Over the past two months, former vice president Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polling of the upcoming presidential contest has nearly doubled. It’s a period that has overlapped with a number of major shifts in the country and in the national mood, including the ongoing — and now resurging — coronavirus pandemic and widespread protests focused on racial equality. So it doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to assume that perhaps those two things are correlated.
There are two changes since April that hint at this change in an obvious way. The most obvious is that Pew has Biden’s lead over Trump improving from two points that month to 10 now. Biden is now supported by 54 percent of the country, according to Pew, compared with Trump’s 44 percent.
At the same time, satisfaction with the direction of the country has collapsed. That month, 31 percent felt satisfied with how things are going in the country compared with 68 percent who said they were dissatisfied, a net minus-37 view of the nation. That gap has grown to minus-75 points, thanks largely to a collapse in satisfaction among Republicans. Only about a fifth of Republicans still express satisfaction about how things are going.