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| The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, with what the C.I.A. calls “the disco ball.” The sphere is supposedly a nuclear weapon, shrunken to fit inside the nose cone of a missile.Korean Central News Agency, via European Pressphoto Agency |
Who is Kim Jong Un? -- “In China, the man threatening to fire missiles at the United States is often derided as a chubby brat,” the New York Times’s Choe Sang-Hun reports. “In the United States, a senator recently referred to him as ‘this crazy fat kid.’ But the target of all that scorn, Kim Jong-un … has long been underestimated. His ultimate motives, like many details of his life, are uncertain. Only a few people outside North Korea have been allowed to meet him, among them [Dennis Rodman and] a Japanese sushi chef … What little is known of Mr. Kim’s record suggests ruthlessness — and some ideological flexibility ... ‘Smart, pragmatic, decisive,’ Andrei Lankov, a North Korea [in Seoul], said of Mr. Kim. ‘But also capricious, moody and ready to kill easily.’”
He is prepared to push back against the United States and its allies to a point, many believe, but never enough to risk a war that would threaten his rule as the third-generation strongman in a family dynasty that took hold after World War II."
-- Meanwhile, the escalating crisis with North Korea has also underscored Trump’s failure to fill key posts in the region.
CNN’s Ryan Struyk reports: “A major Defense Department slot -- the Assistant Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs... Meanwhile, a key State Department position called the Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs is also without a nomination. The heads of the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance and the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation also remain un-nominated under Trump. And the Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs, essential to bridging the gap between the State and Defense Departments, has not been nominated under Trump despite being confirmed under both Bush and Obama by June. … And the crucial ambassadorship to South Korea also remains vacant[.] … It's currently filled by Marc Knapper, the previous No. 2 of the embassy.”
-- The New York Times’ Rick Gladstone presents one important question – if the U.S. attacks North Korea first, would it be considered self-defense?“Michael N. Schmitt, a professor at the United States Naval War College and an affiliate at the Harvard Law School … said three basic requirements must be met: The other country must have the ability to attack; the other country’s behavior must show that an attack is imminent; and there are no other ways to forestall it. While North Korea may have an ability to attack the United States, there is widespread skepticism that an attack is imminent. And many officials, including some of Mr. Trump’s senior aides, have said other options have not been exhausted. ‘I think that the answer to the question is fairly unequivocally ‘no,’’ said Kevin Jon Heller, a law professor at the University of London. ‘There’s no right of self-defense against a non-imminent threat.’”
-- “[Another] major consideration would be whether and when to evacuate American and other allied civilians, which is no small feat as Seoul [is a] city of about 10 million,” New York Times’s Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt report. “‘With all this talk, what I worry about is a serious miscalculation,’ said James D. Thurman, [the former top U.S.] commander in South Korea ... He estimated that at least a quarter-million Americans would have to be moved. If the United States was prepared to go beyond a limited strike, it could conduct a surprise attack on North Korea’s missile garrison and weapon storage areas … American officials, however, do not have high confidence that the military could find and destroy North Korea’s entire arsenal of long-range missiles and nuclear warheads … “
“‘I can’t underscore enough how unappealing all the military options are,' said Christine Wormuth, the Pentagon’s top policy official at the end of the Obama administration. ‘This wouldn’t end well.