NPR
Years of delicate diplomacy and decades of geopolitical animosity gave way to a historic agreement Tuesday between six world powers and Iran over the country's nuclear program.
After a final, marathon negotiating session that was preceded by a series of deadline extensions over the course of three weeks, foreign ministers from the U.S., Iran, Russia, China, U.K., France and Germany gave word that they had reached an accord.
Calling on Congress to support the deal, President Obama said the agreement cuts off all the pathways Iran has toward a nuclear weapon. He said the alternative to this deal would leave Iran closer to becoming a nuclear power and would make a military confrontation with Iran more likely.
According to the outline of the deal put out by the Obama administration, the terms would still allow Iran to enrich uranium, but only to 3.67 percent, which is needed for civilian purposes but much lower than would needed for a weapon. The deal also commits Iran to cut down on the number and types of centrifuges it can use, would set up a comprehensive inspections regime and limit the nuclear capabilities of Iran's most controversial nuclear facilities: the underground bunker Fordow and the Arak heavy-water reactor.
Secretary of State John Kerry said the bottom line is that the deal would increase Iran's so-called breakout time — or the time it could take Iran to make enough material for a nuclear bomb. According to Kerry, once the agreement is implemented, Iran's breakout time goes from two to three months to one year or more.
In exchange, the United Nations and Western powers would drop sanctions in phases, giving Iran an infusion of capital and, more importantly, allowing it to rejoin international financial systems and sell more oil.
NPR
We've been studying the 150-page-plus agreement, and we've pulled out six tidbits that will help you understand the deal:
1. It Would Curb Iran's Nuclear Programs:
As President Obama put it in a speech to the nation, the highlight of this deal is that it aims to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. In practical terms, it puts limits on many of Iran's nuclear programs. For example:
— Iran has agreed to turn its Fordow facility into a research center where Iranian and world scientists will work side by side. Fordow, if you remember, has been at the center of international worry, because for years, experts have believed that Iran was enriching uranium in centrifuges there.
Another worry: The facility is located underground, which would make it less vulnerable to a military strike.
— Under the deal, Iran has also agreed to rebuild its Arak heavy-water reactor, which is currently the only site in Iran capable of starting production on weapons-grade plutonium. Under the deal, the site would be rebuilt using a design approved by the international community. The design's point would be to make the production of weapons-grade plutonium impossible.
— The agreement also calls for Iran to give up most of its centrifuges. Under the deal, Iran would go from having 20,000 centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium, to having 6,104 for the next 10 years. Under the deal, Iran also agrees to give up its most advanced centrifuges and use only their oldest models.
2. But It Still Allows Iran To Continue Enrichment:
This part of the deal could be seen as a big win for Iran. The country has always maintained that its nuclear program is being used for peaceful purposes and it has always wanted the international community to acknowledge its right to enrich uranium and use it for those purposes.
The deal allows Iran to continue doing just that at its Natanz facility, but the country would only be allowed to enrich uranium to no more than 3.67 percent, which is enough for civilian purposes such as power plants but is much lower than what's needed for a weapon.
Another big part of the deal is that Iran has agreed to reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98 percent.
As one U.S. administration official, who was briefing reporters on background, put it, Iran currently has 10,000 kg of enriched uranium. The country also has some additional uranium that is enriched at 20 percent.
Under this deal, Iran could keep 300 kg — enriched at no more than 3.67 percent — for the next 15 years. More than likely, Iran will get rid of what it couldn't keep by shipping it to Russia.
The bottom line: If it honors the deal, Iran would not have the kind of fissile material it needs for a nuclear bomb, but at the same time it does receive a nod from the international community that it can indeed keep a non-military nuclear program going.
3. The U.S. Says The Deal Makes An Iranian Nuclear Bomb More Difficult:
Critics of the deal believe that this is a bad deal because it doesn't entirely dismantle Iran's nuclear program.
In a speech to the nation, President Obama said that while that is true, this deal extends Iran's "breakout time" — or the time it would take the country to make enough highly enriched material for a nuclear bomb.
The White House estimates that at the moment, Iran's breakout time is two to three months. The White House estimates that if the deal were implemented and Iran were to someday walk away from it, the breakout time would be a year or more.
Perhaps the biggest unknown is what happens to that breakout time once some of the terms of this deal start to expire 10 and 15 years from now.
In an interview with NPR after the framework of this agreement was reached, President Obama conceded that "at that point the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero."
But this deal, Obama argued at the time, buys the United States at least a decade.
Ten or 15 years from now, Obama added, "we have much better ideas about what it is that their program involves. We have much more insight into their capabilities. And the option of a future president to take action if in fact they try to obtain a nuclear weapon is undiminished."
4. If Iran Doesn't Comply, Sanctions Can Return:
The diplomats have been dancing around the language of this part of the deal. The Obama administration, for example, has said this deal includes a "snap back" provision, which means United Nations' sanctions — the most punishing of the bunch — would be slapped back on Iran if it doesn't meet its obligations.
Diplomats came up with unusual procedure to “snap back” the sanctions against Iran if an eight-member panel determines that Tehran is violating the nuclear provisions. The members of the panel are Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States, the European Union and Iran itself. A majority vote is required, meaning that Russia, China and Iran could not collectively block action.
Secretary of State John Kerry stressed that Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency had “entered into an agreement to address all questions” about Iran’s past actions within three months, and that completing this task was “fundamental for sanctions relief.” Nevertheless, some mysteries remain. For example, it is not clear whether the inspectors would be able to interview the scientists and engineers who were believed to have been at the center of an effort by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to design a weapon that Iran could manufacture.
5. It Sets Up A Comprehensive Inspections Regime:
This is a big part of this deal. According to a White House fact sheet, the deal would give inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency "extraordinary and robust" access to Iranian facilities. Obama says this would give inspectors access 24/7.
Another administration official briefing reporters on background described the agreement as "a forever commitment to providing enhanced transparency."
Here's how the White House fact sheet describes the inspections:
"[The IAEA] will not only be continuously monitoring every element of Iran's declared nuclear program, but they will also be verifying that no fissile material is covertly carted off to a secret location to build a bomb. And if IAEA inspectors become aware of a suspicious location, Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol to their IAEA Safeguards Agreement, which will allow inspectors to access and inspect any site they deem suspicious. Such suspicions can be triggered by holes in the ground that could be uranium mines, intelligence reports, unexplained purchases, or isotope alarms."
6. An arms embargo on conventional weapons and missiles, imposed starting in 2006, would be lifted after five and eight years respectively.
This was one of the last, and most contentious, issues.
After days of haggling, Secretary of State Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, agreed that the missile restrictions would remain for eight years and that a similar ban on the purchase and sale of conventional weapons would be removed in five years.
Those bans would be removed even sooner if the International Atomic Energy Agency reached a definitive conclusion that the Iranian nuclear program is entirely peaceful, and that there was no evidence of cheating on the accord or any activity to obtain weapons covertly.
The provisions on the arms embargo are expected to dominate the coming debate in Congress on the accord.
While the agreement faces heavy opposition from Republicans in Congress, and even some Democrats, Mr. Obama’s chances of prevailing are considered high. Even if the accord is voted down by one or both houses, he could veto that action, and he is likely to have the votes he would need to override the veto. But he has told aides that for an accord as important as this one — which he hopes will usher in a virtual truce with a country that has been a major American adversary for 35 years — he wants a congressional endorsement.
Mr. Obama will also have to manage the breach with Mr. Netanyahu and the leaders of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states who have warned against the deal, saying the relief of sanctions will ultimately empower the Iranians throughout the Middle East.