NY TIMES RICHARD W. STEVENSON
The newfound urgency among Republicans to improve their standing among Hispanic voters is not the only reason that an immigration policy overhaul may have a better chance this year than in 2007, when Congress last tried to confront the issue and failed.
By some key measures, the problems underlying illegal immigration — the economic and demographic pressures that have drawn Mexicans north for decades in search of jobs and a better life, and the challenges for the United States of securing its borders — have diminished over the past six years.
The Mexican economy, while still riddled with inefficiency and inequality, is nonetheless humming along, providing many more job opportunities for Mexican workers. And in Mexico, the source of about 6 in 10 illegal immigrants in the United States, the birthrate has plummeted over the last few decades, shrinking the pool of potential emigrants.
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At the same time, one of the most contentious elements in previous battles over the issue — border security — has also become less of a partisan flash point. Even among border-state Republicans, there is optimism that the billions of dollars spent in recent years on fences, additional agents, surveillance drones and other measures is having a real effect.
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There is still debate about whether the changes are permanent or would be reversed in the event of another sharp economic downturn in Mexico or across Latin America — or a strong rebound in economic growth and demand for labor in the United States.
But for now the population of illegal immigrants in the United States shows little sign of growth. It fell to 11.1 million in 2011, the most recent year for which figures are available, from a peak of 12 million in 2007, the Pew Hispanic Center said in a report on Tuesday. By one new estimate, the number of people who managed to cross the Mexican border illegally into the United States fell to 85,000 in 2011, down from 600,000 five years earlier.
With the scale of the problem stabilizing for the moment, or even shrinking, some experts say, there is more room for political compromise than the last time around.
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...The number of people under 15 years old is declining in Mexico, and the number of people ages 15 to 29 will start doing so in the coming years, an important shift given that most illegal immigrants arrive in the United States before age 30.
Children are staying in school longer, an indication of an intention not to emigrate in search of low-skill employment, and the development of a middle class has further depleted the numbers of Mexicans compelled to seek a livelihood in the United States.
The statistics at the border are also striking evidence of a diminished flow of people seeking to cross into the United States illegally. Reflecting in part the deterrent effect of tighter border patrols, as well as the economic and demographic shifts, the number of apprehensions along the border has fallen sharply. Those people who have gotten through
are being caught and deported at record-high rates.
Some analysts say the drop in apprehensions reflects not so much greater control of the border as a recognition by potential immigrants that the chances of finding a job in the United States have fallen over the past few years. And in any case the decline does not alter the most compelling fact of the debate to both sides, which is that there are 11 million undocumented people already living in the United States whose status must be addressed in any comprehensive legislation.
But even though the economic and demographic changes have remained largely in the background of the debate, analysts say they could offer more reassurance to conservatives in particular that giving legal status to those immigrants would not simply produce another wave of them.
Still, some skepticism about changes to immigration policy remains. Mexico continues to suffer from social instability, and the prolonged weakness in the American labor market makes it harder to draw long-term conclusions about the relative attraction of coming to the United States. Many Republicans continue to view Mexico warily, seeing in the government’s difficulties in controlling the violence and general lawlessness created by drug cartels a dangerous instability that could create deeper cross-border troubles.
WASHINGTON POST
Republicans are anxious to get something done on immigration reform in light of their growing electoral slippage among Latino voters.
But even if doing comprehensive reform helps repair the GOP’s image with the Hispanic community and increases its share of the Hispanic vote, one thing has gotten lost in all of this: The GOP would potentially be helping to give millions more Democratic-leaning Latinos the right to vote.
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Pew Hispanic Center study last year showed there were 24 million eligible Hispanic voters in the United States and about 16 million Hispanic kids who will be eligible to vote when they turn 18. That means 40 million eligible Hispanic voters by 2030.
But if there is some kind of a path to citizenship in the immigration bill — as is expected — that pool will grow even larger. Just how large, of course, depends on how quickly and easily illegal immigrants and legal permanent residents could attain citizenship — something that will be a significant issue in the ongoing discussions in Congress.
Pew estimated last year that there are 5.4 million adult legal permanent residents and 7.1 million adult illegal immigrants in the United States, which makes them about half as big as the current voting-eligible population.
These voters are more Democratic than Republican, though not as clearly left-leaning as current registered Hispanic voters.
Pew’s polling in October showed 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters identify or lean toward Democrats, while 22 percent favor the GOP — a 48-point Democratic advantage.
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For Republicans, it’s a very difficult set of circumstances. They feel the need to do something on immigration in order to stop their hemorrhaging among Latino voters, but it’s
unlikely that doing so will immediately reverse their fortunes with Latinos. And if Latinos continue to vote heavily Democratic, Republicans might only be helping to give the other party more voters to win.
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FEB 20, 2013
Americans may not be as keen to ease immigration laws as the Obama administration is. According to a new poll, more than half of U.S. citizens think most or all 11 million illegal immigrants in the country should be deported. The Reuters and Ipsos released Wednesday found a quarter of those polled believe all illegal immigrants should be sent home, and a third said most should be allowed to stay. This fits the trajectory of polls in recent years. "It's not Americans' views that are shifting. It is that the political climate is ripe for this discussion," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark says.
