N.Y. TIMES
Speaker John A. Boehner has privately told Republican lawmakers anxious about fallout from the government shutdown that he would not allow a potentially more crippling federal default as the atmosphere on Capitol Hill turned increasingly tense.
Mr. Boehner’s comments, recounted by multiple lawmakers, that he would use a combination of Republican and Democratic votes to increase the federal debt limit if necessary appeared aimed at reassuring his colleagues — and nervous financial markets — that he did not intend to let the economic crisis spiral further out of control.
They came even though he has so far refused to allow a vote on a Senate budget measure to end the shutdown that many believe could pass with bipartisan backing. They also reflect Mr. Boehner’s view that a default would have widespread and long-term economic consequences while the shutdown, though disruptive, had more limited impact.
With the mood in Congress already unsettled by the bitter sparring over the fiscal standoff, the Capitol was shaken anew Thursday afternoon when a high-speed chase beginning near the White House ended near the Senate office complex with Capitol Police shooting the driver to death.
His comments were read by members of both parties as renewing his determination on the default and came as the Treasury warned that an impasse over raising the debt limit might prove catastrophic and potentially result “in a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse.”
It is conceivable that Mr. Boehner could pass a debt-limit increase with a slim majority of Republican votes, with Democrats making up the difference, as he has in the past on budget measures. But moving in that direction poses risks of a threat to Mr. Boehner’s leadership position from a watchful conservative bloc, which has warned that his post could be on the line if he goes against the legislative position of large numbers of the rank and file.
Representative John C. Fleming, Republican of Louisiana and one of his conference’s more conservative members, said that he doubted Mr. Boehner would be able to pass any bill — with or without Democratic support — that did not extract some significant concessions from Mr. Obama and Senate Democrats.
At the same time, growing numbers of House Republicans have expressed frustration at those insisting on changes to the health law when Mr. Obama has made clear he will not accept them. Their unhappiness, the furor caused by the shutdown and the desire to avoid default could help protect Mr. Boehner.
Boehner on the Tightrope:
Except one little thing, which is that the only way for that scenario to happen is for Boehner to allow a piece of legislation supported by roughly 7 percent of his conference to come to the House floor for a vote. And, doing that on something as high-profile as a government shutdown/Obamacare, would almost certainly signal either the symbolic (or maybe even practical) end of his speakership.
Why? First a bit of context.
On Jan. 1, 2013, Boehner put the deal to avert the fiscal cliff on the House floor. It passed with 257 votes — just 85 of which came from Republicans. Later that month, the House voted in favor of relief money for Hurricane Sandy victims although just 49 Republicans supported it. Then in February, the House re-authorized the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) with just 87 Republican votes. In all three cases, a minority of Republican House Members backed the measure.
So, there is both precedent and peril in allowing a vote on a measure that lacks the support of a majority of the House Republican conference. Precedent in that Boehner has done it before — although never with so few Republicans “yes” votes guaranteed — and peril in that, well, Boehner has done this sort of thing before.
Remember that Boehner came within a hair’s breadth of being forced into a second ballot vote to be re-elected Speaker at the start of the 113th Congress, and that was before the Sandy relief and VAWA votes. To allow another measure — and this one that not only deals with a government shutdown but also Obamacare — to pass with almost exclusively Democratic votes would be a bridge too far for lots and lots of House Republicans. There could well be an immediate revolt against Boehner and, even if there wasn’t, any chance that he would remain on as Speaker in 2015 (assuming Republicans hold the majority) would be gone.
Boehner knows that reality all too well. Without some sort of major concession — something he can go to his GOP conference with and say, “See, they gave in on this” — it would be political suicide for him to bring up a clean continuing resolution supported by less than 10 percent of his conference.
So, the government will remain shut unless that sort of deal is made or Boehner decides that he’s had enough of being Speaker.