The former president’s statehouse picks have fallen short as GOP voters weigh other factors; ‘I usually listen to who Trump backs, but I’m not bound by it’
WASHINGTON—Former President Donald Trump’s stature as GOP kingmaker has been dented in the past week, as some candidates he backed in major Republican primaries—particularly for governor—lost their bids.
Republican voters and strategists said Mr. Trump’s involvement in races will be important going forward, but consultants say the traditional tenets of successful candidates such as likability, perceived electability, records and background have proved as important as ever.
That has been especially true in governor races, where officials have direct impact over things like budgets and law enforcement.
In Georgia on Tuesday night, Gov. Brian Kemp decisively won his primary against the former president’s candidate, former Sen. David Perdue. Last week in Idaho, Mr. Trump’s candidate, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, lost her challenge to Gov. Brad Little. A week before that, Charles Herbster, the Trump-backed businessman who ran for governor in Nebraska and faced allegations of groping women, lost to University of Nebraska official Jim Pillen. Mr. Herbster denied the allegations; Mr. Trump told voters to overlook them.
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Georgia’s governor race was perhaps the marquee primary test given it was the center of the president’s false 2020 election fraud claims that he says will boost turnout for Republicans this fall. He repeatedly attacked Mr. Kemp, calling him weak for not trying to overturn President Biden’s win there.
Most primary voters felt differently, as Mr. Kemp beat Mr. Perdue by more than 50 percentage points.
Kemp supporter Jeff Vann, a 63-year-old accountant, said he voted for the governor largely because of how he handled the economy during the pandemic.
Mr. Vann wasn’t as eager to support Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger—another target of Mr. Trump’s 2020 election ire—but he still voted for him over Rep. Jody Hice (R., Ga.), the Trump-backed candidate. Mr. Raffensperger won that race Tuesday night, according to AP, avoiding a runoff.
“I usually listen to who Trump backs, but I’m not bound by it,” Mr. Vann said, standing outside the Baptist church in Oconee County where he voted. Oconee County is a rural area near Athens, Ga., home of the University of Georgia.
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Mr. Trump stayed out of contested governor’s races this month in Ohio and Alabama, where incumbents Mike DeWine and Kay Ivey, respectively, easily beat back challenges from pro-Trump candidates and criticisms they were ineffective fighters against Mr. Biden’s agenda. Ms. Ivey dispatched several primary rivals in Alabama including Lynda Blanchard, a U.S. ambassador to Slovenia during the Trump administration. The Wall Street Journal previously reported, citing Mr. Trump’s advisers, that he met with Ms. Blanchard and discussed a possible endorsement if she challenged Ms. Ivey.
Greg Hethcox, a Republican voter from Oxford, Ala., said even if Mr. Trump had made an endorsement, it would have been a directional signal at most—not a deciding factor.
“I don’t need him to make my choice for me,” said Mr. Hethcox, who is 72 and retired from human resources. In an interview ahead of the primary he said he was supporting construction businessman Tim James because he wanted fresh blood in the governor’s mansion and liked Mr. James’s campaign speeches about Christian values.
“I mean, I supported Trump. I supported him 100%. I would support him if he ran tomorrow,” Mr. Hethcox said. “But this is, you know, a decision that I have to make on my own.”
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Mr. Trump posted Wednesday on his social media platform, TruthSocial: “A very big and successful evening of political Endorsements.” He pointed to a slate of wins for his candidates in states like Arkansas, where Sarah Huckabee Sanders won the GOP nomination for governor, and elsewhere in Georgia. Herschel Walker, the former football star, was hand-selected by Mr. Trump in Georgia’s GOP Senate primary and easily captured it Tuesday night.
Mr. Trump didn’t mention Mr. Perdue’s loss, but wrote in the social media post that some races where he had made an endorsement “were not possible to win.”
In an April interview with the Journal, Mr. Trump said: “It’s always tough to beat an incumbent governor.”
Going forward some Republicans question how much impact Mr. Trump can have in governor’s races. Another test looms Aug. 2 in Michigan, where there is a competitive GOP primary race to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer this fall. John Sellek, a longtime Republican aide in Lansing who is now a political consultant, said the will-he-or-won’t-he nature of a Trump endorsement can be a distraction from the race. “It has been incredibly well noticed that he has been hesitant to endorse in the governor’s race,” Mr. Sellek said.
Democrats say Mr. Trump’s activity in primaries—and his emphasis on relitigating the 2020 election—has had a potentially helpful effect for their party by keeping some candidates on the sidelines. Republican Governors Doug Ducey of Arizona and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire sparred with Trump over election fraud claims and other issues and declined to make Senate bids, potentially hurting the GOP’s chances in those seats. Both New Hampshire and Arizona are, along with Georgia, home of some of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats.
Another Trump foe, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, also resisted entreaties from GOP leaders to run for Senate.
“I think that Trump’s involvement has undermined the Republicans ability to have solid, credible Senate candidates this cycle,” said JB Poersch, who runs the Democratic Senate Majority PAC that focuses on keeping the Democrats’ majority in the chamber.
In Senate and House races, Mr. Trump’s record is much better, but not perfect. Pennsylvania’s hotly contested primary remains too close to call and is now headed for a recount. The leading candidates were celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who got a clear boost in the polls after receiving Mr. Trump’s endorsement, and hedge-fund manager Dave McCormick.
“Trump did most of his endorsements for either vengeance or fame and celebrity,” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant in Pennsylvania.
The primaries showed those two factors aren’t sure-fired winners, said Mr. Nicholas, who polled the race but wasn’t affiliated with either candidate. He said that Mr. McCormick had a better favorable rating than Mr. Oz, helping him with late deciders.
“I don’t think Republican primary voters walk around thinking about whether this is a race that will help Trump or not,” he said. “They go through deciding on their usual issues: do they like the candidate? Do they think they can win? Do they line up with their issues?”
Even when the endorsements do seem to have an effect, as it did in Ohio where author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance won in a crowded—and competitive—race after a late Trump endorsement, they have infuriated some local activists in the party.
Several Ohio Republican leaders wrote to Mr. Trump to not make an endorsement after NBC News reported that Mr. Trump was on the verge of backing Mr. Vance. Greg Simpson, the chairman of the Clermont County Republican Party in Ohio, was one such signee.
“Let us make up our own mind,” Mr. Simpson said in an interview. “How would Trump know what works for me in my district here?” He noted that after the endorsement of Mr. Vance, the former president called him “JD Mandel,” mixing up his name with Josh Mandel, the former state treasurer who also ran in the primary. “That kind of told me that he doesn’t even know who he’s endorsing,” he said.
Mr. Simpson said he voted for Mr. Trump twice but likely wouldn’t do so again if he runs in 2024, saying he wanted Mr. Trump to stick to fundraising with only the occasional endorsement.
Mr. Trump backed Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina’s competitive Senate primary, which Mr. Budd won by a wide margin last week. Mr. Trump’s endorsement also buoyed Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, where he challenged fellow Republican Rep. David McKinley after the state lost a congressional seat in the once-a-decade reapportionment of House districts.
Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a Washington, D.C.-based group, said internal polling showed the Trump endorsement did energize Mr. Trump’s most loyal supporters for Mr. Mooney.
Her advice to candidates after seeing Mr. Trump’s mixed endorsement record? Worry about it less.
“If Trump endorses you, he does; if he doesn’t, he doesn’t,” she said. “Just run on who you are and it’ll hopefully be fine.”
Cameron McWhirter in Athens, Ga., and Alex Leary contributed to this article.