September 11, 2012

WHERE WE ARE AFTER THE CONVENTIONS

Updated: An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows several signs of strength for President Obama after the national conventions, but among likely voters, the presidential race remains deadlocked.
The poll finds Mr. Obama with 50 percent support to Mitt Romney’s 44 percent support among registered voters, his best showing since early April in ABC News/Washington Post surveys, a difference that is within the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
But among likely voters, gleaned through screens used by polling organizations once voters begin paying a lot of attention to the race by late summer and fall, the candidates are running neck and neck, with 49 percent for Mr. Obama and 48 percent for Mr. Romney.

This week portends to be a very busy reporting period for major media polling organizations, now that the political conventions have ended and surveys are examining whether either candidate has received much of a bounce from the gatherings. So far, polls have shown that Mr. Romney received little or no bounce after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., while in the time since the Democratic convention in Charlotte, N.C., ended last Thursday, survey results for Mr. Obama have generally given him an edge. The CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday put the president ahead at 52 percent to Mr. Romney’s 46 percent.

With only about 1 in 10 voters remaining truly undecided during this election cycle, small gains or losses in the polls are viewed as more meaningful to the campaigns.

On Tuesday afternoon, Gallup released its daily tracking survey taken post-convention that also showed a small bounce for Mr. Obama. Polling conducted Friday through Saturday showed Mr. Obama with 50 percent to Mr. Romney’s 44 percent among registered voters, up from a 47 to 46 percent race in polling conducted in the days before the Democratic convention.
Gallup’s analysis shows that Mr. Obama’s three-point gain in voter support is below the average of post-convention bounces of five points, going back to 1964, but is a slightly better upshot than Mr. Romney’s one-point gain. In 2008, Mr. Obama had a four-point lift in Gallup’s post-convention polling.

The ABC News/Washington Post survey showed Mr. Obama also gaining ground on a few measures among the larger sample of registered voters, including on handling taxes and Medicare, and being seen as the stronger leader. Enthusiasm among his supporters also grew, and new highs of support came from Democrats and men. Mr. Romney’s support eroded among moderates, whites and higher-income voters.