March 19, 2020



NYC Hospitals Lack Beds For Expected Coronavirus Cases

Manhattan hospitals may be overwhelmed with patients even if measures to slow the spread of coronavirus are successful.

By Brendan Krisel, Patch Staff
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Manhattan hospitals will be flooded with coronavirus patients under even conservative estimates of the virus' spread.
NEW YORK CITY — Manhattan's hospitals would be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients even in the most conservative of possible scenarios for infection rates if hospital capacity is not vastly increased, according to a ProPublica report based on data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The ProPublica report analyzes how Manhattan's hospital capacity holds up under three distinct scenarios: A best-case scenario of 20% infection rate, a moderate estimate of 40% infection rate and a worst-case estimate of 60% infection rate.

In all three scenarios, there will be a greater number of coronavirus patients than Manhattan hospital beds, according to the report.

ProPublica's report underscores the need to "flatten the curve" of the virus' spread. When infections are spread out over a longer amount of time, hospitals will have fewer patients to treat at any one time, according to the report.

The report didn't give data for Kings, Queens or Richmond counties. ProPublica's study revealed that hospital capacity in the Bronx is also lacking for even the best-case scenario for coronavirus' spread.

New York City and State officials have stressed the need for social distancing in an effort to slow infection, going as far as to shutter venues such as bars and movie theaters and by closing New York City public schools. Hospitals are also implementing measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus. Mount Sinai Hospital is barring most visitors from its facilities and New York City has canceled all elective surgeries.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the city reached 923 on Wednesday morning and numbers will undoubtedly rise past 1,000 over the next day, Mayor Bill de Blasiosaid on NBC's Today Show. Of those cases, 10 have been fatal, the mayor said.

On Monday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued an executive order giving the state powers to increase hospital capacity with the goal of creating 9,000 additional beds across the state by giving the national guard, building unions and private developers the ability to identify sites to be retrofitted as hospitals.

"I don't believe we're going to be able to flatten the curve enough to meet the capacity of the healthcare system. So, this business, plan ahead. Plan forward. Anticipate what's coming down the road and get ready for it," Cuomo said during a Monday briefing.

As of March 17, 264 people were hospitalized in the state. The expected peak for infection is expected to come in about 45 days and the state will need between 55,000 and 110,000 hospital beds, Cuomo said.

On Tuesday, Cuomo described the current curve of the spread of coronavirus in New York as "a wave" that is going to "crash on the hospital system."

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, Manhattan had 14,800 total hospital beds, of which about 79% were occupied, potentially leaving only 3,060 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 1,430 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

Manhattan has a population of about 5.2 million residents; 14% are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Manhattan would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8% of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40% of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Manhattan would receive an estimated 345,000 coronavirus patients.

The influx of patients would require 11,500 beds over 12 months, which is 3.8 times times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In Manhattan, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 620 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 4 times times less than what is expected to be needed to care for all severe cases.

The Bronx doesn't fare much better, according to ProPublica's study.

As of 2018 the Bronx had 4,010 total hospital beds, of which about 80% were occupied, potentially leaving only 810 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 280 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica's full story and specifics about hospitals in your area.