THE GUARDIAN
A New York Times/Siena College poll this week confirmed Quinn's position as frontrunner to become the Democratic candidate in November's mayoral election. That in turn makes favourite to replace the current incumbent, Michael Bloomberg, as resident of Gracie Mansion.
A Quinn victory would make her New York's first woman, and lesbian, mayor. On a more political note her mayoralty would mark the return of the Democratic party as the natural leaders of this predominantly liberal city, following almost 20 years of Republican/Independent stewardship under Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg.
In some regards, the tea leaves look good for "Mayor Quinn". Her main rival, Anthony Weiner, has all but combusted into a puff of smoke following the revelation that his digital indiscretions with women were more than a one-off blip. Though Weiner is bucking sense and sticking in the race, his poll numbers are now down to a moribund 10% of Democratic voters in the Siena College poll....
But despite the frontrunner status, Quinn's position remains precarious. With the clock ticking on the Democratic primary election on 10 September, her 25% backing among registered Democratic voters lags far behind the 40% she needs to become her party's outright choice, first time around....
A closer look at the poll figures shows that Weiner's self-implosion has been to the advantage not of Quinn, who has actually fallen three points since Siena's previous poll in July, but of the "two Bills" – Bill Thompson and Bill de Blasio – who are vying for second place if the race goes to a runoff. Thompson has sucked up much of Weiner's declining support, rising five points to 19% in the Siena College poll, while De Blasio has gained three points to 14%.
Quinn's inability to establish a convincing lead over her opponents is partly explained by her reputation, garnered over seven years as speaker of New York City council, for being a career politician who can be abrasive and scheming in her pursuit of power. It is also partly explained by the elephant in the room of this year's mayoral race: Bloomberg.
After more than 11 years in the job, the billionaire has recast the mayoralty very much in his own mould. With his vast fortune, Wall Street confidence, celebrity status and a track record of visionary reforms that have put New York back at the forefront of global cities – the smoking ban, transformation of the waterfront, revitalisation of the city's skyline, bike lanes, a plummeting murder rate, the list goes on – Bloomberg is a formidable act to follow...
Bloomberg's spectral figure looming over the mayoral race is a problem for Quinn, who is caricatured by her opponents as a Mini-Me. Her help relaxing term limits to allow Bloomberg to serve a third term as mayor in 2008 is used as a stick to beat her.
The 2013 race has become to some degree a post-mortem on Bloomberg's era and a referendum on the kind of sparkling, modern but highly unequal city that has emerged under him. Quinn is polling well among households earning more than $100,000 in Manhattan, the Siena College poll shows, but over in the outer boroughs the electorate is unsettled and seething.
As the Nation magazine pointed out about what it dubbed the "gilded city", the richest 1% of New Yorkers now earns 39% of the total city income, up from 27% when Bloomberg became mayor. The population of homeless people during his epoch increased by 61% and, in the most contentious aspect of his reign, largely black and Hispanic people were stopped and frisked on the street some five million times.
Thompson, lost to Bloomberg in the mayoral race four years ago. [N.Y. Times:] His team is telling would-be supporters he will create a modernized Dinkins-like mosaic, carrying still-ardent African-Americans and attracting the ascendant Latino voting bloc, even as he builds a bridge to the city’s corporate crowd. (One example: his measured approach to the polarizing police tactic called stop and frisk. He is proposing to hire 2000 additional police officers. ) By zeroing in on their needs, he has quietly established allies within the Orthodox Jewish community, a prized slice of the electoral pie. He is trying to convince skeptical donors that he has fire in the belly despite a sometimes retiring style. But rather than turning up the energy, lately he has been turning up the volume, shouting zingers and pounding tables. [Guardian, (Cont'd):] As a result he has eaten into Quinn's numbers by drawing 24% support among black voters, above her 18%.
In reply, as Friday's event showed, Quinn has courted the city's large and growing Hispanic community who may make up as many as one in five of the electorate in November. But as they scrap for every last vote, the three remaining serious Democratic candidates in the race know that their coffers are limited.