HOW DEBLASIO WON: The Commercial Only Tells Part o/t Story

A pivotal campaign commercial featured Mr. de Blasio and his son, Dante.

N.Y. TIMES:

From the start, Mr. de Blasio understood the perils of running an anti-establishment campaign against a capable and generally well-regarded incumbent: In large numbers, Democrats in New York approved of the job that Mr. Bloomberg was doing, and thought the city was on the right track.

 

....[But] After 12 years of any mayor, they reasoned, the electorate craved something fundamentally different in substance and style. A survey conducted in the fall of 2012 by the de Blasio campaign’s pollster put hard numbers behind the theory: a slight majority of Democrats wanted a change in direction in the mayor’s office.       

Even some who approved of Mr. Bloomberg, the pollster found, felt oddly disconnected with him, believing that he had emphasized his own pet issues — soda sizes, bike lanes, pedestrian plazas — rather than the real-life worries that filled their days.

“A vanity mayor,” the de Blasio campaign called him.

 

The problem was that few Democrats knew much of anything about Mr. de Blasio. His position as the city’s public advocate was low-wattage, his personality could seem professorial....

 

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...when the commercial was finally shown to the candidate and his wife, they seemed overcome, instantly recognizing the power of its message: that the aggressive policing of the Bloomberg era was not an abstraction to Mr. de Blasio, it was an urgent personal worry within his biracial household.

“This,” predicted the campaign’s pollster, Anna Greenberg, “will be huge.”

 

The ad exploded, transforming the fortunes of a fourth-place campaign and confirming the convictions of a long-shot politician who had banked his candidacy on a series of big bets: that a relentless critique of the Police Department’s stop-and-frisk tactic would resonate with white New Yorkers, not scare them off; that in a city of tribal politics an Italian-American could win the hearts of black voters; that a tired-seeming message about a tale of two cities would stir those people still hurting after a traumatic economic recession; and, most of all, that there was far greater unhappiness with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg than polls had registered or Mr. de Blasio’s rivals had realized.

 

 

 

It marked a crucial moment for Mr. de Blasio: he had begun to assert ownership over the volatile issue of the stop-and-frisk tactic, which Mr. de Blasio’s aides knew from focus groups was roiling the city’s African-American neighborhoods.       

They expected a fierce battle with Mr. Thompson, a former city comptroller, over who would be the most fervent opponent of the practice and became increasingly puzzled throughout the summer when the fight never materialized. Instead of calling for an end to the tactic, Mr. Thompson refused to support two City Council bills cracking down on the Police Department and scored the endorsement of unions representing law enforcement officers in the process.

“We were floored,” recalled a top adviser to Mr. de Blasio.

Suddenly, the black vote seemed to be up for grabs and the de Blasio campaign moved aggressively to exploit the opening. The political establishment took it for granted that Mr. Sharpton, a friend of Mr. Thompson’s since their youth and a cheerleader for his rise through the city’s black power structure, would endorse his Harlem neighbor.

But Mr. de Blasio, who had long courted Mr. Sharpton, attending his rallies and flattering him by soliciting his advice, now deployed his team to block Mr. Thompson’s path, seeking to snatch the endorsement for himself.

 

photo by David Shankbone

 Mr. Sharpton, it turned out, needed little nudging to turn on Mr. Thompson. He was privately furious over Mr. Thompson’s opposition to the two Council bills, asking a friend, “What kind of a campaign is he running?”       

Thompson aides reassured themselves that Mr. Sharpton would eventually come around.

Then, days after the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington, Mr. Thompson got a call: Mr. Sharpton could not grant his blessing, and would stay out of the race entirely. Mr. Thompson was crestfallen. He asked Mr. Sharpton to reconsider.

“I can’t reconsider what I believe in,” Mr. Sharpton responded.

 

Mr. de Blasio also got lucky: One by one, his opponents stumbled. ...Mr. Weiner, of course, saw his candidacy collapse amid bizarre new revelations about his online behavior. Christine C. Quinn pursued a message of upbeat continuity, not to end the Bloomberg era but to improve it, never grappling with the still raw feelings toward the mayor and the term limits extension she helped engineer for him.

 

Christine Quinn Leads Mayoral Polls but Remains Vulnerable in a Run-off

THE GUARDIAN

A New York Times/Siena College poll this week confirmed Quinn's position as frontrunner to become the Democratic candidate in November's mayoral election. That in turn makes favourite to replace the current incumbent, Michael Bloomberg, as resident of Gracie Mansion.
A Quinn victory would make her New York's first woman, and lesbian, mayor. On a more political note her mayoralty would mark the return of the Democratic party as the natural leaders of this predominantly liberal city, following almost 20 years of Republican/Independent stewardship under Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg.
In some regards, the tea leaves look good for "Mayor Quinn". Her main rival, Anthony Weiner, has all but combusted into a puff of smoke following the revelation that his digital indiscretions with women were more than a one-off blip. Though Weiner is bucking sense and sticking in the race, his poll numbers are now down to a moribund 10% of Democratic voters in the Siena College poll....

But despite the frontrunner status, Quinn's position remains precarious. With the clock ticking on the Democratic primary election on 10 September, her 25% backing among registered Democratic voters lags far behind the 40% she needs to become her party's outright choice, first time around....

A closer look at the poll figures shows that Weiner's self-implosion has been to the advantage not of Quinn, who has actually fallen three points since Siena's previous poll in July, but of the "two Bills" – Bill Thompson and Bill de Blasio – who are vying for second place if the race goes to a runoff. Thompson has sucked up much of Weiner's declining support, rising five points to 19% in the Siena College poll, while De Blasio has gained three points to 14%.
Quinn's inability to establish a convincing lead over her opponents is partly explained by her reputation, garnered over seven years as speaker of New York City council, for being a career politician who can be abrasive and scheming in her pursuit of power. It is also partly explained by the elephant in the room of this year's mayoral race: Bloomberg.



After more than 11 years in the job, the billionaire has recast the mayoralty very much in his own mould. With his vast fortune, Wall Street confidence, celebrity status and a track record of visionary reforms that have put New York back at the forefront of global cities – the smoking ban, transformation of the waterfront, revitalisation of the city's skyline, bike lanes, a plummeting murder rate, the list goes on – Bloomberg is a formidable act to follow...
Bloomberg's spectral figure looming over the mayoral race is a problem for Quinn, who is caricatured by her opponents as a Mini-Me. Her help relaxing term limits to allow Bloomberg to serve a third term as mayor in 2008 is used as a stick to beat her.

The 2013 race has become to some degree a post-mortem on Bloomberg's era and a referendum on the kind of sparkling, modern but highly unequal city that has emerged under him. Quinn is polling well among households earning more than $100,000 in Manhattan, the Siena College poll shows, but over in the outer boroughs the electorate is unsettled and seething.
As the Nation magazine pointed out about what it dubbed the "gilded city", the richest 1% of New Yorkers now earns 39% of the total city income, up from 27% when Bloomberg became mayor. The population of homeless people during his epoch increased by 61% and, in the most contentious aspect of his reign, largely black and Hispanic people were stopped and frisked on the street some five million times.



Thompson, lost to Bloomberg in the mayoral race four years ago. [N.Y. Times:] His team is telling would-be supporters he will create a modernized Dinkins-like mosaic, carrying still-ardent African-Americans and attracting the ascendant Latino voting bloc, even as he builds a bridge to the city’s corporate crowd. (One example: his measured approach to the polarizing police tactic called stop and frisk. He is proposing to hire 2000 additional police officers. ) By zeroing in on their needs, he has quietly established allies within the Orthodox Jewish community, a prized slice of the electoral pie. He is trying to convince skeptical donors that he has fire in the belly despite a sometimes retiring style. But rather than turning up the energy, lately he has been turning up the volume, shouting zingers and pounding tables. [Guardian, (Cont'd):] As a result he has eaten into Quinn's numbers by drawing 24% support among black voters, above her 18%.

In reply, as Friday's event showed, Quinn has courted the city's large and growing Hispanic community who may make up as many as one in five of the electorate in November. But as they scrap for every last vote, the three remaining serious Democratic candidates in the race know that their coffers are limited.

CARLOS IN DANGER: WEINER DROPS TO 4th IN POLLS. QUINN LEADS

HUFFINGTON POST

Anthony Weiner has dropped from the front of the pack to fourth place in the Democratic primary for New York City's mayoral race, a poll released Monday by Quinnipiac University finds, with voters increasingly viewing his personal history as a legitimate issue in the election.
City Council Speaker Christine Quinn now leads the primary field with 27 percent of likely Democratic voters, with Public Advocate Bill de Blasio and former Comptroller Bill Thompson taking 21 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Weiner, a former congressman, has just 16 percent.
In the last Quinnipiac poll, taken just before he admitted to sending inappropriate messages and lewd photos to women as recently as last summer, Weiner had a 4-point lead over Quinn.
"With six weeks to go, anything can happen, but it looks like former Congressman Anthony Weiner may have sexted himself right out of the race for New York City mayor," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.




Consistently strong polling by Quinn, the frontrunner in most surveys, belies her potential vulnerability in a mayoral runoff, to be held if no one candidate gains 40% of the vote. Quinn's net favorability rating has lagged both De Blasio and Thompson, potential runoff opponents. A Quinnipiac poll last week of a hypothetical Democratic runoff between Quinn and Thompson found Thompson out front 51-42.
Monday's poll has Quinn losing a hypothetical runoff against Thompson by 10 points, 50-40.

WEINER LEADS QUINN IN LATEST MAYORAL POLL

WALL STREET JOURNAL

Former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner captured the frontrunner's mantle in the race for the Democratic mayoral nomination, leading City Council Speaker Christine Quinn for the first time and running neck-and-neck with her in a potential runoff, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist poll.Just two years after a sexting scandal derailed his career, Mr. Weiner garnered 25% of registered Democrats polled, compared with Ms. Quinn, who had 20%, marking her lowest level of support since polling of the race began. Trailing them were former Comptroller Bill Thompson, at 13%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, 10%, and city Comptroller John Liu, 8%.

Mr. Weiner also has made gains in an all-but-certain runoff election expected to determine the Democratic nominee. In a potential runoff matchup, Ms. Quinn leads Mr. Weiner, 44% to 42%; a month ago, the margin was much wider, with Ms. Quinn winning 48% to 33%.

Nearly half of all registered voters would be willing to vote for [Mr. Weiner] for mayor, and more than half of Democrats view him positively, according to the poll....The survey also demonstrates the toll that months of bruising criticism on the campaign trail have taken on Ms. Quinn, who has been pummeled over issues such as overturning term limits and her alliance with Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Her level of support among Democrats has fallen nearly in half.

 The poll showed all of the major Democrats defeating Messrs.Joseph Lhota or John Catsimatidis in the general election. In one scenario, Ms. Quinn has 52% of registered voters, compared with Mr. Lhota at 15%,

CBS News reported Ms Quinn fared slightly better in a new Quinnipiac University poll. In the survey, 17 percent of respondents voiced support for disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., putting him about even with City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former City Comptroller William Thompson, who have 19 and 16 percent, respectively.