WASHINGTON POST
A new poll set for release today underscores in a fresh way just how difficult a situation Democrats face in 2014, illustrating that they are dealing with the prospect of a truly precipitous dropoff from 2012 in turnout among key voter groups.
But the poll also suggests Dems may be able to offset this problem with a focus on concrete economic policies for working and middle class Americans — particularly women — such as equal pay and a minimum wage hike.
The poll — which was done by Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps for Women’s Voices Women Vote — finds that voters nationwide in the Rising American Electorate (unmarried women, young voters, minorities) are significantly less likely to vote in 2014 than other voters (non-RAE voters) are.
This is the core of the Dem dilemma: RAE voters are increasingly key to the victorious Dem coalition in national elections, thanks to the diversifying electorate. But they are among the least likely to turn out in midterms, unlike more GOP-aligned non-RAE voters, such as middle-aged and older white males and married women. (For more on this, see John Harwood and David Wasserman.)
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Today Obama will sign executive orders relating to equal pay and federal contractors, and the Senate will vote soon on the Paycheck Fairness Act. Nia-Malika Henderson has a useful overview of the policy and politics of what is shaping up as a major piece of the Dem campaign agenda for 2014.
As noted above, this is a reminder of how central women’s economics — and downscale and/or unmarried women as a key swing constituency — will be to the battle for the Senate.