August 6, 2016

THE WEEK THAT COULD END TRUMP'S CHANCES. (HAVEN'T WE BEEN HERE BEFORE?)



<em>Jacksonville.</em> (Photo by Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images)&nbsp;</p>



Trump continues his attacks, now on party leadership.



Donald Trump has refused to endorse Paul Ryan and John McCain, despite being endorsed for the presidency by both men. “I like Paul, but these are horrible times for our country. We need very, very strong leadership. And I’m just not quite there yet,” the Republican nominee said of the House speaker. Ryan’s campaign spokesman said: “Neither Speaker Ryan nor anyone on his team has ever asked for Donald Trump’s endorsement.” Earlier on Tuesday, Barack Obama called Trump “unfit” and “woefully unprepared” to be presidentand urged Republican leaders to denounce their nominee. The French president, François Hollande, also chipped in, saying the real estate magnate made people “want to retch”. Early on Wednesday morning, Trump denied reports of growing unhappiness within his campaign over erratic public conduct and missteps: “There is great unity in my campaign, perhaps greater than ever before,” he tweetedOn Tuesday, he also told a supporter to “get the baby out of here” after the infant in question began crying during a speech he was making. And in more than a dozen interviews at two Trump rallies this week, Trump supporters tell Ben Jacobs they either don’t know or don’t care about his recent comments criticizing the parents of a Muslim soldier killed in Iraq.



GOP reaches ‘new level of panic’ over Trump’s candidacy, from the Washington Post's Phillip Rucker, Dan Balz & Matea Gold
"Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus was described as “very frustrated” with and deeply disturbed by Trump’s behavior over the past week, having run out of excuses to make on the nominee’s behalf to donors and other party leaders, according to multiple people familiar with the events. Meanwhile, Trump’s top campaign advisers are struggling once again to instill discipline in their candidate.... “A new level of panic hit the street,” said longtime operative Scott Reed, chief strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “It’s time for a serious reset.”"
 The best polling news for Donald Trump on Thursday was that an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had him down only 9 points to Hillary Clinton.
That survey was released a little while after a poll from McClatchy/Marist that showed Trump down 15 points, pulling only 33 percent of the vote. Those numbers are, to put it bluntly, shocking. Mitt Romney was never down by that much to President Obama in 2012; his worst poll was a survey in June from Bloomberg that had him down 13, with 40 percent of the vote.

In only one of the four major polls released this week is Trump over 40 percent, which is itself remarkable. Each of the four had Clinton gaining ground since the last time the same outlet released a poll, by an average of about 5 points. Three of the four showed Trump losing ground, by a little more than 3 points.

The two new polls show a pattern that's consistent with other recent surveys, including at the state level. Clinton is getting more support from Democrats than Trump is from Republicans, and his advantage among men and white voters has diminished. In both of the new polls, Clinton leads with men, which has not been the trend over the course of this election....
Relative to Election Day in 2004, 2008 and 2012, Clinton's lead is more than twice that of the eventual victor at this point. In 2004, George W. Bush had a 6-point lead for a few weeks; in 2008, Barack Obama led by 6 points or more for the final month or so. Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton in the polling average by more than Mitt Romney ever did in the final 150 days. In fact, Romney never trailed by that much for the last year of the campaign.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, right, stands with his wife Melania on stage after introducing her during the Republican National Convention, Monday, July 18, 2016, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)


And then there was a Politico investigation into whether his wife, Melania Trump, violated immigration laws when she came to the United States from Slovenia in the '90s. This all came about after nude photos from her modeling past surfaced. (Melania Trump is now a U.S. citizen.)


Former CIA director Michael Morell (MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

The former head of the CIA endorsed Clinton: Former director Michael Morell broke his silence about national politics to say Clinton "is highly qualified to be commander in chief." He accused Trump of being "a threat to our national security" and of being an "unwitting agent" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump "may well pose a threat to our national security," Morell says.

Clinton has a lead in Georgia. Georgia!: A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has her with a slight lead over Trump, 44 to 40, in this traditionally deep-red state. (Though we caution: this is just one poll and her lead is within the margin of error.) But it's not inconceivable that in a wave election, Clinton could win in Georgia, writes Bump


Hillary Clinton, apparently no fan of Donald Trump ties. (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)
Apparently Hillary's no fan of Donald Trump ties. [They're not made in America] (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)


He got caught saying something untrue. Again.: That video Trump reportedly saw of U.S. officials handing Iranian officials $400 million? It doesn't exist. Trump repeated the claim even after his campaign said they knew it didn't exist. Then on Friday morning, Trump did something rare, writes Blake: He acknowledged his mistake.

What about Hillary Clinton?


MANCHESTER, NH - Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laughs with fellow women lawmakers at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire on Friday, February 5, 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)
Clinton is smartly staying out the way while Trump steals all the headlines.