Why Democrats Have Little to Lose in Taking On the Coal Industry

Alison Lundergan Grimes, a Democrat who is challenging  Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate's Republican leader, campaigning at a festival. It is unclear if Ms. Grimes can defeat him without the support from coal country that Democrats have traditionally counted on. Credit Win Mcnamee/Getty Images        

N.Y. TIMES

The Obama administration’s proposal Monday to reduce carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants is already being characterized by Republicans as the latest salvo in a “war on coal.”

The eagerness of Republicans to exploit the issue is understandable. Democrats have lost considerable ground in coal-producing areas in recent years, and their approach has hurt their chances of retaining the Senate.

But because Democrats have already suffered significantly over the issue, the worst is just about over — and at the national level, it is no longer even that painful.

Since Democrats allied with the United Mine Workers in the early 20th century, the region stretching south from western Pennsylvania through West Virginia and eastern Kentucky — sometimes known as coal country —has been among the most reliably Democratic in the nation.

In states like West Virginia and Kentucky, large Democratic margins in coal country were essential to the Democratic pathway to victory statewide. The most Democratic coal counties, like Knott County, Ky., or Logan County, W.Va., voted for Democrats in every presidential election between 1932 and 2004.

But Democrats have suffered huge losses in these areas over the last decade and a half. Al Gore’s environmentalism and Clinton-era regulations, along with cultural issues like gun control, combined to cut into the Democratic advantage. That decline allowed George W. Bush to win West Virginia and the presidency in 2000.

President Obama’s candidacy alienated much of Appalachia. His administration’s attempt to pass cap-and-trade, along with E.P.A. regulations on coal-fired power plants, drained seemingly every remaining ounce of Democratic support there. President Obama lost Knott County by a 48-point margin in 2012, after losing by an 8-point margin in 2008.

 

The war on coal hasn’t hurt the Democrats very much in presidential elections. Since 2000, when coal country and Appalachia helped cost Mr. Gore the presidency, Democrats have built an alternative path to victory with large margins in diverse, well-educated metropolitan areas, like Northern Virginia, Denver and Columbus, Ohio. Additional losses in coal country haven’t changed this because the areas don’t have enough voters to make a difference in battleground states.

 

And coal country has clear boundaries that limit harm to Democrats. In 2012, Mr. Obama suffered significant losses in the coal country of southwestern Virginia, losing as much as a net 30 points in traditionally Democratic Dickenson and Buchanan counties. Yet just a few miles to the east, in counties where there are no coal mines, Mr. Obama retained nearly all of his support. The same was true in southeastern Ohio.

At this point, Democrats don’t have much more to lose by trying to win the war.