The White House is betting that opposition to Chuck Hagel, a maverick Republican former senator won’t stop his confirmation in the Senate.
WASHINGTON POST POLITICAL FIX
President Obama can be certain of one thing: The former Nebraska Republican Senator will face a major fight to win confirmation.
In conversations with a handful of current and former Senate aides — of both parties — over the weekend, there was almost uniform agreement that Hagel faces a rocky road to confirmation although none were willing to predict that he won’t make the finish line.
The focus at the moment is on the Republican opposition to Hagel, opposition built around not simply his policy stances on Iran and Iraq, but also on his decision to, in their eyes, abandon the GOP once he left office.
“He basically doesn’t have a single Senate Republican friend who served with him,” said one senior GOP Senate aide granted anonymity to speak candidly. The source added that Hagel had not only given cover to Democrats on a number of high-profile issues but that he had also badly alienated his colleagues with his strong endorsement of former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey in the 2012 Nebraska Senate race.
“Some Senate Republicans are still livid at his support for Bob Kerrey,” acknowledged a senior Democratic with long ties to the Senate. “I think that’s the real rub.”
While the Republican opposition to Hagel has drawn most of the headlines to date, however, the real danger to Obama’s pick to lead the Pentagon is from within the President’s own party. Past failed nominees — both for Cabinet posts and Supreme Court — have largely been done in not by the political opposition but rather by their own side. (See Miers, Harriet.)
And, while Hagel seemed to extinguish — or at least mitigate — a controversy over past comments about openly gay Ambassador James Hormel by issuing a full apology, his statements on Israel remain a major concern for Democrats, according to one veteran party aide in the Senate.
Added the source: ”For these Democrats, the only reason to support Hagel is out of pure loyalty to the President. That is a major consideration, obviously, but Hagel will have some explaining to do on his past statements. A path certainly exists for him to be confirmed, but the administration can’t simply take it for granted that there are 50 Democratic votes for him. They will need to work it.”
(If you need a gauge on whether Hagel is going to make it, keep an eye on Senator Chuck Schumer. Schumer has been lukewarm — at best — toward the prospect of Hagel at the Defense Department and the New York Senator is a major player and pivot point in this fight.)
Other Democrats expressed wonderment at Obama’s decision to pick Hagel when the president backed off in a similar situation with Susan Rice, his preferred choice at the State Department.
“Everyone is scratching their heads, wondering why this is the one time that the President has drawn a line in the sand and actually intends to stick to it,” said one Democratic Senate operative.
Added another Capitol Hill Democrat: “The choice is confounding…I think they can ultimately get through this fight, but the White House has to get ahead of this thing quickly.”
The White House is, of course, aware of both the opposition (in both parties) to Hagel and the blemish it would leave on the start of Obama’s second term to see his pick at Defense stumble in the confirmation process.
This, like much of politics, is a calculated risk by the White House designed, at least in part, to show that Obama won’t back down from the prospect of a fight — even one in which members of his own party may throw a punch or two his way.
Now, all he has to do is win.
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The president also announced John Brennan as his pick for director of the CIA, calling him “one of our nation’s most skilled and respected intelligence professionals.”