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| Jonathan Ernst, Reuters |
-- There is widespread consensus that Donald Trump had a very bad night in Greenville. The question is whether that will cause lasting damage, or if he continues to be coated in Teflon.
One of the problems for leaders of the chattering class is that they have been so wrong about Trump so many times for so many months that everyone is gun-shy about predicting his impending decline.
The billionaire was flustered and cranky. Not only was he thrown off his game by sustained boos from the crowd and a pile-on by his rivals, but he often sounded more like a Democrat than a Republican.
VOX, Matthew Yglesias : He didn’t just call George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq a disaster – which he has done before – but he blamed him for 9/11 Trump observed: "George Bush had the chance also, and he didn't listen to the advice of his CIA." Bush received repeated warnings about al-Qaeda plots against the United States, and his administration was given a plan to tackle al-Qaeda and the Taliban that it rejected as a holdover from the Clinton administration and a distraction from bigger problems.
Trump's claim that the Bush administration positively knew there were no WMDs in Iraq is more dubious, but it's unquestionably true that the sort of WMD programs the White House said existed weren't found and that the administration's public presentations of intelligence findings were highly skewed and selective. and said that the former president “lied” about the presence of weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for war.
-- If next Saturday’s Republican primary becomes solely a referendum on W, which it probably won’t, Jeb could win. The former president, who is flying to Charleston tomorrow night to campaign with his brother, still has an astronomical approval rating among likely voters in the Palmetto State. “I am sick and tired of him going after my family,” Jeb said. “While Donald Trump was building a reality TV show, my brother was building a security apparatus to keep us safe.”
Bush’s popularity in the Palmetto State is why Marco Rubio jumped to the 43rd president’s defense as much as his brother. “I thank God all the time that it was George W. Bush in the White House on 9/11 and not Al Gore,” the Florida senator said. “He kept us safe.”
It was one of the biggest applause lines of the night, and it prompted Trump to shout: “I lost hundreds of friends. The World Trade Center came down during the reign of George Bush! He kept us safe? That is not safe!”
Trump calling Bush a liar might have been a bridge too far, Dave Weigel thinks: “Republicans generally believe, against evidence, that Iraq held weapons of mass destruction when America invaded in 2003. In 2012, a poll conducted by a Dartmouth political scientist found that 63 percent of Republicans still thought this. Last year, a poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s Public Mind found a majority of Republicans, 51 percent believed WMD had been found in Iraq.”
Romney alum Katie Packer Gage’s group, Our Principles PAC, will launch a digital campaign today to highlight Trump’s support for impeaching W in 2008. Watch her ad here.
-- Recall that Trump was basically a non-factor during the previous two debates. He boycotted Fox News before the Iowa caucus, and his rivals basically avoided mentioning him. In New Hampshire last weekend on ABC the rest of the field was focused on arresting Rubio’s momentum. That means it has been quite a while since he took much real heat from his critics, with the exception of a clash with Jeb over eminent domain.
But last night, reflecting the establishment’s renewed focus on stopping Trump, the ninth Republican debate was almost entirely about Trump. He got the most airtime (16 minutes), two minutes more than Cruz and five minutes more than Bush, Rubio or Kasich. “Refusing to bow to party orthodoxy or even politeness, Trump trashed one of the most revered families in Republican politics and made a big political bet that standing his ground is better than backing down, no matter how much he is under fire," Dan Balz writes in his column.
Here’s the rub: Two-thirds of likely voters in South Carolina are not supporting Trump. An ARG poll that was in the field during the two days leading up to the debate has Trump at 35 percent, with a closely-bunched battle for second: Kasich at 15, Rubio at 14, Cruz at 12 and Bush at 10.
-- So will last night move the numbers?
The Fix’s Chris Cillizza: “Trump seemed somewhat out of control and angry for much of the debate. … Trump, who often comes across as tough yet good-natured, came across on Saturday night as downright mean in several exchanges with Bush and Cruz. (And, as any politician will tell you, it's tough to make Cruz into an empathetic figure.) Trump's hard-core supporters will never leave him — no matter how well or badly he does in a debate. And, his hard-core supporters may well be enough to carry him to victory in a week's time in South Carolina. But, that doesn't mean Trump was good Saturday night. He wasn't.” Chris names Rubio and Bush as the two winners.
The Republican Party: This debate was downright nasty. Tons of name-calling. Lots of quotes that can be harvested by Democrats to be used against whoever emerges from the current bloodbath to be the Republican nominee.Just a bad face to put forward to the public.
Post columnist Charles Krauthammer, on Fox, called Trump “VERY BITTER”: “He took a risk in being as open and often contemptuous as he was, BUT I don't think it's going to SHAKE his support. The question is, will it LIMIT his support?”
The Daily Beast’s Will Rahn: “If the Donald somehow starts to slip -- if his lead in South Carolina narrows, if a clear alternative to his slow march to the nomination develops -- this debate will likely be seen as the turning point, the moment when the man who’s thrown out every rulebook in politics finally learns that a few rules still apply. Or, more likely, no clear alternative rises from tonight’s pileup, as Trump continues his divide-and-conquer undoing of the modern Republican Party.” Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter: “The key issue post-debate isn’t what it means for Trump, it’s was there a clear ‘establishment’ lane winner? Don’t think there was.”
“Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd: “Trump is testing the limits of whether he can ever grow his support enough to be the conservative party's nominee … unless SC has changed, I think he hurt himself.”
-- Rubio had a good night:
The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes: “After last week's stumbles, Rubio probably needed the debate of his life this week. He got it.”
Max Boot: “In tonight's debate it was Trump vs. George W. Bush. Bush won. And best defense of him came from Rubio.”
Chris Cillizza: “Does Rubio still talk a little too fast and sound a little too rehearsed? Yes. But, he clearly helped himself."
-- Many were impressed by Bush:
National Review’s Rich Lowry: “Jeb stood up to Trump, just wish he had better rhetorical hammers than saying Trump is insulting his way to the nomination.”
Conservative Post blogger Jennifer Rubin: “My God, if this Jeb showed up day one he would have won by now.”
