TALKING POINTS
Health insurance is so hot this holiday season. Some 250,000 people selected plans through state and federal online exchanges in November—twice as many than did during Healthcare.gov’s glitchy first month, according to a report released Wednesday by the Department of Health and Human Services. But the total is way below the White House's goal of 3.3 million enrollees by December 31, although administration officials insisted they could still reach their goal of seven million enrollees by March. Additionally, more than 800,000 people have realized they are eligible for Medicaid.
GREG SARGENT WASHINGTON POST
It’s too soon to reach any definitive conclusions. But new polls suggest Democrats can hit the pause button on their full blown panic about the health law’s political impact.
Yes, the new NBC/WSJ poll contains absolutely awful numbers for Obama and the Affordable Care Act. Fifty-four percent disapprove of the president, the highest of his tenure. He has slipped in key categories, such as honesty and crisis management. Half the country says the law is a bad idea. Notably, a majority says by 51-43 that they are bothered more by the terrible rollout and people losing plans than by GOP efforts to sabotage the law. Republicans are still mostly winning the public opinion war over the ACA.
But the poll also finds only 26 percent favor total elimination of the law. (Republicans will argue another 31 percent favors a major overhaul, which is true, but Dems can try to speak to that with a “keep and fix” message, while Republicans are trapped in a total repeal stance.) Also: 58 percent say it hasn’t had much of an impact on them; and Dems still hold a six point edge on the health care issue. After a crush of truly horrific press about the ACA, only one quarter of the country wants to get rid of the law, suggesting the law is probably still on probation with many voters, despite all its problems – meaning there may still be room to turn things around.
Meanwhile, a New York Times poll similarly finds half the country disapproves of the law and Obama’s approval rating is at 42 percent, but both of those are improvements since November. The Times headline — “Obama sees a rebound in approval ratings — seems like a big reach. But this claim from the article seems fair: “The political fallout from the website’s start-up might be over.”
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Indeed, it’s possible the worst numbers reflect the awful rollout problems of November — which have now stabilized — and that the law will now begin to work moderately well. And that is all that matters: If it does work moderately well, and enrollment continues, and majorities continue to say it hasn’t affected them adversely, and only small minorities want to get rid of it, the law could recede from the headlines and have a mitigated political impact. Dems may be able to fight the Obamacare battle to a draw and fight out the 2014 elections over other issues, too. Of course, if it fails over the long haul, it will be a full blown political disaster for them. But only time will settle this.