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| Thom Tillis is one of eight Republican candidates looking to unseat Kay Hagan in the North Carolina Senate race. Credit Jeremy M. Lange for The New York Times |
N.Y TIMES
Four Senate races in the South that will most likely determine control of Congress appear very close, with Republicans benefiting from more partisan intensity but a Democratic incumbent, seen as highly vulnerable, holding a surprising edge, according to a New York Times Upshot/Kaiser Family Foundation poll.
The survey underscores a favorable political environment over all for Republicans in Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas — states President Obama lost in 2012 and where his disapproval rating runs as high as 60 percent. But it also shows how circumstances in each state are keeping them in play for the Democrats a little more than six months before the midterm elections.
Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, a two-term incumbent who has been considered perhaps the most imperiled Democratic senator in the country, holds a 10-point lead over his Republican opponent, Representative Tom Cotton. Mr. Pryor, the son of a former senator, has an approval rating of 47 percent, with 38 percent of Arkansas voters disapproving of him.
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| Senator Kay Hagan spoke with the press after a recent event in Durham, North Carolina. Credit Jeremy M. Lange for The New York Times |
Senator Kay Hagan, Democrat of North Carolina, appears more endangered as she seeks a second term. She has the support of 42 percent of voters, and Thom Tillis, the Republican state House speaker and front-runner for his party’s nomination, is at 40 percent. Unlike Mr. Pryor, however, Ms. Hagan’s approval rating, 44 percent, is the same as her disapproval number. If Mr. Tillis does not get 40 percent of the vote in next month’s primary, for example, he will face a runoff in July against a candidate running to his right.
In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, is also effectively tied with his Democratic rival, Alison Lundergan Grimes, a race that may be close because Mr. McConnell, first elected to the Senate in 1984, has the approval of only 40 percent of voters, while 52 percent disapprove. But Ms. Grimes must overcome Mr. Obama’s deep unpopularity in the state, where only 32 percent of voters approve of his performance.
With 42 percent support, Senator Mary L. Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, has an early lead in a race that is not fully formed against a large field of Republicans. Representative Bill Cassidy, the Republican front-runner, was the choice of 18 percent, and 20 percent had no opinion. There are two other Republicans in the race, but Louisiana has no primary. So all candidates of both parties will be on the ballot in November and, absent one of them taking 50 percent, there will be a runoff in December.
Republicans need to gain six seats to seize the majority, and will probably have to defeat at least two of the South’s three Democratic incumbents running this year to do so. Mr. McConnell, who also faces a primary challenge on May 20, is one of few Republican incumbents considered at risk.
A president’s approval rating, historically, is a strong predictor of overall midterm election outcomes, and the president’s party typically loses seats. Mr. Obama’s disapproval rating in Arkansas and Kentucky is 60 percent; in Louisiana, it is 54 percent, and in North Carolina, 51 percent.
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Attention to the campaigns is low, the polls found. Less than one quarter of each state’s voters say they are paying a lot of attention. Still, about three-quarters of the voters say they will definitely vote in November, and support for Republican candidates for both the House and the Senate is generally higher among those paying more attention to the campaign and more likely to vote.