What we learned from the 2022 primaries

 

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The primary election season effectively ended Tuesday. As the US moves into midterm season, it’s unclear which party has the advantage. [USA Today / David Jackson] The incumbent party typically loses congressional seats during midterms, but the US Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and growing threats to democracy have boosted Democrats in recent polling. [New York Times / Jonathan Weisman] Still, the GOP is favored to win the House, while Democrats may narrowly keep the Senate. [FiveThirtyEight] On the Senate side, the GOP is struggling with candidate quality, having nominated a number of far-right election deniers and inexperienced candidates over establishment figures. [Washington Post / Colby Itkowitz and David Weigel] Investigations into former President Donald Trump could weaken the GOP’s support with independent voters. [CBS News / Ed O’Keefe, Aaron Navarro, and Rebecca Kaplan] It’s too early for Democrats to celebrate, however. Adverse developments in the economy or inaccuracies in polling could hand the GOP a larger-than-expected victory. [Vox / Andrew Prokop]