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Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes
It's hard to believe that the hole President Trump dug for himself could get deeper, but it has.
A record and widening majority of Americans disapprove of the job he's doing when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic; he gets poor scores on race relations; he's seen a suburban erosion despite efforts to win over suburban voters with fear; and all that has led to a worsened outlook for Trump against Democrat Joe Biden in the presidential election.
It's hard to believe that the hole President Trump dug for himself could get deeper, but it has.
A record and widening majority of Americans disapprove of the job he's doing when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic; he gets poor scores on race relations; he's seen a suburban erosion despite efforts to win over suburban voters with fear; and all that has led to a worsened outlook for Trump against Democrat Joe Biden in the presidential election.
As a result, in the past month and a half, the latest NPR analysis of the Electoral College has several states shifting in Biden's favor, and he now has a 297-170 advantage over Trump with exactly three months to go until Election Day.
Here are our changes:
Colorado from lean Democratic to likely Democratic
Florida from toss-up to lean Democratic
New Hampshire from toss-up to lean Democratic
Nevada from toss-up to lean Democratic
Pennsylvania from toss-up to lean Democratic
Georgia from lean Republican to toss-up
(Read more about our methodology and see the previous map here.)
If all of the states leaning in Biden's direction currently wind up going his way this fall, he would secure more than enough electoral votes to win the presidency.
Consider, for example, if Biden were to lose Florida, his total would drop to 268 votes, two short of the majority needed.
The Trump campaign believes its strength is being understated in polls, and polls have shown that, even in places Biden is ahead, voters think Trump will do better than surveys currently show.
The Biden campaign also expects the race to tighten, especially if Trump is seen to be doing even marginally better in handling the coronavirus as the fall approaches.
But right now, in order for the president to win reelection, he is going to have to win all of the current toss-ups and make inroads in places that are leaning Biden's direction. That's not unheard of. Trump did the same thing in 2016.
NPR's latest analysis of the Electoral College map shows a continued shift in former Vice President Joe Biden's favor over President Trump.
NPRYouTube
Why we made these moves:
Colorado (9 electoral votes, lean Democratic to likely Democratic): This state has moved more sharply in Biden's direction as the coronavirus has become full-blown nationally. Biden's polling advantage has increased 12 percentage points, giving him an average lead of 53% to 39%.
Florida (29, toss-up to lean Democratic): This was the biggest and most difficult move to make given Florida's history of being one of the closest states in recent presidential elections, as well as going against the Democratic wave in 2018 by electing a Republican governor and senator. But it's just hard to ignore that Biden has gone from a 49% to 48% polling advantage in early February to 50% to 44%, with some reputable surveys showing Biden with a double-digit lead. This is one state we expect to snap back to toss-up, but right now it's leaning in Biden's direction.
New Hampshire (4, toss-up to lean Democratic): Even though this was the closest state in 2016 by raw votes, Hillary Clinton won it. Democrats have had success here up and down the ballot, and Biden now leads the state by 10 points on average. There hasn't been much polling in New Hampshire, so we will continue to watch if it tightens, but the best example of movement came from the University of New Hampshire poll. In May, Biden was up narrowly, 46% to 44%. In mid-July, his lead ballooned to 53% to 40%.
Nevada (6, toss-up to lean Democratic): While Nevada was close in 2016, Biden's advantage has remained steady, Democrats have had a lot of success there in recent elections, and they have a battle-tested ground game.
Pennsylvania (20, toss-up to lean Democratic): It's a similar story to Florida in terms of polling. Biden had a narrow 48% to 45% lead in an average of the polls at the end of February. Now, Biden is ahead 50% to 43%. Being at 50% in so many places is significant. This also had been a traditionally Democratic state, Biden's campaign is headquartered there, and he's been campaigning there in person. Again, this is one that could move back to toss-up, but for now, it's leaning toward the Democratic candidate.
Georgia (16, lean Republican to toss-up): If you had to bet, this one probably still tips in Trump's direction on Election Day, but for months the polls have been tight, tight, tight. Republicans have continued to win statewide office after statewide office, but the demographic trends continue to move in Democrats' favor.
Other states and factors to watch:
Maine, 2nd Congressional District: Biden's lead has expanded in Maine overall, but in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, where Trump won in 2016, a Colby poll had Biden ahead only 45% to 42%.
North Carolina: It also remains in the toss-up category. Biden has a narrow polling advantage, but an NBC/Marist poll raised eyebrows last week when it showed Biden with a 7-point lead and over the 50% threshold: 51% to 44%. We'll watch to see whether that's the beginning of a trend or an outlier.
Ohio: There's an argument for putting Ohio in the toss-up category, strictly based on the closeness of polling. But this is a state Trump should win based on demographic and voting trends. If Ohio is really close on election night, it likely means a sizable Biden victory overall. The Biden campaign started spending on TV ads in Ohio for the first time last week.
Iowa: This is another state Trump should win, but one where his advantage has declined. The state's demographics — being almost all white — still favor the president.
Texas: This traditionally Republican state didn't go as strongly for Trump in 2016 as it had for past Republicans, and current polling indicates a toss-up. But Biden hasn't gotten to 50% in a poll in the state yet. If he did, it would be a real eye-opener. On the ground, Republicans still retain an advantage in voter mobilization.
For more on our methodology, which is based on a mix of public surveys, conversations with the campaigns, historical voting and demographic trends, and our on-the-ground reporting, as well as detailed paths to election for both candidates, click here.
Inside 100 Days To The Presidential Election, 9 Things That Could Change The Race
Supporters of President Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, talk in Kansas City, Mo.
Kyle Rivas/Getty Images
With less than 100 days until Election Day, here's where things stand:
Joe Biden has the clear advantage — for now. With a majority of Americans disapproving of the way President Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic, Biden has jumped to an 8-point lead in an average of the national polls. That's double what his advantage was at the end of February, and the presumptive Democratic nominee is at or near 50% in many surveys. Problematically for the president, the coronavirus isn't going away and that threatens his prospects heading into the fall.
But Biden's advantage in those national surveys has come largely from a drop in Trump's support rather than a big increase in the percentage of people saying they would vote for Biden. The Biden campaign has been saying for months during this surge that it expects the race to tighten, and no one should be surprised if it does.
That said, Biden has seen his lead grow in key states. Looking at 15 targeted states, Biden has increased his advantage by an average of about 4.5 points:
Colorado: +12 Biden gain (from Biden +3 to +15)
Wisconsin: +8 (from Trump +1 to Biden +7)
Arizona: +7 (from Trump +4 to Biden +3)
Minnesota: +6 (from Biden +5 to +11)
New Hampshire: +5 (from Biden +2 to +7)
Michigan: +5 (from Biden +3 to +8)
Florida: +5 (from Biden +2 to +7)
Virginia: +5 (from Biden +5 to +10)
Pennsylvania: +4 (from Biden +3 to +7)
Texas: +4 (from Trump +4 to even)
Iowa: +4 (from Trump +4 to even)
Nevada: +2 (from Biden +5 to +7).
Over the past several months, Biden has gained in almost all competitive presidential states.
But if we're talking about places like Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Texas and Arizona being competitive, that's a problem for Trump. We're not talking about Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada as potential expansion states for Trump.
Just look at where the Trump campaign is spending on TV ads — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa and Florida, according to Advertising Analytics, which tracks campaign ad spending.
But a lot can happen between now and November. Here are nine things to keep an eye on that can change the dynamics of the race:
1. Coronavirus: Trump's handling of the pandemic has hurt him badly politically. Can he win back some of those right-leaning independents who might be open to his message if they see him as even marginally handling it better?
2. School reopenings are right around the corner. If there's one thing suburban voters care about it's their kids and schools. And teachers unions are a key Democratic voting bloc.
3. The economy: With states tentatively reopened, local economies are still struggling. Congress is haggling over a fifth relief package with a GOP bill expected Monday, but people won't truly get back on their feet until the economy is fully back up and running. And that's unlikely to happen until there's a widely distributed vaccine, which is unlikely to happen until 2021 at the earliest.
4. Biden's VP pick: Trump has seen advantages over Biden on enthusiasm with his base, and many on the left are waiting to see which woman makes it onto Biden's ticket.
5. The conventions: This is the first time the conventions will be mostly virtual. In most past elections, one or both candidates got a "convention bounce." How will that manifest in this age of the coronavirus and virtual conventions?
6. The debates: The debates in 2016 didn't seem to matter. Polls and focus groups showed Hillary Clinton won them, but they certainly can be detrimental to a candidate if he or she does something glaringly bad that breaks through.
7. Fundraising: The Biden campaign struggled to raise money during the primaries; that isn't the case anymore. And the Trump campaign looks less like the juggernaut it had been, as it struggles to keep donors enthused. Canceling the convention last minute after moving it to Florida it has rankled some well-coiffed feathers. That's especially problematic for the Trump campaign, as it likely will have to spend money in states that are usually pretty red.
8. Candidates' health: Trump and Biden are the two oldest candidates to stand for election with a combined age of 151. And both have taken shots at the other's mental and physical fitness. Both are relatively healthy for their age, but what if that changes either way?
9. Potential surprises: Election dynamics can change right up until Election Day. In 2016, the Trump Access Hollywood tape came out a month before Election Day. And former FBI Director James Comey wrote a letter to Congress less than a couple of weeks before Election Day, saying he was reopening the investigation into Clinton's email server — only to say two days before the election that it would not be charging Clinton after reviewing the emails. There have been lots of "October surprises" that have threatened to imperil candidates.
With no bigger wildcard than Trump, we should all be prepared for the unexpected.
For more on our methodology, which is based on a mix of public surveys, conversations with the campaigns, historical voting and demographic trends, and our on-the-ground reporting, as well as detailed paths to election for both candidates, click here.