September 22, 2016

Do terrorist attacks make a Trump win more likely? Here’s what the research suggests.




This past weekend’s bombings in New York and New Jersey and the stabbing of nine people in a Minnesota mall — now being referred to as terrorist attacks — have led some observers to suggest that these attacks could help Donald Trump. Washington Post reporter Chris Cillizza wrote on Monday that “chaos, uncertainty and anxiety will work in Trump’s favor,” and Trump adviser Alex Castellanos said that “Trump is strength in an uncertain world.”
But is this really true? The 2015 attacks in Paris and San Bernardino didn’t really move polls about a then-hypothetical Trump-Clinton matchup.
Moreover, in a result reported here for the first time, the 2016 Chicago Council Survey found no difference in support for either of the current major-party presidential candidates just after the Orlando shootings in June.


VOX