Why Mexico isn’t stopping the migrant caravan.

Honduran migrants wait on a bridge over the Suchiate River, connecting Guatemala and Mexico, in Tecun Uman, Guatemala, on Monday. (Oliver De Ros/AP)

WASHINGTON POST

 As thousands of Central American migrants continue their long walk to the U.S. border, prompting daily condemnations from President Trump, the Mexican government has had to decide: Are Trump’s threats enough to trigger an intervention?

For now, Mexican police have merely stepped aside as the caravan has passed, watching first as migrants took rafts across the river that separates the country from Guatemala, and then as they continued by foot along the main highway, chanting, “Si, se pudo!” or “Yes, we could!”

That response appears to have been conveyed to the White House, and now, once again, Mexico’s most important bilateral relationship appears to be on shaky ground.

“Sadly, it looks like Mexico’s Police and Military are unable to stop the Caravan heading to the Southern Border of the United States,” Trump tweeted. He later said on Fox News, “I don’t know what’s going on with Mexico. It looks like the people are walking right through the middle of Mexico. So I’m not exactly thrilled there either!”

The caravan has marked another chapter in Mexico’s complicated effort to balance threats from the United States with the country’s own domestic politics. Detaining or deporting the caravan’s members would certainly please Trump, but it would flout Mexican immigration laws and further the impression that the government is taking orders from a hostile White House.

So far, the Mexican police appear to be conscious of that tension and the perception of their presence. Riot police have stopped to pose for pictures in their gear, as if ready to combat the migrants, letting international television crews film them before retreating.

The caravan risks a wider confrontation with Washington if Trump threatens to cut off aid to Mexico, as he has threatened to do in Central America, or attempts to seal the border with the U.S. military. Every day, billions of dollars in trade crosses the U.S.-Mexico border, and any attempt to block those flows could inflict serious economic harm on Mexico. The newly renegotiated North American trade agreement hangs in the balance as it has yet to be ratified by lawmakers.

The Mexican government’s dilemma is worsened by the fact that the incoming government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador campaigned on a gentler approach to migration, saying it would not hunt down migrants as if they were criminals.

The Mexican government’s dilemma is worsened by the fact that the incoming government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador campaigned on a gentler approach to migration, saying it would not hunt down migrants as if they were criminals.

“You have Trump’s government pressing Mr. Peña Nieto’s government to deter or stop the flows, but on the other hand, you have the pressure of public opinion and the new government saying you should treat the newcomers with dignity,” said Daniel Millan, a former spokesman in President Enrique Peña Nieto’s government who is now a political consultant. “They are walking a tightrope.”

Honduran migrants cross the Suchiate River, the natural border between Guatemala and Mexico, on makeshift rafts Monday. (Orlando Sierra/AFP/Getty Images)

Mexico’s incoming foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said Monday on Mexican radio that it would be a “big mistake” for the Mexican government to use its armed forces to try to stop the caravan.

After a meeting Monday with Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland in Ottawa, he added that his administration would offer more work visas for Central Americans. “We are going to invest in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador,” he said.

After a meeting Monday with Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland in Ottawa, he added that his administration would offer more work visas for Central Americans. “We are going to invest in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador,” he said.

Peña Nieto addressed the caravan on Friday when he said, “Mexico does not allow people to enter our territory illegally and much less so violently.”

Mexico is by no means lax on undocumented Central American migrants. Last year, according to the Interior Ministry, Mexico deported 82,000 migrants from the region. It’s possible that, at any moment, the government could decide to take a harsher stance with the migrant caravan.

Central American migrants walk along the highway in Tapachula, Mexico, near the border with Guatemala. (Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters)

On Sunday, Trump had tweeted: “People have to apply for asylum in Mexico first, and if they fail to do that, the U.S. will turn them away.”

Indeed, Mexican authorities have repeatedly encouraged the Central American migrants to apply for legal status here, but it was unclear what that status would yield: asylum in Mexico, a temporary visa that would allow enough time for migrants to traverse the country, or something else. Several hundred members of the caravan have agreed to be processed legally, and over the weekend they were taken to a shelter in southern Mexico, which is currently closed to journalists.

On Monday morning, organizers of the caravan expressed skepticism toward Mexican immigration authorities.

“Humanitarian assistance has been predicated on detention,” said Irineo Mujica, the director of Pueblo Sin Fronteras.