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| Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas, left, and the independent candidate Greg Orman before a debate last month in Hutchinson, Kan. Credit Charlie Riedel/Associated Press |
NATE COHN, N.Y. TIMES
The fight for control of the Senate is stable and tight, with Republicans maintaining the inside track to a majority in the latest round of data from the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 100,000 respondents.
The Republicans lead by at least four percentage points in enough races to finish with 50 seats — just one short of the 51 seats they need to overcome Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote and take the Senate. The Republicans’ likely gains include six seats currently held by the Democrats: in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. If those leads hold up, Republicans have four opportunities to capture the 51st seat they need in Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas.
Nonetheless, the data suggests that the Democrats retain a clear, if difficult, path to victory. Perhaps most notable, the data offers reason to question the conventional wisdom that Republicans have recently made substantial gains in Colorado and Iowa.
The Democrats maintain a lead of at least four points in only enough races to hold 46 seats, but they hold a nominal edge in three more states: North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. If the Democrats sweep all three — an outcome by no means assured with such tenuous leads — Senate control could be decided by Kansas, where the Republican senator Pat Roberts is tied with the independent candidate Greg Orman. If Mr. Orman won and caucused with the Democrats, then they would hold the Senate.
In Georgia, the Republican David Perdue saw his lead fall to four percentage points against Michelle Nunn.
Ms. Nunn gained about a point among past respondents who switched from the undecided column, and also benefited from rising enthusiasm among black voters — who now represent 28 percent of likely voters, about the same as in 2010. Even so, Ms. Nunn faces the largest gap between the preferences of likely voters and registered voters of any Democratic candidate. Ms. Nunn is tied with Mr. Perdue among registered voters.
With so many close races and so few persuadable voters, turnout will be pivotal in many contests, including in Georgia. The Democrats have invested millions more than Republicans in building a strong turnout operation, and the effects of that effort are already evident in the YouGov data. More voters have been contacted by Democratic than Republican campaigns in every state but Kansas and Kentucky, where Republican senators fought competitive primaries. Whether the Democratic turnout machine can turn its advantage in voter contacts into additional votes on Election Day might well determine Senate control.