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WASHINGTON POST, CHRIS CILLIZZA
You can understand President Obama's current political problems -- and how those problems could make things very tough for his party in this fall's midterm election -- in a single word. And that word is "competence."
Obama was elected in 2008 on a stated promise that he would restore competence to government. He pitched himself as the antidote to "Heck of a job, Brownie" and the Bush years, the person who would always put the most qualified candidate in every job in his Administration. That the basic functioning of government would never be in question.
Almost six years on from that election, however, Obama is faltering badly on the competence question and, in so doing, badly imperiling not only his ability to enact any sort of second term agenda but also Democrats' chances this fall. A series of events -- from the VA scandal to the ongoing border crisis to the situation in Ukraine to the NSA spying program -- have badly undermined the idea that Obama can effectively manage the government.
Obama's trajectory on the question is all to the bad for Democrats. Back in December 2009, more than three quarters of respondents in a CNN/ORC poll said that Obama was an effective manager of the government. By early November 2009 that number had dropped to 58 percent. It dipped below 50 percent for the first time in June 2010 and in the three polls in which CNN has asked the question since mid-November 2013, 40 percent, 43 percent and now 42 percent, respectively, have said that he is a good manager.
WASHINGTON POST, AARON BLAKE
Midterm-election polling dating back to 1946 shows that very few presidents have seen their fortunes improve by any significant measure between July and November of the election year. In only five out of 16 cases did the president have a better approval rating near Election Day than he did 100-plus days out, according to Gallup numbers.
[This] suggests that Democrats had better figure out a way to win with an unpopular president rather than hope that things get better.
Perhaps more depressing for Democrats and Obama is that few presidents are able to rebound in the final two years of their presidencies, either. Of the last six two-term presidents who served until the end of their final term, only two improved their lot over the final two and a half years.
The biggest improvement? Dwight Eisenhower's approval rating went up by seven points between 1958 and 1960.