SHATTERED: Journal of the American Republic

May 26, 2025

The Democrats’ problems run deep, nearly everywhere.How Donald Trump Has Remade America’s Political Landscape

The Democrats’ problems run deep, nearly everywhere. This is where voters shifted toward President Trump in each of the last three elections.

And this is where voters shifted toward Democrats.

Donald J. Trump’s victory in 2024 was not an outlier.

It was the culmination of continuous gains by Republicans in much of the country each time he has run for president, a sea of red that amounts to a flashing warning sign for a Democratic Party out of power and hoping for a comeback.

The steady march to the right at the county level reveals not just the extent of the nation’s transformation in the Trump era but also the degree to which the United States now resembles two countries charging in opposite directions.

Republicans are overwhelmingly making gains in working-class counties.

Democrats are improving almost exclusively in wealthier areas. Democrats are gaining ground in a small sliver of the best-educated enclaves.

It is the same story by education: Republicans are running up the score in counties where fewer people have attended college.

Triple-trending counties that shifted furthest to the left from 2012 to 2024

County	2012 result	2024 result	Shift size
Henry, Ga.	R+3	D+30	D+33
Rockdale, Ga.	D+17	D+48	D+31
Forsyth, Ga.	R+63	R+33	D+30
Hamilton, Ind.	R+34	R+6	D+28
Fayette, Ga.	R+31	R+3	D+28
Douglas, Ga.	D+4	D+31	D+28
Cobb, Ga.	R+12	D+15	D+27
Los Alamos, N.M.	D+4	D+30	D+27
Johnson, Kan.	R+17	D+8	D+26
Broomfield, Colo.	D+6	D+29	D+23

Just nine counties voted more Democratic in each of the presidential elections since 2012 and shifted by a total of more than 25 percentage points.

Six of those nine counties surround Atlanta.

The other three are upscale suburbs of Indianapolis and Kansas City, and the postage-stamp-size county in New Mexico that houses the Los Alamos National Laboratory, an outpost of highly educated and highly paid workers.

On the other hand, 535 counties shifted toward the Republicans in all three presidential elections and by a total of at least 25 percentage points. They were spread across 36 states, from diverse Democratic strongholds like the Bronx in New York City, where the Black and Latino population tops 80 percent, to overwhelmingly white and rural counties.

Triple-trending counties that shifted furthest to the right from 2012 to 2024

County	2012 result	2024 result	Shift size
Starr, Texas	D+73	R+16	R+89
Maverick, Texas	D+58	R+18	R+77
Zapata, Texas	D+43	R+22	R+66
Elliott, Ky.	D+3	R+62	R+64
Duval, Texas	D+54	R+10	R+64
Webb, Texas	D+54	R+2	R+56
Pike, Ohio	R+0	R+54	R+54
Reeves, Texas	D+16	R+37	R+53
Zavala, Texas	D+68	D+14	R+53
Howard, Iowa	D+21	R+32	R+53

Some Democrats have taken comfort from how narrowly Mr. Trump won the popular vote in 2024, or from how closely the battleground states were contested, or from the expectation that the voters who will turn out in the 2026 midterms — who tend to be wealthier and more educated — will lean Democratic.

But many others worry about the future of a party that is hemorrhaging vital support from what were once among its most rock-solid constituencies.

“The majority of Americans now believe that the Republican Party best represents the interests of the working class and the poor, the Democratic Party is the party of the wealthy and the elites,” lamented Ken Martin, who took over as chairman of the Democratic National Committee this year.

Reversing that view, he said in an interview, was one of his top priorities.

Texas and New York tell the tale.

The story of the country’s political trajectory can be told through a closer look at two of America’s biggest states, one red and one blue: Texas and New York.

In Texas, Mr. Trump made successive gains in 124 of its 254 counties, from rural, nearly all-white places to diverse counties along the southern border where he achieved many of his greatest increases in vote share in the entire country.

Where voters consecutively shifted in one direction in the last three elections

Of Texas’ 126 counties that shifted consecutively in one direction over the last three elections, only two shifted to the left.

The biggest swing in the nation since 2012, moving 89 percentage points in Mr. Trump’s favor, occurred in Starr County, which includes Rio Grande City and borders Mexico. It is also the nation’s most predominantly Latino county, with a 96 percent Hispanic voting-age population.

All told, Mr. Trump steadily improved his vote share over the three campaigns by more than 50 percentage points in seven heavily Hispanic counties in South Texas.

The parts of the state where Democrats most improved in the Trump era are concentrated in wealthy, well-educated suburbs. Four of the five counties where Democrats gained the most ground in 2024 compared with 2012 were outside Dallas, including the only Texas county that steadily voted more Democratic over that time, Ellis County.

“This may sound crazy to you: Maybe this had to happen for the Democratic Party to wake up and stop taking people for granted based on the color of their skin, or their country of national origin, or where they live in the state,” said Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who has run unsuccessfully for president and for the Senate. “If we don’t do that, we will continue to lose.”

Where voters consecutively shifted in one direction in the last three elections in New York

The results were echoed in New York, where 43 of the state’s 62 counties voted more Republican by at least 10 percentage points in 2024 compared with in 2012. The overall margin of victory for Democrats statewide was slashed in half.

The lone New York county to trend continuously toward the Democrats was Tompkins County, home to Ithaca, an overwhelmingly progressive university town where nearly 60 percent of residents have a college degree.

Yet counties that have shifted three times toward Mr. Trump include not only far-upstate counties, like St. Lawrence and Lewis, with vanishingly small nonwhite populations, but also some of the nation’s most diverse areas, like the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn.

“We could be entering a world where the greatest predictor of voting behavior is no longer race,” said Representative Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from the Bronx. “Donald Trump’s greatest achievement — his greatest electoral achievement — lies not in breaking the blue wall in the industrial Midwest, but in beginning to break the blue walls in states like New York, and in counties like the Bronx.”

May 22, 2025

The Combs case and its victim blaming

Cassie Ventura, right, walks out of the courtroom past Sean Diddy Combs after testifying in Manhattan federal court, Tuesday, May 13, 2025, in New York. (Elizabeth Williams via AP)

By Lauren Hersh

May 21, 2025 at 5:00 AM EDT

Why didn’t she leave? How could she stay so long? Why didn’t she say no?

These questions are on repeat in the high-profile trial of Sean “Diddy” Combs. The disgraced music mogul stands accused of sex trafficking — coercing sex acts through a long-standing pattern of physical, sexual, and psychological abuse. But if you listen to much of the coverage — on television, radio or social media — you might think it’s Cassie Ventura, not Combs who’s on trial.

As both national director of America’s largest anti-trafficking coalition and former chief of the Sex Trafficking Unit at the Brooklyn DA’s Office, I’ve seen this pattern far too often: survivors disbelieved, trauma scrutinized, and abuse framed as “consensual.”

A quick glance at social media showcases an avalanche of comments claiming Cassie invited the violence and if she truly wanted to leave she would have. This flawed narrative is not only damaging to Cassie, but dangerous for victims everywhere.

Cassie’s account is a textbook example of sex trafficking. She explained how Combs began grooming her when she was just 19 and he was 37, leveraging his massive power in the music industry to draw her in. This age gap, combined with wealth and influence, created a significant power imbalance. This wasn’t a relationship built on consent…but rather coercive control.

Cassie detailed drug-fueled, around-the-clock commercial sex acts, extreme physical violence and severe intimidation. The abuse was so cruel and undeniable that Diddy’s defense conceded it from the outset. Cassie testified Combs surveilled her constantly, had access to guns and threatened to release life-destroying blackmail videos. These tactics systematically stripped Cassie of her sense of safety and left her emotionally trapped.

Beyond the physical abuse, Cassie endured a steady drumbeat of insidious threats that sent an unmistakable message: the violence could escalate at any moment. One of the most chilling examples is the allegation that Combs blew up a car belonging to someone Cassie had been seen speaking to — a calculated act of intimidation to showcase exactly the danger he was capable of.

As a former prosecutor, I’ve seen how traffickers use terror tactics to enforce compliance. In one case I worked on, a defendant caught a mouse, held it by the tail, and slowly dipped it into a toilet in front of the victim — nearly drowning it. He didn’t need to say a word. Like Combs’ car explosion, the message was crystal clear: This is what will happen to you if you don’t obey.

Another time, a victim wanted me to know she often thought of leaving this life. She even attempted several times. But, every time she packed her bags, just as she made it to the door, her trafficker would coldly recite the address where her little sister went to after-care. The message was simple, but chillingly unambiguous.

So, when people wonder why Cassie never left, the answer is not quite so simple. One of the most difficult issues to grapple with is how genuine fear could co-exist with the loving, eager tone of some of Cassie’s texts and communications to Diddy.

People understandably wonder how a woman could express such enthusiasm and affection toward a violent man she feared. The answer lies in our growing understanding of how “coercive control” — a hallmark of intimate partner violence — works. Affection and abuse are not mutually exclusive.

Speak with most sex trafficking survivors, and they’ll tell you that traffickers rely on entangling emotions. The weaving in-and-out of affection, dependency, confusion and fear is not accidental. Its a deliberate tactic of deepening control. If a person was purely cruel every moment, the manipulation wouldn’t work. That emotional whiplash creates the powerful psychological tie that makes leaving feel not only difficult, but dangerous.

There remains harmful expectations that if a victim doesn’t fight back or resist unequivocally, she must have consented to the abuse. But Cassie’s inability to escape wasn’t a sign of consent; it was evidence of how deep Combs’ control ran.

While I hope Diddy’s jury examines the overwhelming evidence — the videos, photo and testimony — to see it for exactly what it is, my deeper hope is that, as a society, we begin shifting our reflexes. The knee-jerk reaction to doubt and blame victims must end. Every time we dismiss survivors or excuse abusers’ actions, we reinforce the systems enabling violence and exploitation to flourish.

It’s time to stop giving a free pass to the powerful and start holding them accountable — not just in courtrooms, but throughout our culture.

Hersh is the national director of World Without Exploitation and the former chief of the Brooklyn DA’s Sex Trafficking Unit.

May 17, 2025

Cassie Ventura: I’d give $20M back to Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs to erase trauma of twisted ‘freak-offs’

Cassie Ventura. (Lionel Cironneau/AP)

By Molly Crane-Newman | New York Daily News
UPDATED: May 16, 2025 at 6:32 PM EDT

Casandra “Cassie” Ventura concluded her bombshell testimony in Sean “Diddy” Combs’ sex-trafficking trial Friday, telling a jury through tears that she’d give back $20 million to erase the trauma from more than a decade of his demeaning and disgusting abuse.

“I’d give that money back if it meant I never had to have freak-offs,” an emotional Ventura told prosecutor Emily Johnson in Manhattan federal court, saying her agency and autonomy would be things “I wouldn’t have had to work so hard to get [back].”

Asked how sleeping with strangers for Combs’ sexual gratification made her feel, Ventura, 38, said, “Worthless. Just like dirt. Like I didn’t matter to him. Like I was nothing. Absolutely nothing.”

The disclosures came toward the end of Ventura’s four days on the stand, during which she revealed the massive sum Combs paid to settle a lawsuit — within just 24 hours of her filing it — alleging he raped her that she brought in November 2023.

Cassie Ventura takes an oath before testifying in Manhattan federal court on Tuesday. (Elizabeth Williams via AP)

During nearly two days of cross-examination, Combs’ defense — which called Ventura the most critical witness to discredit — tried to portray her as having consented to the freak-offs, not being coerced, since she was desperate to satisfy Combs, and having an ax to grind over jealousy of his cheating. The jailed mogul’s lawyer, Anna Estevao, sought to characterize toxicity in their relationship as stemming from drug addiction and mental health issues they both battled, revealing through one question that Combs had bipolar disorder.

Estevao also tried to cast doubt on Ventura’s claim that Combs raped her in 2018 after they’d broken up by highlighting how Ventura had dated the incident to September of that year in her suit but now believed it happened in August and that she’d admitted sleeping with Combs consensually once more after that incident. The defense lawyer also tried to paint the singer as motivated by money, highlighting in her last question that Ventura expects to receive a $10 million settlement from the Intercontinental Hotel in Los Angeles, where Combs was captured on surveillance video brutally assaulting her in March 2016 after Ventura had tried to escape a freak-off where he previously assaulted her.

Estevao also introduced scores of text messages showing Combs being kind and loving. Toward the end of cross-examination Friday, jurors saw Combs and Ventura having amicable exchanges after she left him in 2018, with him writing in one text message, “Sending you love and light. Had a dream about you last night. What a difference a year makes.” In another exchange, he said, “I miss my best friend,” and Ventura replied that she missed him, too.

When prosecutors resumed questioning Ventura, Johnson asked whether Combs’ periods of affection ever lasted.

“No,” Ventura said, adding they were always followed by a “downswing,” and frequently by violent and unpredictable outbursts.

Of sexually explicit texts from Ventura to Combs that jurors were shown, which the defense highlighted during cross-examination, Ventura reiterated to prosecutors that she only ever wanted to have sex with Combs.

Raising the possibility of a mistrial, prosecutors had urged the court to ensure a heavily pregnant Ventura’s testimony ended by Friday, saying she could give birth as soon as this weekend. The mother of two disclosed horrific accounts of physical and psychological abuse she suffered under Combs during their nearly 11-year relationship in her testimony, which began Tuesday. She recounted regular, savage beatings and coercion into engaging in dehumanizing sexual performances with male escorts, which Combs directed and masturbated during.

The “Me & U” singer said she first met the powerful music mogul, 17 years her senior, when she was signed to Bad Boy Records at age 19, and that they started dating within two years. She told the court she was sexually inexperienced when they started sleeping together, and that he had presented a warped version of a “swingers lifestyle” and “voyeurism” in introducing the concept of freak-offs. She said Combs was long the dominating force in her life and that the demoralizing sessions took place while the music mogul had complete control over her career and micromanaged every aspect of her day to day. The freak-offs, she said, left her with regular urinary tract infections, painful mouth sores and gastrointestinal issues.

Ventura said she participated in “hundreds” of freak-offs, which could include three days or more of no sleep, sex with multiple men and potent cocktails of narcotics fed to her by Combs. In graphic detail, jurors heard how Combs sometimes directed men to urinate on her and engage in other depraved acts. Ventura testified that she submitted to the sordid performances initially out of love and later to keep Combs’ violence at bay and to stop him from releasing sex tapes of her. Combs’ defense, on cross-examination, tried to push back on Ventura’s claims that he threatened to publicly release tapes of the freak-offs to blackmail her, highlighting how he appeared in some of them, too.

Under questioning by the prosecution Friday, Ventura said her promising music career died out as her life became consumed entirely by performing and participating in sexual performances orchestrated by Combs.

“I had a whole other job,” Ventura said, saying it was, in essence, like being a sex worker.

Cassie Ventura and Sean "Diddy" Combs arrive at the Los Angeles premiere of "Can't Stop, Won't Stop: A Bad Boy Story," at the Writers Guild Theater, June 21, 2017, in Beverly Hills. (Chris Pizzello/Invision/AP)

Combs, 55, has pleaded not guilty to racketeering conspiracy, two counts of sex trafficking by force, fraud or coercion, and two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution. He could face life in prison if convicted.

Prosecutors say the Bad Boy Records co-founder coerced women into fulfilling his sick sexual desires with help from a network of high-ranking employees, unlimited resources and immense influence from 2004 to 2024.

Combs allegedly coerced Ventura and another woman, Jane, a pseudonym, under the guise of a romantic relationship, to engage in freak-offs with commercial sex workers, and sexually assaulted a former assistant, the feds’ case says. Jane and the assistant, referred to by the pseudonym Mia, have yet to take the stand.

After Ventura, prosecutors called Homeland Security agent Yasin Binda to testify about items recovered from Combs’ room at The Park Hyatt Hotel on W. 57th St. ahead of his September 2024 arrest.

Jurors saw photographs the feds took of several bottles of Johnson’s Baby Oil and Astroglide lubricant, a Louis Vuitton toiletry bag containing prescription drugs labeled for Frank Black — which Ventura previously said was an alias used to book rooms for freak-offs — small bags of pink ketamine, and a bag filled with thousands of dollars. Displaying the cash for the jury, Binda fanned out $9,000.

May 16, 2025

If Dept of Justice Does Not Have Grounds To Charge Pol Opponents with a Crime, It Will "Name and Shame Them," Acc. to Aide.

Department of Justice leaders are also consolidating power under the claim of ending weaponization. In a dramatic reversal of Department of Justice policies, Trump loyalist Ed Martin said yesterday that when the department finds it does not have the grounds to charge political opponents with a crime, it will “name” and “shame” them, attempting to convict them in the court of public opinion rather than a court of law. Trump initially nominated Martin to be the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, but Martin’s extremism convinced Senate Republican Thom Tillis to vote with Democrats on the Judiciary Committee to stop his nomination.

Today, U.S. Circuit Judge Amy St. Eve and Judge Robert Conrad, both of whom were appointed by Republican presidents, asked the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government to increase funding for judges’ security. David Gilbert of Wired reported today that calls for impeachment and violent threats against U.S. judges on social media have gone up by 327% since last year.

May 15, 2025

Young boys are struggling,

BOY PROBLEMS

Young boys are struggling, and we wanted to figure out just how badly and why.

Boys enter kindergarten lagging behind girls in both academic readiness and behavior. A majority of teenagers agree that boys are more disruptive. Large shares say girls get better grades, have more leadership roles and speak up more in class.

Note: Survey conducted Sept. 18-Oct. 10. Home-schooled teens were not included. Shares of respondents who did not offer an answer are not shown. Source: Pew Research Center The New York Times

In interviews, young men say that school never felt like a good fit for them, or that they got the sense that teachers didn’t like boys, and that this left them feeling discouraged or undervalued. By high school, girls are more likely to graduate on time — and more likely to go to college.

Note: Individuals ages 16-24 are counted here if enrolled in a two- or four-year college by October in the year of their high school graduation or equivalent. Source: National Center for Education Statistics The New York Times

Young men are struggling in their mental health and transitions to adulthood, too. What’s going on here? I’m reporting a series on boys, the first installment of which published today. I’d love to hear your experiences and insights about what’s going on with boys, and what might be driving it. Tell The Times what you think here. — Claire Cain Miller

May 14, 2025

TRUMP VISITS THE GULF

Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Doug Mills/The New York Times

Below, Michael Shear, a Times correspondent, explores Trump’s relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Trump is visiting the Gulf and meeting with leaders across the region. It has so far been a friendly trip: Trump has shown a chumminess, even infatuation, with his counterparts in the Saudi royal family. Here are three reasons Trump seems to love Saudi Arabia:

Gold, everywhere: I was in the group of reporters who traveled with Trump on his first trip to Saudi Arabia as president in 2017. The opulence was overwhelming. But it was clear that Trump, who has a famous preference for gilded architecture, loved it.

This trip appears to be the same. As my colleagues wrote: “With its giant crystal chandeliers, polished marble, plush carpets and prominently displayed portraits of King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the Saudi Royal Court had the feel of a Mar-a-Lago East.”

Business deals: Trump’s trip to Riyadh is, essentially, one big boardroom meeting. The president has also proved over the years that he appreciates — maybe even envies — strong leaders who have few constraints on the exercise of power. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, certainly qualifies.

Money: Finally, there is Saudi’s vast wealth, which comes largely from oil. In his speech yesterday, Trump bragged about the American economy, calling it the “hottest country” in the world. Then he stopped himself, looked at the crown prince, and laughed. “With the exception of your country,” he said. “You’re hotter. At least as long as I’m up here, you’re hotter.”

On Trump’s agenda today

Syria: Trump met with the Syrian president today, for the first time. It’s a remarkable rise for the leader of the rebel uprising that ousted Bashar al-Assad. Trump said the U.S. would lift sanctions on Syria.

Iran: Trump said he wants a nuclear deal with Iran. Instead of dismantling its nuclear program, Iran has proposed a joint nuclear-enrichment venture involving Arab countries and U.S. investments.

Israel: The president won’t meet with Benjamin Netanyahu on this trip, signaling a growing rift.

War in Ukraine: The president said he would also consider joining a potential meeting this week between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky arrived, but Vladimir Putin is a no-show. Refusing to meet Zelensky, the Russian leader sent a junior team to Istanbul for the talks, ignoring the Ukrainian president’s call to meet for direct high-level talks, Whether talks between the warring nations will occur at all is uncertain.