The Democrats need to win 24 seats in the House and three in the Senate to take control of Congress next year. For many reasons — including the right’s success at mastering redistricting battles across the country — the party faces stiff head winds.
But Trump’s unpopularity gives Democrats hope that an intense rejection of his politics will overcome their structural disadvantages. Since 1966, when the incumbent president’s job approval has fallen below 50 percent, his party has lost an average of 40 House seats and five Senate seats in the midterms, according to Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, who put together a chart that illustrates the past bloodbaths. “Fifty percent has been the magic number,” he said.
Trump’s most recent approval rating in Gallup’s tracking poll: 37 percent.