February 7, 2017




By Amber Phillips
President Trump's travel ban could be in legal limbo for months. But if we know where to look in the maze of legalese, we could have a sense of whether the courts will let it be implemented as soon as Tuesday. Here's why:
The ban has been on pause since Friday. There are 50+ challenges to the ban, from Boston to Hawaii, but the most sweeping and significant is on the West Coast. A federal Seattle judge — a George W. Bush appointee — put it on hold nationwide almost a week after Trump implemented it, agreeing with Washington and Minnesota attorneys general that the ban could be unduly harming Americans. Some people who were stopped at airports last weekend started traveling again to the United States.
On Tuesday,  the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco — will decide whether the Seattle judge's temporary restraining order should stay in place.
This is a critical juncture for the ban: It's quite possible that what this court decides ends up being its fate. I'll add that this court is widely seen as one of the most liberal in the nation.
The losing side will likely appeal to the Supreme Court. Which means in the next few months, the highest court in the land could tell us whether Trump's temporary travel ban for seven predominantly Muslim countries can resume.
Or not. The Supreme Court could also give us an objectively unsatisfying 4-4 split along ideological lines, which it's done before on big cases. If that happens, the 9th Circuit's decision will be the official law of the land.
The Supreme Court has been without its ninth member since Justice Antonin Scalia died almost exactly a year ago. It's almost certain that Trump's pick, conservative federal judge Neil Gorsuch, will not be on the bench in time to hear this case. (Remember, this is a temporary travel ban, which expires in 120 days — late May — for most travelers.)
So, yes, this legal challenge could take months to complete. But it's possible that a decision Tuesday will signal its fate.