May 3, 2016

INDIANA: TRUMP WINS BIG, SANDERS UPSETS CLINTON; CRUZ, KASICH DROP OUT. TRUMP THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE!






WASHINGTON POST


Donald Trump crushed the competition in Indiana's primary, sealing his stranglehold on the Republican nomination. Bernie Sanders eked out a win over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, a victory for the underdog but one that will do little to change his delegate deficit to the former secretary of state. Ted Cruz suspended his campaign.


Donald Trump: For the seventh time in the last 21 days, the real estate mogul dominated a primary race. His win in Indiana, like past victories in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and elsewhere, was complete -- spreading across virtually every demographic group. Because of the sweeping nature of that win, Trump was projected to win all 57 Indiana Republican delegates -- making his path to 1,237 delegates far easier. Ted Cruz's decision to leave the race following the Indiana result was a recognition that the math simply stopped adding up for anyone other than Trump after tonight.

Trump's victory is now complete. Beginning as a punchline -- and an asterisk in polling -- Trump beat the most crowded (and one of the deepest and most accomplished) Republican fields in modern presidential history. A first time candidate, he systematically dismantled Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Marco Rubio -- to name just a few.  And, even amid the relentless media coverage of whether Trump had peaked or whether his moment had passed, he led the race virtually wire to wire. He won in the midwest, the west, the south and the east. He won among very conservative voters and moderate voters. He won and won and won.
Trump starts the general election -- and it starts, effectively, on Wednesday -- as a decided underdog to Clinton. But, take nothing away from what Trump has accomplished in this Republican primary. It is, simply put, the single most amazing thing I have seen in my 18 years of covering politics.

Bernie Sanders: The Vermont senator needed a win in Indiana to fight back against the creeping narrative -- disappointing fundraising, staff layoffs -- that he was running out of time in this race. He got it. Which he deserves credit for. And, he won the groups -- young voters, white voters, liberals -- where he has shown considerable strength throughout the race. The Indiana win reinforces, again, that Sanders can -- and should -- stay in the race all the way through the June 7 votes.
But, as always, the math is the math.  Delegate projections suggest that Sanders will net three delegates out of Indiana, which is simply not enough for him to catch or even come close to catching Clinton.
Image from Bernie Sanders


Image from Bernie Sanders
Image from Bernie Sanders
Losers
Ted Cruz: The Texas Republican made Indiana a do or die state. And, he didn't "do." You could sense the desperation from Cruz and his senior campaign team in the run-up to the Indiana vote. From the announcement of an alliance with John Kasich, which quickly fizzled, to his decision to name Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential running mate, it seemed obvious that Cruz was literally throwing things at a wall in hopes one might stick.  None did.
Recognizing that he wasn't going to win, Cruz got out. His political future -- Cruz is only 45 years old -- weighed heavily on that calculation. Cruz wanted to preserve his status as a top tier candidate heading into the 2020 election (assuming Clinton beats Trump) and clearly believed that leaving the race as soon as Indiana voted was the right time.
Now the only question is when -- and if -- Cruz endorses Trump. That, too, will be entirely dependent on how Cruz thinks it will impact his positioning for 2020.

Hillary Clinton: Clinton is -- still -- going to be the Democratic presidential nominee. But, losing Indiana could well be the start of a bad run of states for Clinton -- Nebraska, Washington, Oregon are all coming up -- that will not allow her to finish the primary race in a final, dominating sprint.
And she will still have to deal with Sanders's attacks from the left even while having to counter the Trump fusillade that will be headed in her direction. That's a tough challenge and one the Clinton campaign would have very much liked to have avoided. Indiana ensured she won't get that wish.
* The Stop Trump effort: You can't beat someone with no one....While there was -- and is -- a not-insignificant group of Republicans who wanted to be for anyone other than Trump, Cruz was simply not an appealing enough alternative. Many Republicans are scared of what Trump might do as the GOP nominee. But they viscerally hate Cruz and simply could not bring themselves to be for him. Given that simple calculus, all of the efforts -- and money -- that went into stopping Trump never really had a chance at succeeding. That reality was driven home in a final, ringing way in Indiana on Tuesday.