CHRIS CILLIZZA, WASHINGTON POST
Six weeks from today, the country will vote. (Yes, I am excited!)
While there are still plenty of variables at play, I (and the political class more generally) do know some things -- both about where the races stand today and where they are headed. Here are six things I know.
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| Bruce Braley |
1. The Senate is a toss up. That, in and of itself, is a remarkable statement given how the map so heavily favors Republicans and how historical trends for second term midterms bode so poorly for the President's party. And yet, all of the election models agree that control remains very much a close call -- although, at least right now, they also all suggest that Republicans have an edge -- albeit it a slight one. [Not so slight if you look at the NYT Upshot or Nate Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight. Respectively they give the Rebooblicans a 67% or a 60% chance to take the Senate. Doesn't seem so slight to Esco, but Esco's more than willing to accept the optimism of the Washington Post] Make no mistake: If Republicans fail to take back the Senate with this map, the Democratic retirements that have come this cycle and President Obama's popularity problems, it will be a gigantic swing and miss. And, as of today, it remains a possible if not likely outcome.
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| Sen. Kay Hagan |
2. There are five races that will decide the majority. Alaska, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are the four closest Democratic-held seats, according to the models I wrote about on Monday -- and the ones likely to be the deciding sixth GOP pickup if Republicans win back the Senate. (That assumes wins by Republicans in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas and Louisiana.) Republicans look best in Iowa followed by Alaska, Colorado and North Carolina. (Sen. Kay Hagan's remarkable resilience is a whole blog post of its own.) Then there is Kansas Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, who has developed into the GOP's biggest headache in the final stretch of the race. Roberts is in real danger of losing to independent Greg Orman -- especially now that Democrat Chad Taylor has been removed from the ballot. If Republicans win six Democratic seats and lose Kansas -- thus keeping them from the majority -- Roberts will be the most hated man in Republican politics. And rightly so since this race should never have been a race in the first place.
3. President Obama is a big problem for Democrats. B-I-G. In a series of poll released last week in places like Arkansas, Kentucky and even North Carolina, President Obama's job approval rating never crested 40 percent. In the first two states, he was in the very low 30s. Ask any Democratic consultant what their side's biggest problem is heading into November and they will tell you Obama. Ask any Republican consultant what their side's biggest advantage is heading into November and they will tell you Obama. Bipartisanship! The reality is that for people like Pryor, Landrieu and Alaska's Mark Begich, overperforming the president of their party by 15 or more points is a very tough thing to do. That's true -- to a lesser extent, but still true -- for people like Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Bruce Braley in Iowa and Mark Udall in Colorado. The tough thing for Democrats is that it's getting dangerously close to being too late for a change in Obama's approval numbers to have a real impact on the political dynamic in their state.
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| Steve Israel is the Chairman of the DCCC. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo) |
4. Democrats -- and Democratic-aligned super PACs -- are winning the spending war. This is perhaps the most under-told story of the election. Here's the Wall Street Journal on the trend: "Since July 3, the largest super PACs aligned with Democrats have raised four times the money of pro-GOP super PACs, and have now spent $60 million to Republicans' $38 million, data compiled by The Wall Street Journal shows." And, it's not just on the super PAC side. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee doubled the fundraising haul of its Republican counterpart in August and had an almost $10 million cash edge heading into the fall. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ended August with a $5 million lead over the National Republican Senatorial Committee. And, Republican strategists closely watching ad spending in key Senate races acknowledge that they are being outspent -- in some cases badly -- on TV. In Colorado, for example, Democrats and their allied groups dropped over $1 million on TV ads in the first two weeks of September; Republicans spent just over $300,000. North Carolina and, until recently, Iowa are other examples of where Democrats have used their spending edge to boost their candidates. And, that advantage will get even more important in October. Democrats' early money allowed them to reserve air time at lower rates while Republicans are just now doing that.
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| U.S. Senator Mark Udall, left, and his Republican challenger, Cory Gardner. (Denver Post file photos) |
5. Republicans think the Islamic State is their winning issue. Scott Brown (R) is up with a TV ad this morning attacking President Obama and New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) as "confused about the nature of the threat" posed by the Islamic State. In Colorado, Rep. Cory Gardner (R) has hammered Sen. Mark Udall (D) on the issue; "The only person who doesn't believe [the Islamic State] is an imminent threat is Mark Udall," Gardner told the Denver Post last week. Less than four in ten Americans approved of how President Obama was handling foreign policy in an early September Washington Post-ABC News poll. That same survey showed a majority (53 percent) of people said that Obama had been "too cautious" on foreign affairs. More than seven in ten self-identified Republicans felt that way. Hitting Obama on his response to the Islamic State has become the new hitting Obama on the Affordable Care Act for the Republican base. It remains to be seen whether the ongoing airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria will alter than dynamic.
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| Gov. Tom Corbett (Pa.) |
6. Governors are going down. Yes, there are a handful of very vulnerable Senate incumbents and a handful of sitting House members -- Mike Grimm, I am looking at you -- who won't be coming back for the 114th Congress. But, if you are looking for high-profile incumbents headed toward defeat, the 36 governors races on the ballot in 42 days time is where you should be looking. Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania is a dead man walking and has been for at least a year. Maine's Paul LePage (R) has a chance but that's only because a third party candidate is splitting up the considerable anti-him vote. Democratic governors in Illinois and Connecticut -- two states where Democrats start at the five-yard line and just have to get the ball in the end zone (see this post on political cliches ASAP) -- look to be in bad shape. And, in Kansas, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is in serious jeopardy of losing after a first term in which his main accomplishment was to drive a massive wedge within the state's Republican party. But, wait, there's more! Govs. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Scott Walker (R-Wisc.), Rick Snyder (R-Mich.), John Hickenlooper (D-Co.) and Nathan Deal (R-Ga.) are all in serious races where no one would be surprised if they lost.
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P.S.: As of 9/29/14, All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to the party's strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.