Showing posts with label RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE. Show all posts

October 1, 2022

With Bluster and Threats, Russia Announces Annexation of Four Regions of Ukraine

 Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed occupied territories in Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation, blasting the U.S. and its allies as “satanic,” hinting at his willingness to use nuclear weapons, and signaling a sharp escalation in the war as Kyiv vowed to recover its occupied lands.

The rules-based international order was a sinister Western design, he told his audience, one that was rooted in Russophobia. The West itself has “embraced Satanism,” forced drug addiction, gender ambiguity and “the organized hunts of people as if they’re animals” — the latter either a strange reference to American mass shootings or the popularity of Netflix’s “Squid Game.” Nevertheless, such a fallen civilization still had the wherewithal to try and colonize Russia and steal its precious natural resources, he continued before comparing the United States to Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels, accusing it of setting a “precedent” in being the only nation to use nuclear weapons. Then he quoted from his favorite Russian fascist philosopher, Ivan Ilyin: “I believe in the spiritual forces of the Russian people, their spirit — my spirit, its fate is my fate, its suffering is my grief, its flowering is my joy.”

Bringing Russian-controlled Luhansk and areas of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia under Moscow’s control after a series of disputed referendums is a pivotal part of the Russian leader’s war goals. It effectively provides Moscow a land bridge to Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014, which is home to its Black Sea fleet. Seizing Crimea represented the first action of its kind in Europe since the end of World War II, triggering Western sanctions against Russia and upending long-held assumptions about security on the continent.

Claiming the new territories intensifies the crisis in a way that could leave Mr. Putin short of viable off-ramps as the ground war begins to turn against Russia, analysts said.

People gathered near a screen showing Russian President Vladimir Putin as he declared the annexation of the Russian-controlled territories.PHOTO: ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO/REUTERS
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky at a meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council on Friday, in an image supplied by Mr. Zelensky’s office.PHOTO: UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SER/VIA REUTERS

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already pledged to retake the occupied areas, driving Russian forces from lands that he says are rightfully Ukraine’s. On Friday he asked NATO to expedite his country’s application to join the security bloc, saying Ukraine was already a de facto ally of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, though U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine would have to follow the established process.

Western leaders, including President Biden, have been quick to condemn Mr. Putin’s move, however.

“He can’t seize his neighbor’s territory and get away with it. It’s as simple as that,” Mr. Biden said at the White House on Friday as the U.S. government announced fresh sanctions. “America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory. Every single inch. So, Mr. Putin: Don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. Every inch.”

Russian forces have suffered severe setbacks on the battlefields of Ukraine in recent weeks, however, pressuring Mr. Putin, analysts say, and prompting him to launch a mass mobilization of reservists, along with many other fighting-age men who have been swept up in the call-ups.

Many Russian men who have the resources to leave have already taken flights or crossed borders to Kazakhstan, Finland, Georgia and elsewhere to evade the mobilization. A rapid Ukrainian offensive has now retaken some 3,500 square miles of territory that Russia had spent months securing, with Ukrainian forces now pushing slowly toward Russian positions in Luhansk.

On Friday, they were close to encircling Russian troops in Lyman, a strategic town in eastern Ukraine, Russian military bloggers close to the Kremlin said. Russian forces remained in control of the town but faced a “high probability of retreat” from the area, said one of the bloggers, Roman Saponkov.

Losing Lyman, an important logistics hub for Russian forces, would be a major blow to the Kremlin’s war effort in eastern Ukraine.

Sporadic protests have flared across the country, including in some of the more remote regions. On Monday, a 25-year-old Russian man opened fire at a military-recruiting station in Siberia, critically wounding its commander, hours after another man rammed a car into the entrance of a different recruitment center then set it alight with Molotov cocktails.

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Instead of dwelling on the Russian military’s problems, Mr. Putin used his address to excoriate the West, to rapturous applause from the political leaders and government officials assembled at the Kremlin. In particular, he accused Washington of ignoring international law when it suited U.S. interests and of trying to cement America’s hegemony across the globe, at times veering into theological discussions of right and wrong.

“The dictatorship of the Western elites is directed against all societies, including the peoples of the Western countries themselves. This is a challenge to everyone,” Mr. Putin said, warming to his theme. “Such a complete denial of man—the overthrow of faith and traditional values, the suppression of freedom—acquires the features of a ‘reverse religion,’ outright satanism.”

Some regions had already begun distributing Russian passports before referendums were held over the past week to authorize the takeover. Ukraine and Western nations described the voting as a sham.

Opinion polls have suggested that military mobilization would be especially unpopular with Russians, but analysts have said Mr. Putin had few options given the extent of the Russian army’s losses, and a desire among Russian nationalists to deploy more resources to the front lines in Ukraine.

In the meantime, Moscow’s economic advantage over Ukraine is beginning to slip away.

After the invasion in February, Russia managed to weather a storm of Western sanctions thanks to a surge in energy prices, driving up the value of its currency against the dollar. But that windfall appears to be fading as prices fall as the global economic outlook deteriorates. Its federal government budget fell into deficit last month because of the falling revenue. Since then oil prices have declined further, and Russia has stopped most of its remaining natural-gas exports to Europe.

Mr. Biden called a series of leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Europe a “deliberate act of sabotage,” echoing an assessment delivered by NATO on Thursday. He didn’t say who he believes is responsible for the alleged sabotage and ignored follow-up questions from reporters. The president said he is working with NATO allies to investigate the incident and protect critical infrastructure.

The mobilization of some 300,000 additional soldiers, meanwhile, is placing more strain on the economy at a time when Ukraine is continuing to receive military and economic support from the West.

September 25, 2022

Putin’s call-up of more troops highlights Russia’s continuing struggles in Ukraine.

 

Ukrainian solders in Kupiansk, Ukraine.Nicole Tung for The New York Times

Setback after setback

The war news has gone from bad to worse for Vladimir Putin over the past two weeks.

Russia’s recent run of problems began when Ukrainian forces recaptured parts of the country’s northeast in the most successful counterattack of the seven-month war. Since then, Russia’s struggles have grown:

  • Putin yesterday took a step he had been resisting and called up an additional 300,000 troops, mostly former soldiers. Doing so forced him to acknowledge, at least implicitly, that the war was not going as well as he had hoped. The mobilization was “necessary and urgent,” Putin said in a nationally televised speech, because the West had “crossed all lines” by providing weapons to Ukraine.
  • As The Times has reported: “After mostly defending for months, Ukraine is now dictating the war, choosing where it wants to press new offensives.” Russia is on defense.
Data as of Sept. 19. | Sources: Institute for the Study of War; C.N.A. Russia Studies; Rochan Consulting
  • Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine have emboldened a small but growing number of dissidents to speak out. More than 40 local elected officials have signed a petition demanding that Putin resign. A Russian pop star has criticized the war to her 3.4 million Instagram followers. Yesterday, Russian police detained more than 1,200 protesters; in Moscow, crowds shouted, “Send Putin to the trenches!”
  • Some Putin supporters have also grown frustrated and have called for a more aggressive war effort. My colleague Anton Troianovski, The Times’s Moscow bureau chief, says that some of these hawks were particularly alarmed by the unsolved assassination in a Moscow suburb last month of Daria Dugina, a pro-Putin television commentator, viewing her killing as a sign of Putin’s weakness. These hawks were even more alarmed by the Russian military’s stunning retreat in northeastern Ukraine this month, Anton said.
  • During a face-to-face meeting last week with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, Putin acknowledged that China had “questions and concerns” about the war. The comment suggested that Russia’s most important global ally had grown less comfortable with the war.
  • India, which has longstanding military ties with Russia, has also grown more critical. “Today’s era is not of war,” India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, told Putin during another recent meeting. India’s discomfort, in turn, gives China more reason to be concerned about the war: If India moves diplomatically closer to the U.S. and Western Europe, it would create a more powerful bloc to counter China’s rise.

What’s next?

These developments help explain why Putin has chosen to call up additional troops.

For months, he had resisted doing so, partly out of a concern that the move would increase public opposition to the war. Putin calibrated his past public comments to downplay the war at times, and polls suggest that many Russians are not paying much attention to it. He still has declined to institute a full military draft, although yesterday’s order was so broad that he could eventually expand it.

Putin’s national address yesterday.Russian Presidential Press Service, via Associated Press

Western officials called the move an act of desperation and noted that Russia may need months to train and equip the troops. But Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington for The Times, says that the troop mobilization does help address one of Russia’s biggest military problems. “Russia has the equipment but not the manpower,” Julian said. “Ukraine has the manpower but not the equipment.”

Julian added: “The potential countermove for the West is going to be to send more artillery tubes and tanks to Ukraine.”

The U.S., the E.U. and other allies have already sent billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine. Those weapons, especially shoulder-fired and longer-range missiles, have been enormously helpful. President Biden, speaking at the United Nations yesterday, trumpeted this assistance while also warning Putin not to use nuclear weapons.

Still, Ukraine’s leaders say they need additional equipment to force Russian troops out of the country. The Biden administration has requested more funding for Ukraine from Congress.

One question is whether the U.S. would be willing to send longer-range missiles and more modern tanks to Ukraine than allies have previously sent. So far, the West has chosen not to, partly out of a desire to avoid making Putin believe that an invasion of Russia was plausible. In that scenario, Putin might choose to escalate his attacks. Without more tanks, however, Ukraine would likely be at a military disadvantage.

Amid all of Russia’s problems, has anything been going well for Putin lately?

“Militarily, not much has gone right since the summer, when Russia took control of most of the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine,” Julian said. “That said, Russia’s economy is doing better than expected. The sanctions have not totally ground things to a halt. High energy prices mean they can keep the economy going and discontent down. But will the partial mobilization unleash that unrest?”

More on the war

September 22, 2022

Putin announces a call-up of about 300,000 troops to fight Ukraine.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization of reservists is the country’s first since World War II.

Russian president Vladimir Putin announced today that he is mobilizing the Russian population to fight Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu put that number at 300,000 soldiers. At the same time, the legislature abruptly changed the laws to inflict harsh penalties on those who don’t report to military duty, who surrender, or who refuse to fight. Reports suggest that 20–40% of the soldiers from some units have quit.

The cost of airline tickets out of Russia immediately skyrocketed.

Having called for the territories Russia claims to hold referenda on annexation to Russia, and clearly expecting that those votes will call for annexation, Putin also said that “Russia will use all the instruments at its disposal to counter a threat against its territorial integrity—this is not a bluff.” He is arguing that he will consider any Ukrainian attempt to retake its own territory as an attack on Russia and has told his people that the West is responsible for the Ukrainian resistance to Russian conquest. He is threatening to use nuclear weapons to conquer Ukraine, in what seems an admission that Russia is on the ropes. 

Putin began his attack on Ukraine in late February with the expectation it would be short and decisive. More than six months later, the Russian economy is in tatters, the armies are collapsing, and the future of Putin’s administration is uncertain. 

President Joe Biden responded in a speech before the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He reminded his audience that the Ukraine crisis was “a brutal, needless war—a war chosen by one man…. This world should see these outrageous acts for what they are. Putin claims he had to act because Russia was threatened. But no one threatened Russia, and no one other than Russia sought conflict.”

Biden urged the world to stand firm against Russia’s aggression. 

August 27, 2022

 

6 key numbers that reveal the staggering impact of Russia's war in Ukraine

A funeral procession in Lviv, Ukraine, in March ends at grave sites where soldiers Viktor Dudar, 44, and Ivan Koverznev, 24, will be buried, as priests say their blessings and mourners look on.

Claire Harbage/NPR

KYIV, Ukraine — Six months ago, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine. The half-year mark comes on the same day — Aug. 24 — as a national holiday celebrating Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union, an event in 1991 noted for its lack of bloodshed. Today the holiday takes on new meaning for many Ukrainians, as the country continues to fight in what it calls a new "war for independence."

Over the course of six months, the war has captured the world's attention, disrupted the global distribution of food and fuel and left the country reeling. To understand some of the war's impact on Ukraine, here are six key numbers:

1. Over 13 million Ukrainians have been displaced

A woman and her daughter take a train out of Lviv toward Poland in March, leaving her husband behind on the platform.

Claire Harbage/NPR

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. Since February, more than 13 million people have been forced to flee their homes, according to the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR. Nearly 6.7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe, with Poland taking in the largest share. Another 6.6 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine.

Most Ukrainians who have fled the country are women and children, as the government has barred men ages 18 to 60 from leaving. The European Union's migration department says almost 500,000 Ukrainian children have been integrated into schools in EU countries.

Ukrainians displaced by war pour out of the Lviv train station in March.

Claire Harbage/NPR

Meanwhile, as the war has stretched on and shifted course, many Ukrainians are going back home. According to a survey by the International Organization for Migration, 5.5 million previously displaced people have returned home.

2. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians may have lost their lives in the war

The mother (center) of Ukrainian journalist-turned-soldier Viktor Dudar grieves at his grave as he's laid to rest in Lviv in March, as some of the first dead soldiers' bodies are returned home.

Claire Harbage/NPR

Both sides have reported losing military personnel since the invasion began in February. Exact figures are hard to come by, since each country is reluctant to admit losses and often inflates the number of enemy fighters they've killed.

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed forces, said this week at a public forum that Ukraine has lost 9,000 military personnel. The Ukrainian military has also claimed to have killed or wounded 45,200 Russian military personnel, with the largest losses in the eastern Donetsk and southern Mykolaiv regions.

Meanwhile, the U.N. human rights office has documented nearly 5,600 civilians killed in Ukraine during the conflict but believes the actual toll is much higher.

A soldier's funeral in Lviv in March, as some of the first dead soldiers' bodies are returned home.

Claire Harbage/NPR

Russia has been releasing scant information on military casualties. Officials there said 1,351 of their own soldiers died in the first weeks of the war, in March, but have not released updated data since. Independent Russian news outlet iStories says it counted (through open-source information) more than 5,000 Russian service members killed, but that the true number could be higher.

In March, Russian military officials estimated Ukrainian losses at around 14,000 killed and 16,000 out of action.

3. Russia occupies 20% of Ukrainian land

A man herds sheep in Kherson region, near Crimea, in February. The area is now occupied by Russia.

Claire Harbage/NPR

In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. Soon Russian-backed militants declared their intent to separate from Ukraine in the country's far east, launching a conflict that's been locked in a stalemate for nearly eight years.

In February, Russians controlled around 17,000 square miles of Ukrainian land, according to Ukraine's mission to the U.N. — Crimea being the size of Maryland and the self-proclaimed independent "republics" in Ukraine's east amounting to a territory about the size of New Jersey.

Six months into the full-scale invasion, Russia has expanded its territory in Ukraine almost threefold. In June, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia has occupied 20% of the country, or about 47,000 square miles. That's a territory about the size of New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware and much of Maryland combined.

The line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces extends 570 miles, as of Monday.

4. Dozens of countries have pledged billions of dollars in military aid since the war began

Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire at Russian positions from a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, July 14. Weapons supplied by Western countries have significantly boosted the Ukrainian military's capability.

Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

Dozens of countries have supplied Ukraine with military assistance, including weapons systems and training. The bulk of the aid has come from the U.S. With President Biden's announcement Wednesday of another $3 billion, Washington has now committed $10.6 billion in security aid since Russia's February invasion. Billions more will be coming from an aid package passed in May.

On Ukrainian battlefields, Australia has become synonymous with the 88 armored vehicles it's provided, Turkey is known for its roughly 80 combat drones, Britain for the 22,000 soldiers it trained. Other countries have offered logistical support, like the 3.2 million gallons of diesel and jet fuel Slovakia provided.

When it comes to economic warfare, EU member states plus another 18 countries have levied individual sanctions against Russia in the past six months. But experts warn the sanctions could have a limited effect on Russia's export potential, as two-thirds of the world's population is concentrated in the countries that have either stayed neutral or supported Russia, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

5. Ukraine's economy could shrink by as much as 45% because of the invasion

A damaged home in Moshchun, which is tucked into a forest just northwest of Ukraine's capital, in April. Before the Russian invasion, it was a slice of pastoral suburbia, where urbanites had their country cottages and retirees built their dream homes for their golden years.

Claire Harbage/NPR

The invasion has devastated Ukraine's economy across the board. The World Bank estimated in April that the Ukrainian economy could shrink by 45% this year. Last week, Ukraine's economy minister said the country's gross domestic product of $200.9 billion in 2021 is likely to contract between 35% and 40% by the end of the year.

The conflict has cost Ukraine over $113.5 billion in damage, the Kyiv School of Economics says, with housing and transportation infrastructure hit particularly hard. KSE says the country will need upwards of $200 billion to recover.

The Lebanese-flagged bulk carrier Brave Commander is loaded with wheat at the port of Pivdennyi, near the Ukrainian city of Odesa, on Aug. 14. The wheat is destined for Ethiopia, thanks to a deal allowing food shipments to depart Ukraine's ports.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry says grain exports are down 46% from last year due to a five-month blockade of the country's Black Sea ports. And despite a U.N.-brokered deal reached in July to allow food shipments to depart Ukraine, the agriculture sector is still expected to take a huge hit. The country's steel industry has also taken a beating.

Ukraine has lots of friends throughout the world who are trying to help keep its economy afloat. The U.S. alone has already pledged $8.5 billion in financial assistance to Kyiv this year to keep government offices open and staffed and utilities working. Meanwhile, the European Union has given billions of euros to Ukraine since February, and has recently fashioned a package to give 8 billion euros more in financial aid over the next six months.

6. Bake sales, spare change and "St. Javelin" have raised over $500 million in private money to help Ukraine

A mural known as St. Javelin — showing a meme of the Virgin Mary cradling a U.S.-made anti-tank Javelin launcher — on the wall of an apartment building in Kyiv on May 24.

Oleksii Chumachenko/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

In February, a Canadian-Ukrainian writer, Christian Borys, and California artist Chris Shaw created a meme of a woman appearing like the Virgin Mary holding a rocket launcher. Borys called it "St. Javelin," after the U.S.-supplied anti-tank missiles. Since then, he's formed the meme into a brand that has sold more than $3 million worth of stickers and other merchandise to help Ukraine.

Borys' initiative is one of hundreds like it.

In June, Ukrainian TV personality Serhiy Prytula asked his fans to buy him a Turkish-made drone priced at $5 millionHe ended up raising $55 million. Baykar, the company that makes the drone, refused to take the money. Instead, the company donated three drones. In August, Prytula used the funds he raised to purchase a reconnaissance satellite for Ukrainian intelligence.

As of July, Ukraine's National Bank reports to have collected $530 million in donations for the Ukrainian military — mostly from people rounding up at shop cash registers and fundraisers in the country. On Tuesday, residents of the small western Ukrainian town of Dubno raised $866.55 at a bake sale and flea market for the military.

New graves and freshly dug holes for Ukrainian soldiers line the edge of a cemetery in Kyiv on Aug. 24.

Claire Harbage/NPR