On Tuesday, New York will vote overwhelmingly for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. A Republican hasn’t won the state since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984 and Trump, a son of Queens largely reviled in the place where he grew up, isn’t going to break that trend.
Down the ballot, however, there could be drama. Several Congressional races in the suburbs of New York City—and one within the five boroughs—can be won by either party’s candidate. Upstate, a handful of seats are in play too, as Democrats seek to benefit from a massive turnout surge. Beyond Congress, though, is the real contest that could determine the future of our imperiled city and the state as a whole: the battle for control of the State Senate.
Control, on its own, is not at stake. After Democrats stormed to the majority in the 2018 midterms, they now hold an unbreakable 40-23 advantage over Republicans in the upper chamber. The real fight is over whether Democrats can net two more seats and form what would be the first supermajority in modern political history, able to override vetoes from Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Why does this matter? Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, Cuomo has exerted inordinate power over the legislature, winning new budgetary powers and withholding funds from state agencies, public schools, and universities. As New York’s economy freefalls, Cuomo has held out hope that Republicans in Congress and President Donald Trump would send tens of billions of dollars in local aid to the state.
This has not happened. If Joe Biden wins and Democrats take control of the Senate, a bailout may not materialize before next year. In the interim, local governments are reeling and private businesses are shutting down. Democrats in the legislature have hoped to raise new revenue through tax increases on the wealthy; Cuomo, fearful rich residents could flee the state, has rejected all calls for new taxes.
If Democrats win a supermajority in the State Senate, the first priority, lawmakers say, will be forcing Cuomo’s hand on raising taxes. There are a host of proposals on the table, including taxes for multimillionaires, novel wealth taxes, a stock transfer tax, or a tax on second, largely vacant, homes.
“The leaders of both legislative houses are clear that the Senate and Assembly support requiring the wealthiest to pay more to help solve our budget crisis,” said State Senator Michal Gianaris, the deputy leader of the chamber. “A Senate supermajority will increase our negotiating power to make that vision a reality.”
If Democrats net two more seats—or even more—it will be far more difficult for Cuomo to reject a bill raising taxes on the wealthy, since Republican lawmakers would no longer be needed to override a veto. Conversely, for Republicans and maybe even a Democrat-skeptical Cuomo, the loss of such leverage would spell doom for any hope of conservative power in government.
Democrats have many paths to a supermajority. A wave of retirements by longtime Republican senators has opened up new terrain, particularly in districts that Hillary Clinton won four years ago.
While Trump at the top of the ticket can drive Republican turnout, there are many more registered Democrats in New York, and hatred of Trump will likely bring them to the polls. A historic turnout spike could damage Republicans up and down the state.
“Democrats are mostly competing to win seats that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, but have been represented by longtime Republican incumbents now abandoning ship,” said Benjamin Rosenblatt, a Democratic consultant. “The national environment is undoubtedly favoring Democrats right now.”
If Democrats perform well enough on Election Day, they can also have total control of the decennial redistricting process, redrawing Senate districts that had been traditionally shaped to protect Republican incumbents.
For Republicans, there is hope that millions in outside expenditures from Ronald Lauder, a billionaire ally of Cuomo, and the Police Benevolent Association could tip the scales back their way. Both the PBA and Lauder, who is funding an independent expenditure committee called Safe Together New York, have attacked Democratic state senators and candidates in swing states for supporting bail and criminal justice reform laws they say have fueled a spike in murders and shootings. (There is no evidence of any direct link.)