IN SO CAR, TRUMP SOUNDLY BEATS RUBIO AND CRUZ, BY 10%. IN NEV, CLINTON DECISIVELY BEATS SANDERS BY 5%. BUSH DROPS OUT.

NY TIMES


In his emotional seven-minute farewell to a Republican Party that elevated his father and brother to the White House, there were two words that a choked-up Jeb Bush could not bring himself to utter: “Donald Trump.”

“It’s an enormous moment,” said Steve Schmidt, a top Republican strategist on John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008 and George W Bush’s in 2004. Unless further rivals immediately quit the race, “it’s very difficult to see how he is stopped on his way to the nomination.”



Even as he won in South Carolina, Mr. Trump seemed to overstay his welcome, revealing a tendency to test voters’ patience. In South Carolina, late-deciding voters made up 45 percent of the Republican electorate, and they uniformly scorned Mr. Trump. And surveys suggest that even some Republicans find him unlikable and lacking in compassion.

What’s more, so much of Mr. Trump’s campaign and his conduct remain startlingly unpredictable, from his spats with the pope to his shifting memories of his previous positions on momentous issues, such as his opposition (then later support, then opposition again) for the American-led invasion of Iraq.  In both states, he won decisively among both men and women, independents, voters without college degrees and those age 45 and over.

In South Carolina, he prevailed even after a brutal and deflating week, in which he was loudly and repeatedly booed on stage during a Republican debate; was denounced by the global head of the Catholic Church; praised Saddam Hussein as an effective fighter of terrorism; and declared that torture “works.”

VOX

Trump's Palmetto State win is also significant because Trump won the first Southern contest. It seemed, in theory, that the evangelical, staunchly conservative Texan Ted Cruz could be more appealing to Southern voters than Trump, a New Yorker who is not particularly ideologically conservative or religious. Yet Trump's anti-immigration message — focused on "making America great again" — seems to have resonated here.

That could matter a great deal, because those Super Tuesday states coming up so soon are mainly Southern states. If Trump follows up his win today with similar wins in states like Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas on Super Tuesday, he could rack up a pretty sizable delegate lead — and his remaining rivals would have to scramble to try and catch up.

The Republican nomination contest has entered a very dangerous phase for GOP elites. Only Donald Trump and Ted Cruz — both of whom they loathe — have won contests so far. And the upcoming calendar and delegate allocation rules could make it difficult for a mainstream contender like Marco Rubio to win many delegates if the field remains crowded, as the Upshot's Nate Cohn has written.

So, can Trump still be stopped?

The answer to that question is that, so long as the GOP field remains divided, Trump has a big opportunity to roll to a series of victories and rack up delegates. So, unless one clear challenger to Trump establishes himself soon, the outlook for his campaign will seem better than ever.

The problems going forward for Cruz:

 Even if Trump beats him in many of the Southern Super Tuesday contests, he could perform strongly enough to win second place in many of them. But the back half of the primary calendar is filled with relatively few "red" states — instead, the biggest delegate hauls will be found in big blue states like New York, Pennsylvania, and California. And it doesn't seem likely that Cruz can be competitive with Trump in blue states.

 Cruz's strategy hinges on winning the South. So losing to Trump by 10 points in what was supposed to be Cruz country — Southern, conservative and evangelical — is a big blow to his campaign.

And many large Southern states will start voting very soon. In just 10 days, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will all vote on Super Tuesday, alongside Cruz's home state of Texas and a few states from other regions. If Trump can replicate his South Carolina success in many of those other Southern states, it's very hard to see a path to victory for the Texas senator. 

But, by placing second to Trump in the Southern states, Cruz can place a big hurt on Rubio. 

Even if Trump beats him in many of the Southern Super Tuesday contests, Cruz could perform strongly enough to win second place in many of them. Many of these states allot a large share of their delegates by congressional district — three per district, with two going to the winner, one to the second-place finisher, and zero to whoever gets third.

So if Cruz prevents Rubio from taking second in many of these states, he could make the Florida senator miss out on lots of Southern state delegates — effectively putting Rubio even further behind Trump. And with so many delegates already allotted by mid-March, Rubio would face an uphill struggle to close the gap.

Many of the biggest blue- or purple-state delegate prizes — like New York, Pennsylvania, and California — vote in April or later. It's hard to see Cruz beating Rubio in the Northeast or on the West Coast. In states like those Rubio could have a shot at beating Trump head to head. 

Also, one would think, Rubio would win his home state of Florida, a big winner-take-all delegate prize set to vote on March 15. 

But, beyond Florida, there's still one lingering establishment loose end, and his name is John Kasich.

Most observers think Kasich is drawing away votes from Rubio. And he could well pick up some of Jeb Bush's supporters too, now that Bush is out.

Kasich's advisers are vowing that he'll stay in the race despite his poor performance in South Carolina. He did, after all, finish second in New Hampshire. So his strategy going forward is to essentially ignore the South and instead target Super Tuesday Northeastern states, the March 8 Michigan primary, and his home state of Ohio (which holds a winner-take-all contest on March 15).

The Ohio governor's strategy is particularly problematic for Rubio because over half of overall delegates will be awarded by the time the dust settles on March 15. So, unless Kasich's support plummets before then, he could well draw enough votes to prevent Rubio from winning some states.

But assuming Rubio survives this obstacle course, Republican elites are pretty confident that Rubio can beat Trump one-on-one, and that makes sense. Rubio's favorable ratings among Republican primary voters are far higher than Trump's. And he's led Trump in some head-to-head polls.

But Trump hasn't seriously attacked Rubio yet.

When Ben Carson looked like a threat to Trump, Trump took him down. When Jeb Bush looked like a threat to Trump, Trump took him down. And when Ted Cruz looked like a threat to Trump, Trump took him down.

Trump will be far more unscrupulous once he sets his sights on Rubio. He will be willing to play to GOP base voters' worst ethnic and racial fears. He will bring up Rubio's brother-in-law, who was convicted for cocaine trafficking. He will publicly spread the rumors about Rubio that Bush's team just whispered about privately. And, of course, there's that matter of immigration reform, which Bush couldn't attack Rubio on.

Point is, things will get very, very ugly. We don't yet know whether Rubio can beat Trump in a knife fight. But, to win the nomination, that's what he's going to have to pull off.

NY TIMES

On the Democratic side, the entrance poll in Nevada showed Mrs. Clinton’s strongest support came from her coalition of women, older voters, blacks, college graduates, political moderates, union households and those who have voted in previous caucuses. Mrs. Clinton’s strong showing among black voters (she was backed by three-quarters of African-Americans), bodes well as she heads to South Carolina, where blacks made up 55 percent of the 2008 Democratic primary electorate.

Mrs. Clinton also won the support of caucusg oers who favored experience or the ability to win in November. She also performed best among those who preferred a continuation of President Obama’s policies and those who rated the economy or health care as the most important issue facing the country.

Mr. Sanders drew his support from men, Hispanics, liberals, first-time caucus goers and young people. While his support among young voters continued to be strong in Nevada, only a little over one-third of participants in the caucuses were under the age of 45.

Those who most valued honesty and trustworthiness, as well as those preferring a candidate who cares about people like them, sided with Mr. Sanders. He beat Mrs. Clinton by 2 to 1 among those who valued income inequality above all other issues.

VOX

Clinton won the most votes and the most delegates. Not by a landslide, but by enough to break Sanders' momentum. The number of delegates at stake was not enormous and Nevada is in no way decisive, but the map ahead looks very rough for Sanders.

Next up is the South Carolina primary and it is going to feature a huge quantity of African-American voters with whom Clinton has an enormous advantage. Then comes Super Tuesday on March 1 featuring many other black-heavy southern states. The race isn't over yet, but Clinton is breathing a huge sigh of relief and Sanders' path to victory now looks very difficult.

Winner: Democratic socialism

Clinton has formidable advantages in this campaign — including a much broader network of endorsers, surrogates, and policy experts along with superior name recognition and a bigger, more experienced staff. Sanders had really only one advantage: A message about transforming the Democratic Party into a much more ideologically rigorous political party than its historically been, advocating a robust European-stye social democratic agenda of free public provision of health care and higher education. It looks like this message won't be enough to put Sanders over the top, but it took him much closer than the Democratic establishment believed possible twelve, six, or even three months ago. Ambitious politicians in the party are going to be paying attention, and something like the Sanders agenda will be the agenda of the Democratic Party's future.

Loser: The political revolution

Sanders has brought two distinctive ideas to the 2016 primary campaign. One is a policy agenda. The other is a theory of politics, the notion that a candidate who eschewed corporate cash and spoke bold truths could spark a political revolution grounded in mobilizing vast hordes of new voters. What we're seeing so far is that there's no sign this works.

Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston reports Democratic turnout at 80,000. It was almost 108,000 in '08.

Sanders is doing very well with young people and with liberals, but he's not transforming electorates and even if he were to win the nomination he would still have to grapple with the basic reality that the median voter in the United States is politically moderate.

THE REPUBLICAN CASE FOR & AGAINST JEB BUSH (SHOULD HE CHOOSE TO RUN)

538, HARRY ENTIN

Earlier this week, Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith wrote a piece about the presidential prospects of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has been receiving more media attention since the dimming of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s star. Smith put it concisely — “Jeb Bush is a terrible candidate” — and argued that Bush is out of touch with the Republican base on such issues as education policy and immigration reform (although polling paints a muddy picture of how the majority of Republicans feel about immigration). He also compared Bush with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who flailed in his 2012 presidential run.

There’s no data set I know of that can predict with any reasonable confidence whether Bush is going to run or not. And if he does, Smith may end up being correct. Bush hasn’t run for office since 2002. He could be rusty or make too many statements out of line with the Republican mainstream, as Huntsman did.

Bush does have more going for him than Huntsman ever did. Besides not having worked for President Obama, Bush has more establishment support, a more conservative record and is affiliated with a brand that Republicans have voted for and still like. In a divided field, that means he has as good a chance as any Republican of winning the party’s nomination.

 

 The Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa, who are well sourced among Republican insiders, wrote that the GOP “establishment” is encouraging Bush to run. Leaders in the financial sector and evangelical community have been doing the same. One of Rucker and Costa’s sources said that the “vast majority” of 2012 GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s top donors would back Bush in a competitive nomination.

In the GOP, establishment support has usually foretold who will win the party’s nod. When a Republican candidate has won the majority of endorsements from GOP public officials, he has also won the nomination, as discussed in the book “The Party Decides.” Romney, for instance, took the most endorsements in 2012.

It may be true, as Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz pointed out, that the tea party is the “most politically active segment of the GOP electoral base.” But since Barry Goldwater took the Republican nomination in 1964, politicians who have challenged the establishment candidate from the right have always lost: Rick Santorum in 2012, Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 are some examples; Ronald Reagan won the nomination in 1980 after gathering establishment support, but not in 1976 when he challenged Gerald Ford.





Bush’s overall policy positions look like those of previous GOP nominees over the past 50 years. In an analysis of different ideological rating systems by FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver, Bush’s ideology was similar on a left-right scale to Romney’s and John McCain’s.

Voters who support less extreme candidates can still swing Republican nominations, according to Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a conservative advocacy group. (Just ask Romney and McCain.) And even very conservative Republicans are concerned about winning the White House: The ability to defeat Obama was the No. 1 most important quality for a candidate in 2012. The GOP insiders that Rucker and Costa cite have deemed Bush an electable candidate (for now).

2016 could be different if the tea party has its way. But — as “The Party Decides” found —  the longer a party has been out of the White House, the more it tends to nominate more moderate candidates. That’s not to say that potential nominees won’t try to placate the tea party, or religious conservatives like those who voted for Santorum. But such groups’ influence could be lessened as Republicans contemplate 12 or 16 years without one of their own in the White House.

 

 Bush’s familiar last name should help as well. Every Republican nominee since 1968 has satisfied one of three criteria: He’s had a family member who’d won the presidency; he’s been on a winning presidential ticket himself; or he’s come in second in a prior nomination season. These are admittedly broad criteria, but Republicans haven’t nominated relative unknowns, unlike Democrats with their Mike Dukakises and Jimmy Carters.

Of course, the Bush brand was damaged by Jeb’s brother George. Even so, George W. Bush has averaged a favorable rating in the mid-80s among Republicans. That’s only about 5 percentage points lower than Bill Clinton’s among Democrats.

Any analysis of primary politics is going to have a large amount of uncertainty, since primaries have decided presidential nominations only since 1976. That’s especially the case now, when we’re almost two years away from the first primary. There’s still no front-runner for 2016 — but Bush is a good candidate, not a terrible one.

JEB BUSH: Wil He Or Wont He?

Why Jeb Bush is the single biggest question mark in the 2016 sweepstakes

There are a great many unanswered questions about the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. But at this point, none are as big as this one: Will Jeb Bush run?

There are two simple reasons why. 1) No other top tier Republican has the potential to alter the landscape of the primary as broadly as the former Florida governor. 2) No other top tier Republican has broadcast as much genuine uncertainty about his plans.

Let's talk about the first reason first. No matter what he decides, Bush's decision will hold significant implications for the dynamic of the Republican race.
To begin with, Bush's prospects of winning the Republican nomination look better than most. So if he doesn't run, he'll leave a large pool of likely voters up for grabs. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll released Thursday shows Bush near the top of a wide open field. He has the support of 18 percent of Republicans, second only to Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), a well-known figure who has run for vice president and has been in the news a lot lately. Ryan clocks in at 20 percent.

Bush occupies a unique spot in the 2016 sweepstakes because of his appeal to both the GOP establishment (we're talking donors and other traditional power-brokers) and the conservative grassroots. One of Bush's signature issues is education, a hot topic among movement conservatives.
On the establishment side, Bush would compete for many of the same donors that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) would go after. If Bush doesn't run, Christie, should he run, will have an easier time rounding up their support. If Bush does run, then, well, things could get awfully interesting in the money chase.



Then there's Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Bush mentored Rubio as he rose through the ranks and it's an open question whether Rubio would run if Bush does. If Bush doesn't run, it becomes much easier to see Rubio entering the mix.
Now to the second point. Compared to Christie, Rubio, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Gov. Scott Walker (R), who have each taken steps to raise their profiles and have done little to tamp down speculation they will run, Bush really seems like he is in the midst of a tough decision-making process.
"I'm deferring the decision to the right time which is later this year," Bush said Wednesday during a school tour.
The fact that the will-he-or-won't-he questions continue to surround Bush in a way they don't surround other potential candidates has solidified his position Variable No. 1 in the potential campaign.
Also worth bearing in mind: Bush's mother Barbara Bush has made no secret of the fact that she doesn't want her son to run. "He's by far the best qualified man, but no, I really don't," the former first lady said last year.


That's only one of many reasons that may push Bush away from the idea of a run. Others include whether he wants to deal with the fresh spotlight on the lingering negativity from George W. Bush's White House tenure and whether he running for president is what he wants to do day in and day out for two years.
"The decision will be based on, can I do it joyfully, because I think we need to have candidates lift our spirits," he added on Wednesday.
For all these reasons, it's safe to say there will be HUGE interest from all corners of the GOP in Bush's decision, whenever he announces it.