Biden’s Declining Approval Rating Is Not Just About Afghanistan
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES
In the past few weeks, President Biden’s job approval rating has dropped precipitously while his disapproval rating has risen sharply amid concerns surrounding the delta variant of the coronavirus, the associated economic fallout from the pandemic and the ongoing withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.
Just how much have things changed for Biden? A month ago, his approval rating stood at 52.7 percent and his disapproval rating sat at 42.7 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, for a net approval rating of +10.0 percentage points. But as of Thursday,1 his approval rating stood at 47.1 percent and his disapproval rating at 47.0 percent, for a net approval rating of +0.1 points.
In an era of deep political polarization where we rarely see big shifts in public opinion of presidents, this counts as a pretty big swing.
There seem to be two separate events driving this rapid decline. First, Biden’s approval rating fell 2.5 points from July 26 to Aug. 5 as the delta variant surged. This slide is reflected in Biden’s overall handling of COVID-19, too. His approval rating on that issue fell about 3 points, from about 60 percent to 57 percent, after hovering in the low 60s for much of his presidency. And it’s continued to tick down from there:
Then things fell apart in Afghanistan just weeks before the last remaining U.S. troops were scheduled to leave the country. On Aug. 15, the U.S.-backed government completed its collapse and the Taliban fully returned to power after being pushed out by U.S.-led military forces in 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Initially, Americans overwhelmingly supported Biden’s decision in April to withdraw the remaining U.S. military forces from the country. Even now, there are more in favor of leaving than staying, but most Americans think Biden has handled the withdrawal poorly. Last weekend, a CBS News/YouGov survey found that about 3 in 4 Americans felt the withdrawal was going “very” or “somewhat badly,” while a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday found that 62 percent disapproved of how the Biden administration has handled the withdrawal.
It’s unclear whether the circumstances in Afghanistan are entirely responsible for the roughly 3-point decline in Biden’s approval rating since Aug. 5, given the continued prevalence of the delta variant in the U.S. Moreover, as I wrote earlier in August, some of Biden’s dip in approval could be related to growing economic concerns and a souring among some independent voters. That said, there’s no question that at least part of Biden’s decline in approval has been fueled by what’s happened in Afghanistan. And it could fall even more. A pair of suicide bombers killed at least 60 Afghans and 12 American troops outside the Kabul airport yesterday, an attack that ISIS-K claimed responsibility for and which could further sour American public opinion on Biden’s handling of the withdrawal.