The Last Day Before the Election

Republican Campaign

In Grand Rapids, Michigan. Doug Mills/The New York Times


Trump held his final rally in Grand Rapids, Mich. He repeated his false claim that Democrats cheat and told his supporters that if he loses, “We would only have you to blame.”

At the rally, Trump stopped short of calling Nancy Pelosi an epithet. “It starts with a b, but I won’t say it,” he said.

Trump’s closing events have featured many empty seats and streams of audience members leaving early.

Joe Rogan, the popular podcaster who’s had Trump and JD Vance on his show, endorsed Trump. So did Megyn Kelly, the former Fox host, who called Trump “a protector of women.”

The Arab American mayor of Hamtramck, Mich., urged Arab Americans and Muslims to back Trump.

Trump has pledged to let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “go wild on health” if he wins. Kennedy is a vaccine conspiracy theorist and opposes adding fluoride to drinking water.

“I’ll fix it,” Trump says of inflation, illegal immigration and crime. In fact, all three are largely back to normal.


Democratic Campaign

In Philadelphia. Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Harris held her last rally in Philadelphia. Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin performed, and 30,000 people attended.

Harris’s campaign held eight simultaneous rallies in the seven swing states, playing the events from each rally at the others.

Harris also knocked on doors in a Pennsylvania neighborhood and visited campaign volunteers in Scranton.

Tim Walz, campaigning in Michigan, made a pitch to men, whom Trump is also courting. “I want you to think about the women in your life that you love,” Walz said. “Their lives are at stake in this election.”


Polling

A well-regarded poll showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa, where Republicans have been expecting a clear win. The result surprised the pollster. It could indicate late movement toward Harris, or it could be a fluke.

The polls may be close but that does not necessarily mean there will be a close result.
Nate Cohn explains four ways the election could unfold.

Voting

U.S. intelligence agencies warned that Russia was attempting to undermine confidence in the election by spreading false videos and phony accusations of voter fraud.

Right-wing activists and lawmakers have challenged the eligibility of thousands of voters in Pennsylvania.

Here’s a guide to when polls close across the country, and what to follow, region by region.
The New York Times Needle will show the latest vote totals and estimates of the outcome.

More on Election Day

Businesses near the White House boarded up their windows.

Both campaigns say they’re cautiously optimistic about winning Pennsylvania. Republicans stress the optimism, Democrats the caution.

A Pennsylvania judge ruled that Elon Musk’s election sweepstakes, which gave some voters a chance to win $1 million, did not violate state law.

A Guide to Election Night

In Philadelphia. Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images

Today’s newsletter offers a guide to election night, and we’ll start with a point that many people don’t seem to realize: The process of counting votes may happen more quickly this year than it did four years ago.

Why? The Covid pandemic is over, and fewer people are voting by mail. And some states have changed their procedures to count votes more quickly. Michigan, for example, now allows officials to start processing mailed ballots before Election Day, while Philadelphia has bought faster counting machines.

If the presidential race is extremely close — think Bush vs. Gore — we won’t know the winner by tomorrow night. But the chance that the result will be clear is higher than you may think.
The presidency

The final New York Times/Siena College polls, released yesterday, showed a virtually tied race. Kamala Harris is clearly favored in states that account for 226 electoral votes, while Donald Trump is favored in states that account for 219. To win, Harris will likely need at least 44 combined electoral votes from the seven battleground states, while he will likely need 51:

By The New York Times


But surprises remain possible. A highly regarded Iowa poll, for example, shocked many political analysts over the weekend by showing Harris ahead there — a potential sign of her strength with white voters. Alaska is another state where she has a small chance for a big upset. Trump could pull off his own surprises in New Mexico or New Hampshire.

You can explore all of the combinations through this map.
Congress

Republicans are significant favorites to retake Senate control, as Friday’s newsletter described. The likeliest path to a Democratic-led Senate requires at least one upset victory in Montana, Nebraska or Texas.

Control of the House is a tossup. It could come down to districts in states that often need days to finish counting ballots, including Arizona, California and New York. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, doesn’t think we will know tomorrow night which party has won.

Among the House races we’re watching closely:

For an early sense, look to the Second and Seventh Districts in Virginia (where polls close at 7 p.m.). One is a race to succeed Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat resigning to run for governor. Our colleague Catie Edmondson describes that race as “a good test of how House Republicans are going to do in suburbs that aren’t in love with Trump.”

Seventeen Republicans represent districts Joe Biden won in 2020, including Mike Lawler in New York City’s suburbs. If you’re looking for something to listen to today, we recommend this “Daily” episode about Lawler’s race.

Five Democrats are running for re-election in districts Trump won in 2020, including Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington State. Here’s a Times profile of Gluesenkamp Perez, who has appealed to working-class voters by combining economic progressivism with moderate stances on college debt, immigration and guns.


In Phoenix. Matt York/Associated Press

Ballot initiatives

Here are six questions about voter referendums:

Will abortion rights remain undefeated in the post-Roe era? Ten states will vote on the issue. Six red and purple states — Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Nebraska — are considering measures that would allow abortion until fetal viability. Florida’s version needs 60 percent support to pass.

Will marijuana’s winning streak continue despite new evidence of harms? Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota will vote on whether to legalize recreational marijuana, and Nebraska will vote on medical marijuana. (A recent Times investigation explained growing signs of addiction and health problems.)

Will affordable housing expand? Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, New Orleans and Rhode Island will vote on funding.

Will momentum for school vouchers continue? The educational turmoil of the Covid pandemic, including long school closures, has already led several red states to allow families to use tax dollars for private schools. Kentucky and Nebraska will vote on related measures.

Will progressive economic policies continue to fare well? Alaska (where the minimum wage is now $11.73) and Missouri ($12.30) will vote on increases — and also whether to expand paid sick leave. California ($16) will also vote on lifting the minimum wage.

Will ranked-choice voting grow — or shrink? Ranked-choice voting allows people to list several candidates in a preferred order, rather than choosing only one. As a result, advocates note, it can help candidates who appeal to the broad American middle, rather than partisan extremes. Critics point out that it can also be complicated. Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, D.C., will vote on whether to establish such a system in at least some elections. Alaska will vote on whether to get rid of its ranked-choice system.

We recommend this nationwide election guide from Daniel Nichanian of Bolts magazine. It includes information on referendums about climate, transportation, L.G.B.T.Q. issues and more.
For more

Doug Mills, a Times photographer, will be with Trump on election night. He has covered every president since Ronald Reagan. See some of his iconic images.

Readers asked questions about the election. Times editors answered.







Voting

Nearly 75 million people have cast early ballots (that’s around a third of all eligible voters).
Overall turnout is expected to be slightly lower than in 2020, but will still be higher than most previous elections.

A group of uncommitted voters struggled for months with their decision. See them explain who they’re voting for.

The final polls are the closest in modern history. But a decisive win for either candidate is still possible, Nate Cohn writes.

More on the Campaigns

In Greensboro, North Carolina. Doug Mills/The New York Times

At a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump said he shouldn’t have left the White House after the 2020 election. He also joked to supporters that he wouldn’t mind if reporters were shot.

At a Michigan rally, Harris vowed to end the war in Gaza, a crucial issue in the state. She also visited a Black church in Detroit, where she invoked the words of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

In ads, Harris’s final message is focused on kitchen-table issues like the economy, while the Trump campaign has framed defeating Harris as a matter of life and death.

Both candidates will spend most of their final day in Pennsylvania. Follow the latest news here.