9 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic

What symptoms are most common, which groups are most at risk, and more.

By Dylan Matthews

VOX

The outbreak of Covid-19, a coronavirus-caused illness that originated in Wuhan, China, and has since spread to most of the world, is one of the most serious public health crises in decades. It has spread far wider than Ebola did in 2014, and the World Health Organization has designated it a pandemic. Johns Hopkins’s tracker is worth bookmarking with case number counts in the US and worldwide as the crisis progresses.

The situation on the ground is evolving incredibly quickly, and it’s impossible to synthesize everything we know into clean, intelligible charts. But we do know a fair bit about how bad the outbreak is, what the disease does, and what controlling and ultimately ending the outbreak will look like.

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With that in mind, here are nine charts that help explain the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis.

1) The virus is spreading rapidly

Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie/Our World in Data

The Covid-19 caseload has risen rapidly day to day, but here’s where things stood as of March 13. Many of the reported cases are still from the earlier peak in China. But while the number of new cases in China has fallen, the number of new international cases is rising, indicating that the epicenter of the problem has shifted from China to new places like Europe and the United States.

Note that the huge spike in new cases was due to improved data reporting from China; there was not one particularly bad day in the middle of February.

2) Know the symptoms

Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie/Our World in Data

The symptoms of Covid-19 vary from case to case, but the most common ones in China, from February data, are fever and dry cough (which are each seen in a majority of cases), fatigue, and sputum (the technical term for thick mucus coughed up from the respiratory tract).

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If you have a fever and dry cough, that could be a good reason to contact a health professional and get yourself tested if possible.

3) Death rates in China have declined over time

WHO

One glimmer of hope in this story is that Chinese medical authorities appeared to get better at treating infections and preventing death as the outbreak proceeded. “Even the first and hardest-hit province, Hubei, saw its death rate tumble as public health measures were strengthened and clinicians got better at identifying and treating people with the disease,” Vox’s Julia Belluz explains.

The rate didn’t go down on its own; China took drastic, even authoritarian measures to lock down affected areas and contain the virus’s spread so that the medical system was not overwhelmed.

4) Older people in China have been at the greatest risk of dying from Covid-19

Christina Animashaun/Vox

The Spanish flu of 1918-’19, the most horrific pandemic in modern times, focused mainly on the young. It had biological similarities to a flu pandemic in the 1830s that gave some older people in the 1910s limited immunity.

Covid-19 is not like that. So far, deaths in China have been concentrated among older adults, who have weaker immune systems on average than younger people and have a higher rate of chronic illness. People of all ages with chronic medical conditions are also at higher risk. The risk of death is real for younger people as well, but older people are most at risk.

5) This is much more severe than an ordinary flu

Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie/Our World in Data

It is tempting to compare Covid-19 to a more familiar disease: the seasonal flu. After all, the flu also has mild symptoms for most people, and can be dangerous and lethal among vulnerable populations like the elderly. President Trump even made this comparison recently.

But as the case fatality data shows, there’s no real comparison. About 6 percent of people 60 or older infected with Covid-19 die, according to the data from China we have so far; that’s over six times the fatality rate in the US for older people infected with the flu. The overall Covid-19 fatality rate may be 12 to 24 times the flu death rate. (Estimates for the fatality rate for Covid-19 vary, and they vary by region depending on response to the outbreak.)

6) Experts also think Covid-19 is more contagious than the ordinary flu

Javier Zarracina and Christina Animashaun/Vox

There’s another way that Covid-19 is a tougher adversary than the seasonal flu: Its R0 (“R nought”) is over 2, indicating that it’s more contagious than the typical flu. R0 estimates the number of people an average infected person spreads the disease to. “R0 is important because if it’s greater than 1, the infection will probably keep spreading, and if it’s less than 1, the outbreak will likely peter out,” the Atlantic’s Ed Yong explains. Covid-19’s R0 is substantially higher than 1, giving more reason for concern.

7) Spending on airlines, hotels, and cruises is collapsing

Rani Molla/Recode by Vox

Warnings to avoid crowds, and cancellations of major gatherings like conferences and parades, have put a damper on travel in the US, and the consequences for airlines have been dire. According to Earnest Research, spending on airlines fell 16.5 percent in the last week of February relative to a year prior. Cruises have seen a similar dip, while hotels are only now starting to see sales mildly decline.

It’s unlikely that the economic impact will stay limited to the hospitality industry, as social distancing leads people to avoid coffee shops, restaurants, gyms, bars, etc.

For more, see Rani Molla’s write-up for Recode.

8) The US is not testing enough people

The Trump administration’s slow rollout of testing for coronavirus has become something of a national scandal, and it’s easy to see why when you compare the US testing rate to that of other affected countries. South Korea stands out for its rapid rollout of extensive testing, including through innovative drive-through testing programs.

Drive-through testing is being piloted in some parts of the US, like New Hampshire, but we still have a long way to go before we match South Korean and Chinese testing levels.

9) Why canceling events and self-quarantining is so important

Christina Animashaun/Vox

Covid-19 has quickly made large-scale gatherings and conferences unpopular if not socially frowned upon. This change arrived quickly, and may seem jarring, but it’s easier to see the logic when you understand the theory behind this kind of “social distancing” policy. The key is to “flatten the curve”: slowing the rate of increase in infections so that you spread out the cases, even if the total number doesn’t change.

Flattening the curve slows the rate at which new cases arrive in hospitals, easing the burden on health care infrastructure and improving the odds that individual patients will survive.

America’s Economy Begins to Shut Down as Pandemic Measures Take Hold. Dow Drops 2997 pts.

Markets plunge, with the Dow sinking to its worst day since 1987

The Dow was down nearly 13 percent and the Nasdaq fell more than 12 percent one day after the Fed slashed interest rates to shore up the financial system.

The fast-spreading virus has put an end to movies, date nights and other economic activity, prompting some economists to call it a U.S. recession.

Trump Urges Limits Amid Pandemic, but Stops Short of National Mandates.

President Trump issued national guidelines that included closing schools and avoiding bars, restaurants and groups of more than 10 as he prepared for months of upheaval.

Falls Short of Enacting Limits That Other Nations Required

• The measures recommended by President Trump, including avoiding gatherings of over 10 people, reflect the increasing gravity of global containment attempts.
• The European Union chief wants to seal the bloc off from almost all international travel. Italy pledged more than $28 billion for relief efforts.
• The Kentucky Derby was postponed for the first time since World War II. 

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San Francisco & Bay Area millions told to 'shelter in place' to stop spread of coronavirus. Drastic  move, first of its kind in the US, comes following a 14% increase in cases in the state.

Suddenly, Fox News sings a very different tune about coronavirus

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In Biden-Sanders Debate, V.P. Seals the Deal. Fed slashes interest rates to zero in massive intervention.

I get that the news out of the debate is that Joe Biden committed to picking a woman vice president. That’s a big deal. But there were a couple non-news things that were important too.

The first one is that Biden is not senile, does not have dementia, had no trouble in this debate uttering six or even seven sentences in a row that make sense, and handled himself fine. I suspect that any chance Bernie Sanders had to turn the tables in the way he was hoping ended in the first five minutes, by which time it was pretty clear that Biden was fully compos mentis and wasn’t going to start quoting Jack Benny routines to drive home his point.

This was really different from those early debates when he was ambushed from all sides. Then, he was verbally drowning half the time. Tonight, he was totally calm. He did maybe miss an opportunity to try to reach out to Sanders voters, but overall, he was in control of himself. It ought to make people feel more comfortable picturing him on a stage opposite Donald Trump.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell during a news conference 

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New York City to Close Public Schools. Restaurants and Bars Are Shut Down. Take outs & deliveries Only.

The move is the most far-reaching and disruptive the city has taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said Sunday that five people in the city had died from the coronavirus, all of whom had underlying health issues.

New York State is closing its courts.

Cuomo asks Trump for military to help fight the pandemic.

The number of confirmed cases in New York is now over 700.

New York’s presidential primary could be delayed.

All NYC public libraries are closed.


...Sarah Blesener for The New York Times

“I’m very, very concerned that we see a rapid spread of this disease, and it’s time to take more dramatic measures,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said late Sunday afternoon. “This is a decision I have taken with no joy and a lot of pain.”

Public schools in Long Island and Westchester County will also close this week, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Sunday. The governor ordered New York City school officials to develop a plan within 24 hours on how to offer child care to students of parents who work in essential industries like health care and to provide food to students who will need meals.

In New York City, the schools will be closed on Monday for all students and staff, but teachers will be asked to report to work later in the week for training on how to provide remote learning, Mr. de Blasio said.

In recent days, a growing chorus of local politicians, public health experts, parents and educators have ramped up the pressure on the city to shut down schools. By Sunday afternoon, even Mr. Cuomo said the city schools should close within 24 hours, as soon as the city came up with a plan for child care and food.

Student attendance has plummeted as nervous parents have kept their children at home. Teachers concerned about the virus organized “sick outs” and flooded Twitter and 311 with pleas to shut down schools. And as the outbreak continued, each day seemed to bring another major set of school closures in cities and states with smaller outbreaks than New York’s.

New York City’s school system stands apart from every other in the country for its sheer size and particularly vulnerable student population, including enough homeless children — 114,000 — to fill an entire small city school district.

Even if only half of New York City’s students reported to school, the district would still be larger than any in the country except for Los Angeles Unified, which announced on Friday that its schools would close for at least two weeks.

Public health experts agree that effective closures would have to last for the length of the virus, which could take months. And students getting together in their homes or other places outside of school could diminish the effectiveness of closures, experts said. Mr. de Blasio was blunt about the prospect of keeping children apart in the weeks and months ahead.

“We’re not going to convince teenagers not to gather,” he said.

Facing mounting pressure, New York City officials announced on Sunday a sweeping shutdown of tens of thousands of bars and restaurants, except for delivery and pickup services, leaving waiters, bartenders and baristas uncertain about their next paycheck.

The mayor also ordered the closings of nightclubs, movie theaters, small theater houses and concert venues. The closings go into effect on Tuesday morning, for an indefinite period. he moves dovetailed with new guidelines issued on Sunday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; they recommended that local governments and individuals cancel large gatherings of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks. The recommendations apply to “planned or spontaneous” events, including conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events and weddings.

Earlier on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that people were “going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing.”

He urged young people to practice social distancing out of fear they could spread the disease to older people.

But while many government and health officials urged people to observe such distancing, some Americans had ignored those pleas, including in New York City. A handful of elected officials called for a total shutdown of bars and restaurants following reports of large crowds over the weekend.

Corey Johnson, NYC Council Speaker, said that grocery stores, bodegas, pharmacies and banks should remain open. He said all levels of government should intervene to ease the losses of business owners, provide financial assistance to affected workers and help parents with child care.

On Sunday afternoon, Governor Andrew Cuomo changed course: He called on businesses to shutter voluntarily, as has happened in Boston, Cleveland and other parts of the nation.

“I’m asking them voluntarily to shut down their bar, their restaurant, their gymnasium,” Mr. Cuomo said. “Let’s see what they do. If nobody does it, then we can take more actions.”

The mayor said the city would prepare teachers for remote learning this week, as well as open sites for at-need students to pick up food and “learning centers” for the children of essential city workers like health care employees.

“It has never been attempted by the City of New York at this scale, to say the least,” Mr. de Blasio said. “It is a system that will improve with each week.”

In Albany, state legislators were still planning on returning to the State Capitol on Monday, even after two members of the Assembly who represent parts of Brooklyn — Helene Weinstein and Charles Barron — tested positive for the virus.

Some lawmakers raised concerns about that prospect, considering the often close quarters in the legislative chambers as well as conference rooms where members meet, but Mr. Cuomo was adamant that lawmakers should return to the capital, likening it to service in war times.

“Should the military not show up? Should the police officers not show up?” the governor said, adding that “If we can ask nurses to put on a hazmat suit and take blood, we can ask elected officials to come and sit at a desk and vote on a piece of legislation.”

Mr. Cuomo, who announced on Saturday that the statehouse would be closed to visitors, said he needed the Legislature to be present to authorize the laws and the measures the state may need to fight the outbreak. The state’s budget is also due April 1.

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