March 27, 2025

Trump’s adm planned mil strikes on Yemen over an unsecure app, which incl reporter of The Atlantic

Monday’s astounding story that the most senior members of President Donald Trump’s administration planned military strikes on Yemen over an unsecure commercial messaging app, on which they had included national security reporter and editor in chief of The Atlantic Jeffrey Goldberg, has escalated over the past two days.

On Monday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth looked directly at a reporter’s camera and said: “Nobody was texting war plans.” Throughout the day Tuesday, the administration doubled down on this assertion, apparently convinced that Goldberg would not release the information they knew he had. They tried to spin the story by attacking Goldberg, suggesting he had somehow hacked into the conversation, although the app itself tracked that National Security Advisor Michael Waltz had added him.

Various administration figures, including Trump, insisted that the chat contained nothing classified. At a scheduled hearing yesterday before the Senate Intelligence Committee on worldwide threats, during which senators took the opportunity to dig into the Signal scandal, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said: “There was no classified material that was shared in that Signal group.” Director of the Central Intelligence Agency John Ratcliffe agreed: “My communications, to be clear, in the Signal message group were entirely permissible and lawful and did not include classified information.” In the afternoon, Trump told reporters: “The attack was totally successful. It was, I guess, from what I understand, took place during. And it wasn’t classified information. So this was not classified.”

After Gabbard said she would defer to the secretary of defense and the National Security Council about what information should have been classified, Senator Angus King (I-ME) seemed taken aback. “You’re the head of the intelligence community. You’re supposed to know about classifications,” he pointed out. He continued, “So your testimony very clearly today is that nothing was in that set of texts that were classified.... If that’s the case, please release that whole text stream so that the public can have a view of what actually transpired on this discussion. It’s hard for me to believe that targets and timing and weapons would not have been classified.”

Meanwhile, reporters were also digging into the story. James LaPorta of CBS News reported that an internal bulletin from the National Security Agency warned staff in February 2025 not to use Signal for sensitive information, citing concerns that the app was vulnerable to Russian hackers. A former White House official told Maggie Miller and Dana Nickel of Politico, “Their personal phones are all hackable, and it’s highly likely that foreign intelligence services are sitting on their phones watching them type the sh*t out."

Tuesday night, American Oversight, a nonprofit organization focusing on government transparency, filed a lawsuit against Hegseth, Gabbard, Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of State Marco Rubio—all of whom were also on the Signal chain—and the National Archives for violating the Federal Records Act, and suggested the administration has made other attempts to get around the law. It notes that the law requires the preservation of federal records.

Today it all got worse.

It turned out that administration officials’ conviction that Goldberg wouldn’t publicly release receipts was wrong. This morning, Goldberg and Shane Harris, who had worked together on the initial story, wrote: “The statements by Hegseth, Gabbard, Ratcliffe, and Trump—combined with the assertions made by numerous administration officials that we are lying about the content of the Signal texts—have led us to believe that people should see the texts in order to reach their own conclusions. There is a clear public interest in disclosing the sort of information that Trump advisers included in nonsecure communications channels, especially because senior administration figures are attempting to downplay the significance of the messages that were shared.”

The Atlantic published screenshots of the message chat.

The screenshots make clear that administration officials insisting that there was nothing classified on the chat were lying. Hegseth uploaded the precise details of the attack before it happened, leaving American military personnel vulnerable. The evidence is damning.

The fury of Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), an Army pilot who was nearly killed in Iraq, was palpable. “Pete Hegseth is a f*cking liar,” she wrote. “This is so clearly classified info he recklessly leaked that could’ve gotten our pilots killed. He needs to resign in disgrace immediately.” Legal analyst Barb McQuade pointed out that it didn't even matter if the information was classified: it is “a crime to remove national defense information from its proper place through gross negligence…. Signal chat is not a proper place.”

The screenshots also raise a number of other issues. They made it clear that administration officials have been using Signal for other conversations: Waltz at one point typed: “As we stated in the first PC….” Using a nongovernment system is likely an attempt to get around the laws that require the preservation of public records. The screenshots also show that Signal was set to erase the messages on the chat after 4 weeks.

The messages reveal that President Trump was not part of the discussion of whether to make the airstrikes, a deeply troubling revelation that raises the question of who is in charge at the White House. As the conversation about whether to attack took place, Vice President J.D. Vance wrote about Trump’s reasoning that attacking the Houthis in Yemen would “send a message”: “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now.” Later, he texted to Hegseth: “if you think we should do it let’s go. I just hate bailing Europe out again. Let’s just make sure our messaging is tight here. And if there are things we can do upfront to minimize risk to Saudi oil facilities we should do it.”

Hegseth responded: “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC. But Mike is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close. Question is timing. I feel like now is as good a time as any, given POTUS directive to reopen shipping lanes. I think we should go; but POTUS still retains 24 hours of decision space.”

The decision to make the strikes then appears to have been made by deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, who ended the discussion simply by invoking the president: “As I heard it,” he wrote, “the president was clear: green light, but we soon make it clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. We also need to figure out how to enforce such a requirement.” If Europe doesn’t cover the cost of the attack, “then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.”

“Agree,” Hegseth messaged, and the attack was on.

Also missing from the group message was the person who is currently acting as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Christopher Grady. In February, Trump fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr., who took on the position in 2023 having served more than 3,000 hours as a fighter pilot, including 130 hours in combat, and commanded the Pacific Air Forces, which provides air power for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region; the U.S. Air Forces Central Command, responsible for protecting U.S. security interests in Africa through the Persian Gulf; the 31st Fighter Wing, covering the southern region of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); the 8th Fighter Wing, covering southeast Asia; U.S. Air Force Weapons School for advanced training in weapons and tactics for officers; and 78th Fighter Squadron.

Hegseth publicly suggested that Brown had been appointed because he is Black. “Was it because of his skin color? Or his skill? We’ll never know, but always doubt,” Hegseth wrote. With Trump’s controversial replacement for Brown still unconfirmed, Admiral Grady, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, is fulfilling the role of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But he was not in the chat. The Pentagon's highest-ranking officer would normally be included in planning a military operation.

Also in the chat, participants made embarrassing attacks on our allies and celebrated civilian deaths in Yemen in the quest to kill a targeted combatant.

Attempts to defend themselves from the scandal only dug administration officials in deeper. On Monday night, independent journalist Olga Lautman, who studies Russia, noted that Trump’s Russia and Ukraine specialist Steve Witkoff had actually been in Russia when Waltz added him to the chat, underscoring the chat’s vulnerability to hackers. By Tuesday, multiple outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, picked up Lautman’s story.

Witkoff fought back against the Wall Street Journal story with a long social media post about how he had traveled to Moscow with a secure government phone and now it was not until he got home that he had “access to my personal devices” to participate in the Signal conversation, thus apparently confirming that he was discussing classified information with the nation’s top officials on an unsecure personal device.

Tonight, news of other ways in which the administration is compromised surfaced. The German newspaper Der Spiegel revealed that the contact information for a number of the same officials who were on the Signal chat is available online, as well as email addresses and some passwords for their private accounts, making it easy for hackers to get into their personal devices. Those compromised included National Security Advisor Waltz, Director of National Intelligence Gabbard, and Secretary of Defense Hegseth. Wired reported that Waltz, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, and Walker Barrett of the National Security Council, who was also on the Signal messaging chain, had left their Venmo accounts public, demonstrating what national security experts described as reckless behavior.

In the New York Times tonight, foreign affairs journalist Noah Shachtman looked not just at the Signal scandal but also at the administration’s lowering of U.S. guard against foreign influence operations, installation of billionaire Elon Musk’s satellite internet terminals at the White House, and diversion of personnel from national security to Trump’s pet projects, and advised hostile nations to “savor this moment. It’s never been easier to steal secrets from the United States government. Can you even call it stealing when it’s this simple? The Trump administration has unlocked the vault doors, fired half of the security guards and asked the rest to roll pennies. Walk right in. Take what you want. This is the golden age.”

Trump today did not seem on top of the story when he told reporters: “I think it’s a witch hunt. I wasn’t involved with it, I wasn’t there, but I can tell you the result is unbelievable.” When asked if he still believed there was no classified information shared, he answered: “Well, that’s what I’ve heard. I don’t know, I’m not sure. You’ll have to ask the various people involved. I really don’t know.” He said the breach was Waltz’s fault—“it had nothing to do with anyone else”—and when reporters asked about the future of Defense Secretary Hegseth, who uploaded the attack plans into the unsecure system, he answered: “Hegseth is doing a great job, he had nothing to do with this…. How do you bring Hegseth into it? He had nothing to do with it. Look, look, it’s all a witch hunt. I don’t know that Signal works. I think Signal could be defective, to be honest with you….”

The administration appears to be trying to create a distraction from the damning story. Yesterday evening, Trump signed an executive order that would, if it could be enforced, dramatically change U.S. elections and take the vote away from tens of millions of Americans. But, as Marc Elias of Democracy Docket put it, the order is “confused, rhetorical and—in places—nonsensical. It asserts facts that are not true and claims authority he does not possess. It is not meant to be taken seriously or literally. Rather, it is the empty threat of a weak man desperate to appear strong.”

After today’s revelations, Trump announced new 25% tariffs on imported cars and car parts including those from Canada and Mexico, despite a deal worked out earlier this month that items covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement Trump signed in his first term would not face a new tariff levy. The 25% tariff is a major change that will raise prices across the board and hit the automotive sector in which more than a million Americans work. Upon the news, the stock market fell again.

And yet, despite the attempts to bury the Signal story, the scandal seems, if anything, to be growing. House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) wrote a public letter to Trump yesterday calling for him to fire Hegseth, accurately referring to him as “the most unqualified Secretary of Defense in American history.” Jeffries wrote: “His behavior shocks the conscience, risked American lives and likely violated the law.” “[H]ey Sen[ator Joni] Ernst and Sen[ator Thom] Tillis,” Jen Rubin of The Contrarian wrote tonight, “proud of your votes for Hegseth? This is on [you] too as much as Hegseth. You knew he was not remotely qualified.”

Crime Down and Tolls Working, MTA Fires Back After ‘Shithole’ Jab From Trump DOT Chief


One transit authority board member called Sean Duffy’s comments “a real slap in the face” as the MTA tries to get back on track.
by Jose Martinez March 24, 2025, 4:00 



After President Trump’s transportation secretary trashed the subway as a “shithole,” baffled MTA and NYPD officials pointed to a nearly 30% drop in major transit crime from a year ago.

Chief Joseph Gulotta, head of the NYPD Transit Bureau Chief conceded Monday that the subway is struggling with a safety perception problem — even as the number of robberies, assaults, burglaries and grand larcenies has sunk amid the latest influx of police officers into stations and trains.

“Over the past two months, we’ve seen a 28.2% reduction in crime, which amounts to 110 fewer victims compared to the same period last year,” Gulotta told members of the MTA board during a transit committee meeting. “I mean, those numbers speak for themselves.”
An NYPD officer keeps watch near a subway entrance at the Fulton Transit Center, Dec. 12, 2024. Credit: Ben Fractenberg/THE CITY

Gulotta’s monthly presentation on crime within the subway system came after federal transportation chief Sean Duffy said Saturday that Gov. Kathy Hochul could “clean up the subways” within a day and a half — but that “she chooses not to.”

One MTA board member called Duffy’s latest jab at the subway “pretty disappointing,” while another said, “What is our transportation secretary talking about?”

“If our numbers are saying one thing, they’re saying something else,” said Haeda Mihaltses, chairperson of the board’s New York City Transit Committee. “I mean, where are they getting their numbers from?”“I think people love to pick on New York, people really hate what New York is,” added Samuel Chu, another MTA board member. “Now more than ever, we’re a place where people find a way to live together despite our differences, our eccentricities.”

Board member Andrew Albert said the USDOT secretary’s words were “a real slap in the face” to police officers whose presence within the subway surged again in January, when Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams assigned officers to ride on each train during the overnight hours. The $154 million deployment is being split between the city and the state.

“The whole thing is just aimed to make a point, obviously,” Albert said of Duffy’s digs. “I think riders are feeling a lot better seeing the officers and I’ve watched them move from car to car.”

Duffy’s comments on transit crime followed his threat last week to pull federal funding from the MTA unless it provides the feds with plans for boosting subway safety and provides crime statistics that are already largely publicly available.

“If you want people to take the train, take transit, then make it safe, make it clean, make it beautiful, make it wonderful,” Duffy said Saturday while touring New Jersey sinkholes near Interstate 80. “Don’t make it a shithole, which is what [Hochul] has done.”Federal Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy speaks about sinkholes on I-80 in New Jersey, March 22, 2025. Credit: Screengrab via Secretary Sean Du

The country’s largest public transportation authority is already locked in a multi-front battle with the feds over congestion pricing.

The MTA last month sued Duffy and the Transportation Department after the administration of President Donald Trump moved to revoke federal authority for the vehicle-tolling plan approved by state lawmakers in 2019 and later approved under the Biden administration.

The nation’s first congestion-pricing plan launched in early January and is designed to generate more than $15 billion dollars for the MTA’s 2020 to 2024 capital plan. The five-year plan is a more than $50 billion blueprint to fund signal upgrades, station overhauls, the extension of the Second Avenue Subway through East Harlem and other essential infrastructure improvements.

But Trump has pushed to follow through on an August campaign pledge to terminate the vehicle-tolling initiative that Hochul herself paused last summer for several months. Following his shutdown order last month, the president crowed “CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD,” in social media posts in which he also proclaimed, “LONG LIVE THE KING!”

The federal DOT, meanwhile, has extended its March 21 congestion-pricing shutdown deadline by 30 days, even as Hochul and the MTA have vowed to keep the south-of-60th Street tolling system in place.

Officials on Monday said that the tolls are on target to generate half a billion dollars in revenue for the MTA by the end of 2024 after taking in more than $40.4 million in net revenue last month.

They also cited gains that include bus speeds being up 4% on routes within the congestion relief zone south of 60th Street, as well decreased travel times for paratransit trips within Manhattan.

Palestinian studies, and antisemitic theories

Gov. Kathy Hochul ordered City University of New York school Hunter College to remove a faculty job listing recruiting professors to teach Palestinian studies, and to “conduct a thorough review of the position to ensure that antisemitic theories are not promoted in the classroom.” CUNY has now re-posed the listings — but no longer including language calling for scholars concerned with “settler colonialism, genocide and apartheid.”

Hands off our healthcare’: Brooklynites protest Rep. Malliotakis’ support for Republican budget proposal

 By Lauren Rapp

person marching with sign of malliotakis healthcare cuts
Demonstrators march in support of health care programs during a rally outside U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ Bay Ridge office on March 22.
Photo by Paul Frangipane

New Yorkers criticized U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis last week after she voted in favor of a House budget proposal they said could lead to cuts for healthcare programs — staging two separate protests, including a “die-in” — outside her office. 

Last month, Malliotakis — and all Republican members of the House of Representatives voted in favor of a budget framework that called for $2 trillion in spending cuts and the extension of tax cuts implemented in Trump’s first term. 

Opponents of the plan argued it could slash funding for Medicaid, Medicare, the Affordable Care Act, and New York State’s Child Health Plus and Essential Plan programs.

malliotakis protest
Protestors rallied outside Malliotakis’ Bay Ridge office twice last week, urging her to protect healthcare funding.Photo by Paul Frangipane

On Friday afternoon, residents and community groups chanted “hands off our healthcare” and “healthcare over billionaire welfare” while holding a lifesize cut out of Malliotakis outside her Bay Ridge office. They were there to hand-deliver a petition urging the representative to hold a town meeting for her constituents, oppose cuts to SNAP and Medicaid, and push for state and local governments to supplement lost federal funding. As of March 21, that petition had amassed 350 signatures. 

The protest was supported by organizing groups Popular Democracy, MoveOn Civic Action, and Indivisible Brooklyn

“Congresswoman Malliotakis has failed to answer constituent questions about her decision to vote in support of a budget resolution that will slash hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for Medicaid and food assistance,” said Bay Ridge resident Irene Xanthoudakis at the protest. 

Another attendee, Christina Carter, works as a clinical psychologist. Part of her motivation to attend the rally stemmed from working with patients heavily reliant on Medicaid, she said. 

nicole malliotakis
Protestors said Malliotakis has failed to respond to inquiries and requests to hold a town hall.File photo by Paul Frangipane

“The system, as it is, has tons of gaps, these budget cuts not only turn those gaps into chasms that the most vulnerable in society can and will fall through,” shared Carter in an email. “They also have a downstream effect that will threaten our already fragile healthcare system as whole.”

Both neighbors shared concerns that Malliotakis has failed to respond to repeated requests to hold a town hall meeting to discuss budget cuts.

Malliotakis’ office did not respond to multiple requests for comment. 

“Representative Malliotakis can either choose to vote with Elon Musk and his billionaire friends, or she can vote to protect hundreds of thousands of constituents who depend on Medicaid and SNAP benefits,” said Jon Green, a Bay Ridge resident and organizer with Popular Democracy.

Following the passage of the budget proposal, the United States House Committee on Ways & Means, led by Chairman Jason Smith, described the proposal in a statement as a “big, beautiful reconciliation bill” that supports the expansion of “Trump Tax Cuts” and increases national security. 

“It also opens the door for new resources to secure America’s borders and strengthen national security as well as end the bureaucratic blockade standing in the way of American energy dominance,” stated the Ways & Means office. 

Congressional Democrats disagreed. 

“The reckless Republican budget will cut taxes up to $4.5 trillion for the wealthy, the well-off and the well-connected, and then they are sticking working-class Americans, middle-class Americans and everyday Americans with the bill,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said after the vote last month. “They’re going to slash and burn Medicaid, slash and burn veterans benefits and slash and burn nutritional assistance for children and families.”

medicaid protest marchers in bay ridge
Protestors marched through Bay Ridge on Sunday.Photo by Paul Frangipane

On March 22, the day after the petition was delivered, residents and community groups gathered outside Malliotakis’ office for a “die-in.”

Protesters marched with handmade tombstone signs that held messages like “DOGE cut my Medicaid” and “Medicaid cuts killed me” written beside skulls and crossbones. Some laid on the ground in front of Malliotakis’ office, holding their tombstone signs above their heads to create a mock graveyard. 

Lee Crawford, a representative from Indivisible Brooklyn, told Brooklyn Paper that the rally turnout was larger than expected, and earned support from Make the Road New York, Metro New York Health Care for All, and 1199 SEIU United Healthcare Workers East

die in protest
At the “die-in,” protestors held their tombstone signs above their heads.Photo by Paul Frangipane

Crawford estimates around 200 residents attended the march, and more than 50 people participated in the “die-in.” 

Indivisible Brooklyn has been talking to NY-11 constituents for the past five weeks, Crawford said, and they have become “increasingly alarmed”  following Malliotakis’ vote last month. 

“They [NY11 constituents] had started to ask us on their own about when there would be a protest at her office, so they were energized to join this march,” stated Crawford. 

Mark Hannay, the Director of Metro NY Health Care for All, said over 300,000 of Malliotakis’ constituents are enrolled in Medicaid and Child Health Plus, including nearly 21,000 people living with disabilities — according to Medicaid Matters New York

protestors outside malliotakis office with tombstone-shaped signs
Some locals said they worry the cuts will have serious repercussions for healthcare in the U.S.Photo by Paul Frangipane

“It will not only harm individuals and families, but will affect the hospitals, community health centers, nursing homes, and home care programs that everybody relies on, no matter what kind of health insurance someone may have,” stated Hannay. 

The House resolution is just one step in a much longer budget reconciliation process. Last month, the Senate approved a competing framework — and in the coming months, the bodies will have to agree on a common budget resolution. If passed, the bill will be sent to President Donald Trump for approval.

March 26, 2025

8 theories why fentanyl deaths are plummeting

The state of Virginia has seen drug overdose deaths plunge by more than 40% in a single year. Many other states are seeing improvements above 30%. Why is this happening? Researchers say it may be a combination of factors, some hopeful and some painful.

The state of Virginia has seen drug overdose deaths plunge by more than 40% in a single year. Many other states are seeing improvements above 30%. Why is this happening? Researchers say it may be a combination of factors, some hopeful and some painful.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Over the past six months, I've been tracking something really cool and mysterious happening on American streets. For the first time in 30 years, drug deaths are plunging at a rate that addiction experts say is hopeful — but also baffling.

In the past, even the most ambitious, well-funded efforts to slow drug deaths only helped a little bit. Reducing fatal overdoses by 8% or 9% was seen as a huge win.

But now, deaths nationwide plunged more than 26% from the peak in June 2023, according to the latest preliminary data gathered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That means roughly 30,000 fewer people a year are dying. Many states are seeing even bigger improvements of 30% to 50%. In some states, progress has been sustained since 2021 and 2022, which suggests this isn't a temporary blip.

So how did the U.S. finally turn the corner on drug deaths?

What's going on? No one knows for sure, but here are eight leading theories I hear from experts.

1. Naloxone, also known as Narcan, may be the game-changer. The Biden administration raced to make this medication, a nasal spray that quickly reverses opioid and fentanyl overdoses, far more widely available. People can buy it now over the counter without a prescription. It's distributed for free in many high-risk communities, and people using drugs often carry it. It's unclear how many lives naloxone is saving each year, but many front-line public health workers tell me the impact is huge. Learn more here.

Naloxone, also known as Narcan, is much easier and more affordable than ever. People who use fentanyl now regularly revive one-another after experiencing overdoses. Some public health experts and activists think this medication may be a big factor shifting the tide of America's overdose crisis.

Naloxone, also known as Narcan, is much easier and more affordable than ever. People who use fentanyl now regularly revive one another after experiencing overdoses. Some public health experts and activists think this medication may be a big factor shifting the tide of America's overdose crisis.

Brian Mann/NPR

2. Weaker fentanyl. Street fentanyl is incredibly potent. But in many parts of the U.S., organizations that test fentanyl doses sold by drug dealers — often in pill form — have found a significant drop in purity. No one's sure why drug cartels have changed their mixtures. Some researchers believe law enforcement pressure in China, Mexico and the U.S. is disrupting the black market fentanyl supply chain. Learn more here.

3. A dangerous but less lethal street drug supply. In most of the the U.S., gangs are selling complicated "cocktails" of street drugs. The amount of fentanyl appears to be dropping (see above), while the amount of animal tranquilizers, such as medetomidine and xylazine, is rising. These chemicals are highly toxic. They cause skin wounds, severe withdrawal symptoms and other long-term health problems. But doctors and addiction experts generally agree they aren't as immediately lethal as fentanyl. That could mean more chronic illness but fewer fatal overdoses. Learn more here.

When America's opioid crisis began in the 1990s, drug addiction treatment was rare and often came shrouded in stigma. The U.S. addiction treatment system and safety net has seen huge improvements over the last decade. Better medications are available and in many communities more resources are available to help people using highly dangerous drugs like fentanyl.

When America's opioid crisis began in the 1990s, drug addiction treatment was rare and often came shrouded in stigma. The U.S. addiction treatment system and safety net have seen huge improvements over the past decade. Better medications are available, and in many communities, more resources are available to help people using highly dangerous drugs such as fentanyl.

Brian Mann/NPR

4. Better public health. Thirty years after the U.S. opioid crisis began — and a decade after fentanyl spread nationwide — the U.S. has made strides developing better and more affordable services for people experiencing addiction. Medications that reduce opioid cravings, including buprenorphine and methadone, are more widely available, in part because of insurance coverage provided by Medicaid. In many states, roughly $50 billion in opioid settlement money paid out by corporations is also starting to help. Going forward, it's unclear how the Trump administration's deep cuts to public health agencies and grants will affect this new addiction safety net. Learn more here.

5. Many of the most vulnerable people have already died. This theory is discounted by some researchers I talk to, but many addiction experts think it's a factor. Over the past five years, the U.S. has been losing roughly 110,000 people to fatal drug overdoses every year. It's possible drug deaths are declining in part because a heartbreaking number of people using fentanyl and other high-risk street drugs simply didn't survive. Learn more here.

6. Waning effect of the COVID pandemic. The isolation, trauma and disruption of addiction treatment programs that followed the onset of COVID in 2020 overlap with the most devastating years of drug overdose deaths. Many public health experts believe the pandemic deepened the catastrophic impacts of fentanyl. According to this theory, as the impacts of COVID continue to fade, deadly overdoses are also declining to a more "normal" level. Learn more here.

7. People are using fentanyl (and other high risk street drugs) more skillfully. This is a common theory among people who use street drugs. They often tell me they've adapted to the risks of fentanyl by smoking rather than injecting the drug, which many addiction experts believe is safer (though still incredibly dangerous). People try to never use fentanyl alone and often carry naloxone or Narcan to reverse overdoses. Many people use test strips to identify unwanted contaminants in their drugs and use smaller fentanyl doses. Learn more here.

8. A decline in young people using drugs. Street fentanyl has emerged as a leading cause of death among young people in the U.S., age 18 to 45. But research suggests far fewer young people and teenagers are using drugs (other than cannabis). This trend matters because new users have low physical tolerance for opioids such as fentanyl, which means they're more likely to overdose and potentially die. Fewer young users means fewer people taking that risk. Learn more here.

It's important to emphasize all of these theories are just that — theories. Most researchers, doctors and front-line care providers say they need more data and more time to understand a shift this large.

But there is a growing, tentative consensus that the answer may well be "all of the above."

March 25, 2025

Cuomo maintains dominant Democratic primary lead in new poll

By 

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo entering NYC Mayor's race
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Photo By Dean Moses

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo remains far ahead of the rest of the Democratic primary field after nearly a month as a declared candidate in the 2025 NYC mayor’s race, according to a new poll released on Tuesday.

The same poll also found that 80% of Democratic voters said they would not support Mayor Eric Adams no matter what he says or does. 

Cuomo, who resigned in 2021 following 11 allegations of sexual misconduct that he denies, led the Honan Strategy Group poll with 41% of first-round Democratic primary votes. The former governor would then win in the fifth round of ranked-choice counting with 51% of the vote.

The survey further cements Cuomo’s current status as the frontrunner in the race to replace Mayor Adams, and follows a series of other polls before he jumped into the contest that also showed him coming out on top. In the weeks since his March 1 campaign launch, Cuomo has raised $1.5 million and swept up endorsements from several pols, labor unions, and political organizations — many of whom had previously backed Adams.

“We generally don’t comment on polls, but this shows what we all know, the city is in crisis and New Yorkers believe that Andrew Cuomo is the candidate with the experience and the record of results needed to tackle the issues at hand and make New York City a safer and more affordable place for all,” said Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi in a statement.

The group’s survey of 909 city Democratic voters was conducted between March 18-20 and commissioned by Tusk Strategies. The firm’s CEO Chris Coffey supports Cuomo and has reportedly made calls on the former governor’s behalf, but says Tusk commissioned a series of polls with Honan before Cuomo was in the race, and he had nothing to do with conducting them.

Anybody but Adams, poll respondents say

Mayor Eric Adams.
Mayor Eric Adams.Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office

Mayor Adams, who came in 4th in the poll with (6%) of the vote, is underwater with most Democratic primary voters, the survey found. Only 15% of Democrats contacted by pollsters indicated they would still consider voting for the embattled mayor in the June 24 primary, which comes as his fundraising has slowed to a trickle and he has hardly campaigned for re-election.

Adams’ campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Furthermore, just 10% said they would be open to a prospective independent run in the general election. Adams has not denied rumors that he is considering running as an independent if he loses the primary, when asked by reporters.

Socialist Mamdani near 20% 

Queens Assembly member and Democratic socialist candidate for mayor Zohran MamdaniPhoto by Gabriele Holtermann

Coming behind Cuomo in the poll at 18%, is Democratic socialist Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani (Queens), whose upstart campaign has been gaining momentum over the past couple of months.

Mamdani said the poll shows that he is the candidate best position to defeat Cuomo, given that he is still unknown to 56% of voters and he raised millions of dollars in campaign cash.

“While Cuomo sold out New Yorkers for a book deal, slashed funding for our schools and subways, and curried favor from real estate moguls like Donald Trump, Zohran is laser-focused on the needs of working New Yorkers—and will continue to make that known until Election Day,” the Mamdani campaign said in a statement attacking Cuomo’s $5 million COVID-19 book deal, funding cuts as governor, and close ties to the real estate industry.

Following Mamdani are City Comptroller Brad Lander (8%), Mayor Adams (6%), former Comptroller Scott Stringer and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (4%), and state Sens. Jessica Ramos (Queens) and Zellnor Myrie (Brooklyn) (2%).