Senator Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in a tight race in the Michigan primary, although Mrs. Clinton won Mississippi decisively.
The former secretary of state underperformed with black voters in Michigan, and trade has become a big issue. Clinton had done well in states that supported President Barack Obama's policies, whereas Sanders won those seeking a more fundamental break. Tonight may be a sign that there's still a groundswell of discontent in Michigan with Democratic political leadership.
Sanders had gambled big on Michigan, pouring resources and time in the expectation that the state would be receptive to his populist economic message and criticism of American free trade agreements. They were receptive. Here, Sanders may have found an issue where he can do real damage to Clinton as the campaign goes forward. Almost six in 10 Michigan Democratic primary voters said international trade takes away U.S. jobs, according to exit polling. Among that group Sanders won by roughly 20 percentage points over Clinton. That could -- and should -- bode well for his efforts in Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and other states where international trade has ravaged the economy.
This echoes the Republican side of the primary. More than half of voters thought that trade cost jobs; four in 10 of them backed Donald Trump.
Sanders was powered largely by his huge advantage among the white working-class voters and young voters who have been crucial to his coalition, according to initial exit polls.
Sanders's win in Michigan is good for him not just because he will pick up around half of the state's 130 delegates. It also suggests Sanders has a real shot at many of the delegate-rich states — like Ohio, Illinois, and Wisconsin — that lie ahead.
The Sanders win is particularly surprising because it so dramatically contradicted the polls, which almost uniformly had Clinton running far ahead of the Vermont senator in Michigan. Earlier in the night, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver said that a Sanders win in Vermont would "count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history."
Sanders threatens to prolong a Democratic campaign that Hillary Clinton appeared to have all but locked up last week. His victory in Michigan did not drastically alter Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead, as she won overwhelmingly in Mississippi, crushing Mr. Sanders among African-American voters.
If Trump wins Ohio and Florida next week, the GOP race will be effectively over.