Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court would give Republicans a win that lasts a generation – but it could hurt them in the Senate this year
- Kavanaugh's confirmation after a bruising fight over sexual misconduct allegations could make it less likely that the Senate will remain in Republican control.
- The fight over Kavanaugh's nomination has juiced Republican voters' emotional intensity. The challenge facing the GOP is preserving that excitement for the remaining month of the campaign.
Suddenly, the fierce battle over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court presents President Donald Trump and fellow Republicans with a peculiar conflict of incentives.
By confirming Kavanaugh, the Republican-controlled Senate cements the court majority conservatives have dreamed of. But that could also make it less likely that the Senate will remain in Republican control, strategists in both parties say.
That's a different political calculus than existed a month ago, before Christine Blasey Ford went public with her allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when they were teenagers. (Kavanaugh vehemently denies the allegations.) Then, when the Kavanaugh nomination fight was a traditional ideological clash, Republicans saw winning as the minimum necessary to preserve morale among conservatives' base in an otherwise dispiriting midterm election season.
Now, the politics of grievance has turned that around. The hearings last week, in which both Kavanaugh and defenders like Sen. Lindsey Graham raged against what they call character assassination, brought a new level of emotional intensity to the Republican campaign.
In recent days, pollsters have reported rising interest in the election among rank-and-file Republicans. That has narrowed the "enthusiasm gap" that all year has benefited Democrats outraged by the Trump presidency.
Emotional intensity produces voter turnout. The challenge facing Republicans is preserving it for the remaining four weeks of the campaign.
The confirmation of Kavanaugh may sap that intensity. Like politicians and the news media, voters have short attention spans.
The Kavanaugh confirmation appears insufficient to salvage the Republican majority in the House. The Cook Political Report now projects gains of 25-44 seats for Democrats, who need 23 to gain control. Many battleground House races take place in moderate suburban districts, where opposition to Trump among college-educated white women has given Democrats the upper hand.
The Senate battleground is far different. Needing to gain two seats for control, Democrats must defend vulnerable incumbents in Trump-friendly states such as North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Indiana and West Virginia. With most races close, an uptick in GOP turnout fueled by anger over Kavanaugh's fate could tip the balance. [Highly regarded political analyst Larry Sabato; In order to net the two additional seats they need to win the Senate, Democrats need to win 28 of 35 seats (80% of all the Senate races this year). That is an achievement a party has only accomplished twice in the history of Senate popular elections (since 1913): 1932 and 1964,]