New jobs numbers show an economy in dire straits

 

Tom Williams/Getty Images VOX

A dire new jobs report on Friday found that the US added just 245,000 jobs in November — less than half of October’s 610,000 jobs and the worst month since April, when the economy shed millions of jobs. [WSJ / Sarah Chaney Cambon] That number is bad news in its own right, but economists warn that there could be worse to come with the pandemic surging across the US. Next month, the US could again lose jobs for the first time since April. [Washington Post / Eli Rosenberg] And though the Labor Department report shows unemployment declining — it fell from 6.9 percent to 6.7 percent — there’s an unhappy explanation for that too. Adults are simply leaving the labor force, which means they are neither employed nor actively seeking employment. [NYT / Neil Irwin] All told, the US economy has recovered only a bit more than half of the jobs lost in March and April. According to NPR, employment levels are still 9.8 million jobs shy of pre-Covid levels. [NPR / Scott Horsley] Some experts have pointed to Friday’s numbers as evidence that the country needs another round of stimulus from Congress, particularly with more jobless benefits set to expire this month. [CNBC / Patti Domm] A federal eviction moratorium and student loan freeze will also run out at the end of December, deepening an already severe crisis for many Americans. Other measures, such as a $600 per week expanded unemployment benefit, expired unrenewed months ago. [Vox / Anna North] In a statement Friday, President-elect Joe Biden reiterated his call for Congress to act, writing that “this is a grim jobs report” that requires “urgent action. Americans need help and they need it now.” [Transition 46] And help may be coming: A new $908 billion Covid-19 relief package with bipartisan support gained traction on the Hill this week. Any bill that emerges from negotiations could be appended to an upcoming omnibus spending measure. [Politico / Caitlin Emma and Heather Caygle]

Obama’s Puzzle: Economy Rarely Better, Approval Rarely Worse

Photograph by Pari Dukovic for The New Yorker


N.Y. TIMES

WASHINGTON — President Obama will pronounce on the state of the union for the fifth time on Tuesday, and never during his time in office has the state of the economy been better — yet rarely has he gotten such low marks from the public for his handling of it.

Not only have economic indicators shown progress toward pre-recession health, but many forecasters are predicting what one called “a breakout year” for growth. A new study from a Federal Reserve economist even put a more benign spin on a negative trend, the shrinking labor force, by attributing the decline not to discouraged unemployed workers who have quit looking for jobs, but to the first baby-boomer retirements.

 

Demand for labor is up and the unemployment rate is below 7 percent for the first time since November 2008. Consumers, buoyed by rising home prices and stock values, are spending more; so are businesses. Exports are growing as Europe regains health. The fiscal drag from state and federal spending cuts has abated. And contrary to Republicans’ claims, many forecasters do not see the health care law as “a job-killer.”

 

Economically speaking, said Scott A. Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, “the state of the union is the best we have seen in years.”

 

Yet taking credit is complicated, given the clear evidence in national polls that most Americans are not in a mood to give him any.

Mr. Obama’s ratings for his handling of the economy, never high since his first months in office, slipped throughout 2013 in national polls. As he began this year, nearly six in 10 Americans disapproved, nearly matching his lowest marks in 2011, a year of repeated and damaging fiscal fights with the new Republican House majority. Advisers said the decline was a reflection of Mr. Obama’s diminished standing more broadly after months of public attention to issues that have dominated news coverage: the administration’s bungled introduction of the website for the insurance marketplaces created by his signature Affordable Care Act, and the controversy over intelligence gathering by the National Security Agency.

“For the average person sitting at home watching news on TV and the Internet, they have seen their president spend the last six months or so dealing with N.S.A., a government shutdown and a malfunctioning website,” said Mr. Obama’s chief strategist, Dan Pfeiffer.

 

Another problem, Democrats say, is that despite the overall economic comeback, many Americans have not seen much improvement for themselves or their family members.