By JEFF ZELENY and MARJORIE CONNELLY Published: October 30, 2012 NYT
President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the campaign in an exceedingly narrow race, according to the latest poll by The New York Times and CBS News, with more voters now viewing Mr. Romney as a stronger leader on the economy and Mr. Obama as a better guardian of the middle class.
The president is holding his coalition together with strong support from women and minority voters and is supported by 48 percent of likely voters nationwide, the poll found, while Mr. Romney holds a wide advantage among independents and men and is the choice of 47 percent.
October 30, 2012, NATE SILVER NYT
The effects of Hurricane Sandy on next Tuesday’s election are hard to predict. But the storm is likely to have an impact on the volume of polling in the meantime.
Three of the eight national tracking polls — those from Gallup, Investors’ Business Daily and Public Policy Polling — have announced temporary suspensions in their polling. Further delays and cancellations are likely over the next few days, especially in the Northeastern states.
Obama continues to lead Romney 50% to 49%. Obama continues to lag by 1% in Florida and to have a 3% lead in Ohio.The electoral count projection is 295 votes for Obama and 243for Romney.
The Washington Post:
The new Pew poll shows the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney a dead heat among likely voters [47% apiece] -- what else is new -- but also provides plenty of other fascinating glimpses into the relative strengths and weaknesses of each man as well as the mindset of the electorate with election day just a week off.
We combed through the poll -- while sequestered in official Fix headquarters to wait out Hurricane Sandy -- and came up with [five] takeaways. They are below.
1. A Republican intensity gap: More than three-quarters (76 percent) of Republican and lean Republican voters said they are likely to vote on Nov. 6 as compared with 62 percent of Democrats and lean Democratic voters. That double-digit intensity gap should be concerning for Democrats as, typically, the side whose base is more energized usually winds up winning.
2. Obama's huge "connection" edge: As has been the case in previous Pew data (as well as virtually every other polling conducted in the race) the new Pew survey shows a huge edge to Obama when voters are asked which of the two candidates better connects with "ordinary" Americans. Fifty nine percent of Pew's sample said Obama connects better while 31 percent say Romney does. (Worth noting: That 28-point gap was significantly smaller than the 43-point bulge Obama enjoyed over Romney on the question in mid-September.) If the election comes down to voters asking themselves which of the two men "gets" them better, President Obama will be re-elected.
3. Romney as the "ideas" candidate: Despite Democratic attacks that allege that Romney has offered nothing in the way of new (or specific) ideas on what he would do differently or better than Obama, voters -- at least in the Pew poll -- don't see things that way. Forty six percent say Romney has "new ideas" while 41 percent say the same of Obama. That gap grows to 16 points in Romney's favor when only swing voters are sampled in the Pew data. Romney's lead on the question is exhibit No. 1 on how difficult it is to run as the new/change/fresh face when you are the incumbent president of the United States.
4. First debate mattered more: When we tweeted that Romney's clear win in the first debate probably mattered more than Obama's narrow win in the second debate and less-narrow win in the final debate, liberals blanched. But, the Pew data suggest the first debate simply did matter more. Thirty six percent of people said that the three debates gave them a better opinion of Romney while just 18 percent said the same of Obama. Some of those numbers are explained by the fact that Romney was less well known than Obama going into the first debate and in his solid performance he effectively beat back the caricature the Obama team had crafted of him in their television ad onslaught. Regardless of the reasons though, the debates -- especially the first one -- are the reason Romney is as close as he is in the race today.
5. An overblown gender gap focus?: In the Pew data Romney is losing women by six points. If he keeps that margin on election day, Romney would lose the female vote by less than half the margin that John McCain lost them in 2008. (McCain lost women by 13 points.) In fact, if Romney fell short to Obama among women voters by just six points, it would be the narrowest loss for a Republican presidential candidate among females in more than 20 years. It's worth noting that many other national surveys suggest a wider gender gap than Pew but as we have noted before, the idea that Romney is headed toward anything like a historically large loss among women voters simply isn't born out by the data.
The effects of Hurricane Sandy on next Tuesday’s election are hard to predict. But the storm is likely to have an impact on the volume of polling in the meantime.
Three of the eight national tracking polls — those from Gallup, Investors’ Business Daily and Public Policy Polling — have announced temporary suspensions in their polling. Further delays and cancellations are likely over the next few days, especially in the Northeastern states.
Obama continues to lead Romney 50% to 49%. Obama continues to lag by 1% in Florida and to have a 3% lead in Ohio.The electoral count projection is 295 votes for Obama and 243for Romney.
The Washington Post:
The new Pew poll shows the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney a dead heat among likely voters [47% apiece] -- what else is new -- but also provides plenty of other fascinating glimpses into the relative strengths and weaknesses of each man as well as the mindset of the electorate with election day just a week off.
We combed through the poll -- while sequestered in official Fix headquarters to wait out Hurricane Sandy -- and came up with [five] takeaways. They are below.
1. A Republican intensity gap: More than three-quarters (76 percent) of Republican and lean Republican voters said they are likely to vote on Nov. 6 as compared with 62 percent of Democrats and lean Democratic voters. That double-digit intensity gap should be concerning for Democrats as, typically, the side whose base is more energized usually winds up winning.
2. Obama's huge "connection" edge: As has been the case in previous Pew data (as well as virtually every other polling conducted in the race) the new Pew survey shows a huge edge to Obama when voters are asked which of the two candidates better connects with "ordinary" Americans. Fifty nine percent of Pew's sample said Obama connects better while 31 percent say Romney does. (Worth noting: That 28-point gap was significantly smaller than the 43-point bulge Obama enjoyed over Romney on the question in mid-September.) If the election comes down to voters asking themselves which of the two men "gets" them better, President Obama will be re-elected.
3. Romney as the "ideas" candidate: Despite Democratic attacks that allege that Romney has offered nothing in the way of new (or specific) ideas on what he would do differently or better than Obama, voters -- at least in the Pew poll -- don't see things that way. Forty six percent say Romney has "new ideas" while 41 percent say the same of Obama. That gap grows to 16 points in Romney's favor when only swing voters are sampled in the Pew data. Romney's lead on the question is exhibit No. 1 on how difficult it is to run as the new/change/fresh face when you are the incumbent president of the United States.
4. First debate mattered more: When we tweeted that Romney's clear win in the first debate probably mattered more than Obama's narrow win in the second debate and less-narrow win in the final debate, liberals blanched. But, the Pew data suggest the first debate simply did matter more. Thirty six percent of people said that the three debates gave them a better opinion of Romney while just 18 percent said the same of Obama. Some of those numbers are explained by the fact that Romney was less well known than Obama going into the first debate and in his solid performance he effectively beat back the caricature the Obama team had crafted of him in their television ad onslaught. Regardless of the reasons though, the debates -- especially the first one -- are the reason Romney is as close as he is in the race today.
5. An overblown gender gap focus?: In the Pew data Romney is losing women by six points. If he keeps that margin on election day, Romney would lose the female vote by less than half the margin that John McCain lost them in 2008. (McCain lost women by 13 points.) In fact, if Romney fell short to Obama among women voters by just six points, it would be the narrowest loss for a Republican presidential candidate among females in more than 20 years. It's worth noting that many other national surveys suggest a wider gender gap than Pew but as we have noted before, the idea that Romney is headed toward anything like a historically large loss among women voters simply isn't born out by the data.